Tennis Betting Advice - June 2023
French Open - Day 8: Expect drama in Paris at 168/1...
Sunday 4th June 2023
Good morning and welcome to Day 8 of your French Open 2023 Daily Service. Play starts at 10am…
Every day of the tournament, I’ll be hitting your inbox with my analysis, picks & advice for the second Grand Slam of the season…
Continuations of a theme…
Iga Swiatek was dishing out the bagels again yesterday. The world no.1 cleaned up on the scoreboard, winning her 3rd-round match against Xinyu Wang, 6-0, 6-0.
The reigning champion needed less than an hour to seal that victory. In stark comparison, the long matches continued elsewhere at Roland Garros on Saturday…
Including our latest 2-1 Set Betting correct score, with Beatriz Haddad Maia coming from a set down and saving a match point to beat Ekaterina Alexandrova, 5-7, 6-4, 7-5. Landing our 2-1 set selection at odds of 7/2 (4.5). In a twisting & turning encounter that lasted almost three hours.
As have been the ups and downs in week one, our latest teenage Ones to Watch pick, Mirra Andreeva, was on the wrong end of a 2-1 scoreline. With Coco Gauff coming from a set down to eventually take out the upcoming 16-year-old - after a first set that lasted just over an hour (longer than the entire Swiatek-Wang match).
One of the three favourites for the women’s title dropped out of contention yesterday. With Elena Rybakina pulling out through illness. Rybakina started the tournament as a 6/1 shot - but punters backing that particular single-figure favourite won’t be seeing their charge go any further this time.
Meanwhile, at triple-figure odds, we have three players running for us…
Backing Francisco Cerundolo proved the right move yesterday. The Argentinean showed his clay-court prowess, taking out our original 100/1 pick, Taylor Fritz.
While Nicolas Jarry continued to show his serving abilities, thumping down 15 Aces and winning 86% of his 1st Serve Points against Marcos Giron, facing just two break points. And booking his place in the Last 16 of a Major for the first time in his career…
Cerundolo and Jarry will both be in action in the 4th round on Monday. This evening, we have another 100/1 shot looking to join them in week two…
It’s a tall ask for Sloane Stephens to get past tournament second-favourite and world no.2, Aryna Sabalenka. But the American has taken a set off the Belarusian in all three of their past meetings…
And I reckon the underdog billing might just suit Sloane here. If Sabalenka gets stressed, Stephens may be able to pile on the pressure…
Stephens v Sabalenka has been given the headline night-match slot on today’s schedule. With all the talk about men’s (best-of-five-set) matches dominating the evening sessions, the French Open organisers will be hoping for a full three sets and a good couple of hours of entertainment for the crowd in this one…
Our current open, Each Way bets in the French Open Outright Winner markets:
Men’s - Francisco Cerundolo @ 100/1
Men’s - Nicolas Jarry @ 125/1, 100/1
Women’s - Sloane Stephens @ 150/1, 100/1
Set Betting picks…
Sticking with the long-matches theme, here are my three selections for the long and winding road today. All three players to win - all favourites in the standard Match Winner betting - pays less than 2/1. But zoom in on the magic combination of Set Betting scores, and we’re looking at more like 150/1…
Once again Ladbrokes & Coral have the industry-best prices on the full house here. With Set Betting markets generally available with all bookmakers.
Play starts from 10am UK time, with this potential slug-fest in the men’s…
Karen Khachanov v Lorenzo Sonego
Set Betting: Khachanov to win 3-2 @ 5/1 (6.0)
This is the world no.11 Khachanov v world no.48 Sonego. Khachanov has made the semi finals at the last two Grand Slams. While Sonego had the match of his life in the last round, coming from two sets to nil down to beat Andrey Rublev, 3-2. I fancy the Russian to prevail by that score in this one, though…
Karen leads the head-to-head v the Italian, 2-1. And I’m backing him to hold the most consistent level over the course of what could be a very long opening match this morning.
Carlos Alcaraz v Lorenzo Musetti
Set Betting: Alcaraz to win 3-2 @ 6/1 (7.0)
The organisers must’ve been tempted to put this one in the night session. Two of the most fun to watch, talented, and exciting young players in the men’s game. Expect drop-shots, roars, chest-beating, skidding and sliding.. beautiful one-handed backhands from Musetti, and moments of physics-defying athleticism from the Spaniard.
The world no.1 is rightly the favourite. But Musetti beat Alcaraz on clay in the ATP Hamburg final last year. Both of their previous encounters have been on clay, both going to the three sets.
At Grand Slam level, world no.18 Lorenzo has been two sets up against a big name a couple of times before, but failed to get over the line on both occasions - against Novak Djokovic here at the French Open in 2021, and then again here in Paris last year against Stefanos Tsitsipas. Musetti is up to a new career-best ranking coming into today’s match, but Carlos is so good, he would be my choice to find a way through if it goes the distance to five sets.
Elina Svitolina v Daria Kasatkina
Set Betting: Kasatkina to win 2-1 @ 16/5 (4.2)
Nobody beats Daria Kastakina seven times in a row…? This is an interesting match-up. Svitolina holds a 6-0 career record v Kasatkina. But those wins were mostly posted some time ago, with the Ukrainian only recently returning to the tour after becoming a mother.
Svitolina’s comeback has been one of the stories of the tournament so far, with battling 2-1 victories in the last two rounds. Having won WTA Strasbourg in the build-up to the French Open, Elina is on a run of 10 wins from her last 12 clay-court matches.
On the other hand, 2022 semi-finalist Kasatkina has quietly been one of the most impressive performers in week one. With the Russian winning three out of three matches without dropping a set. Daria is the clear favourite on the rankings: world no.9 versus no.192. Although for reasons discussed above, today’s match may be a lot closer than those rankings suggest.
I propose the same play as yesterday here. Three singles on those Set Betting scores. Along with splitting a stake across a Trixie - which consists of three doubles, and the 100/1+ treble…
Ones to Watch picks - French Open
See above for full details
Khachanov to win 3-2 v Sonego @ 5/1 (6.0) William Hill, Boylesports, SpreadEx Sports, 19/4 (5.75) Ladbrokes, Coral, 9/2 (5.5) and 4/1 (5.0) in general
Alcaraz to win 3-2 v Musetti @ 6/1 (7.0) Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, 11/2 (6.5) and 5/1 (6.0) in general
Kasatkina to win 2-1 v Svitolina @ 16/5 (4.2) Ladbrokes, Coral, 3/1 (4.0) and 11/4 (3.75) in general
Trixie: Khachanov 3-2, Alcaraz 3-2, Kasatkina 2-1 @ 168/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, 158/1 William Hill, 140/1+ Betfred, Boylesports, 120/1 BetVictor
You can watch the French Open live on Eurosport.
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Day 9 email.
Want to get in touch? Email me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Enjoy the tennis…