Tennis Betting Advice - June 2023
French Open - Day 5: Ride the rollercoaster at 210/1...
Thursday 1st June 2023
Good morning and welcome to Day 5 of your French Open 2023 Daily Service. Play starts at 10am…
Every day of the tournament, I’ll be hitting your inbox with my analysis, picks & advice for the second Grand Slam of the season…
A long journey, with small margins…
We were on the end of a couple of tough, three-set losses in the women’s event yesterday. With both 100/1 Liudmila Samsonova and 66/1 Qinwen Zheng edged out in final-set scraps.
Hard to swallow on the day. But those matches were close. As were our two Day 4 match accas, with 4 out of 5 winning legs in Wednesday’s men’s selections, and 4 out of 6 in the women’s.
At the big prices that we go for - it only takes one…
As it stands, we currently have two names in the book as 100/1 Each Way chances. After another impressive performance from Sloane Stephens yesterday, which saw the American’s Outright Winner price chopped in half. Although Unibet are still going 100/1 this morning…
Our current open, Each Way bets in the French Open Outright Winner markets:
Men’s - Taylor Fritz @ 100/1, 80/1
Women’s - Sloane Stephens @ 150/1, 100/1
Stephens is through to the 3rd round. Fritz plays in the 2nd round today.
I’m monitoring the Outright markets, and tracking the early form. We’ll be making some more moves in the days ahead.
On to today’s match advice now…
Iga in a hurry…
You won’t see a shorter match favourite than Iga Swiatek today, priced at around 1/50 (1.02) to beat world no.102 Claire Liu…
The world no.1 & reigning French Open champion might not have been at her imperious best (yet) this spring. But Iga has still been posting those steamroller results that she’s become known for - including three 6-0 ‘bagel’ sets in her last five matches. With one of those coming in the 1st round here at Roland Garros on Tuesday.
With all due respect to today’s American opponent, the Pole operates at several leagues above Liu. These two met at Indian Wells in March, and Swiatek crushed Claire, 6-0, 6-1…
Skybet have a ‘Request-a-Bet’ market for a repeat of that score-line today, with Swiatek to win 6-0, 6-1 priced as a 33/1 shot…
Sky also dangle 22/1 for the Swiatek 6-0, 6-0 ‘Whitewash.’ Otherwise known as the double-bagel.
In the 1st Set Score market, Swiatek 6-0 can be backed at 6/1 with Ladbrokes, Coral, and Unibet, and around 5/1 elsewhere. It is worth noting, however, that those three most recent clay-court bagels from the world no.1 all came in the 2nd Sets - with Iga finding her rhythm and starting to really put the hammer down, once in front on the scoreboard.
2nd Set Correct Score markets are harder to come by. And it doesn’t help that Oddschecker doesn't even list this bet on their site…
You can get Swiatek 6-0 in the 2nd Set though. And I see it as my job to do some of that shopping around for you. I tend to open as many browser windows as my computer can handle, scouring the bookies’ websites to find what I’m looking for…
Skybet have Swiatek 6-0 in the 2nd Set at 9/2 (5.5). With that price also available at Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Boylesports, Betway.
And Unibet beat those 9/2 odds by offering 5/1 (6.0) for Under 6.5 Games in the 2nd Set - which would pay out on a 6-0 score in the 2nd Set for either player. Although if Claire Liu manages to turn the tables and ‘bagel’ Iga Swiatek today, I’m tempted to say I’ll give you the money myself…
That 2nd Set bet is my pick at 5/1 or 9/2.
And, such is my confidence that Swiatek will post another dominant victory this afternoon, I’m going to advise double the stake on Under 16.5 Total Games in the match, which is available at Evens (2.0) and 10/11 (1.91)...
That pays out, for example, on a Swiatek win with Liu winning no more than 4 games. Such as 6-2, 6-2, or 6-1, 6-3, and so on. Including 6-4, 6-0 - which was the exact score-line in Iga’s 1st-round win over world no.70 Cristina Bucsa.
Alternatively, have your main bet on Swiatek -7.5 Games Handicap at around 5/6 (1.83), which essentially covers the same outcomes.
To recap, if you’re following me to the letter, that’s a 1-point stake on Swiatek 6-0 in the 2nd Set, and 2 pts on Under 16.5 Games (or Swiatek -7.5 Games Handicap).
Set Betting picks - at massive odds…
We talked about long matches the other day, and I reckon we could see some rollercoaster scoreboards on Day 5…
I’ve got these three matches down as close-run affairs today. And going after the very biggest prices - with the potential of exciting rewards from small stakes - these are my picks in Set Betting markets…
Best prices with William Hill.
Men’s:
Alex De Minaur to win 3-2 v Thomas Etcheverry @ 11/2 (6.5)
Aslan Karatsev to win 3-2 v Frances Tiafoe @ 11/2 (6.5)
Women’s:
Bernarda Pera to win 2-1 v Donna Vekic @ 4/1 (5.0)
I’m saying 0.5 pt on each of those as singles. And with the chance of glory, 0.5 pt on the 210/1 treble, too.
Play starts from 10am…
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Ones to Watch picks - French Open
See above for full details
Iga Swiatek v Claire Liu:
Main bet. Total Games: Under 16.5 Games @ Evens (2.0) William Hill (listed under ‘Alternative Total Games 2’ market), 10/11 (1.91) Bet365, Skybet, 9/10 (1.9) Unibet, 20/23 (1.87) BetVictor, 5/6 (1.83) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, 4/5 (1.8) Betway, Sporting Index Fixed Odds
Smaller bet. Total Games - Set 2: Under 6.5 Games @ 5/1 (6.0) Unibet. Or 2nd Set Correct Score: Swiatek 6-0 @ 9/2 (5.5) Skybet, Bet365, Betfred (listed under ‘Other’ markets), Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, Betway
Set Betting picks:
Alex De Minaur to win 3-2 v Thomas Etcheverry @ 11/2 (6.5) William Hill, 5/1 (6.0) and 9/2 (5.5) in general
Aslan Karatsev to win 3-2 v Frances Tiafoe @ 11/2 (6.5) William Hill, 5/1 (6.0) and 9/2 (5.5) in general
Bernarda Pera to win 2-1 v Donna Vekic @ 4/1 (5.0) William Hill, Unibet, 7/2 (4.5) in general
Treble: De Minaur 3-2, Karatsev 3-2, Pera 2-1 @ 210/1 William Hill, 170/1+ Unibet, Ladbrokes, Coral, 154/1 Boylesports, 135/1 Bet365, BetVictor
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You can watch the French Open live on Eurosport.
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Day 6 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone