Tennis Betting Advice - June 2023
French Open - Day 9: Marathon picks at 12/1...
Monday 5th June 2023
Good morning and welcome to Day 9 of your French Open 2023 Daily Service. Play starts at 10am…
Every day of the tournament, I’ll be hitting your inbox with my analysis, picks & advice for the second Grand Slam of the season…
Marathon runners…
We’ve been discussing ‘long matches’ as a theme at this year’s French Open. And as soon as I saw that Sara Sorribes Tormo and Beatriz Haddad Maia would be facing each other in the 4th round this morning, I only had one topic on my mind…
So far this season, 37 women’s matches have gone over the three-hour mark. Including yesterday’s French Open match between Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Elise Mertens, which ended 3-6, 7-6, 6-3…
Beatriz Haddad Maia has been involved in three of those 37 marathon matches this year. In fact, she’s been accountable for two of the top four, and three of the top 15…
It almost goes without saying that a three-hour-plus women’s match is likely to go the distance to the full three sets. The score-lines in Haddad Maia’s three biggest epics this season:
6-7, 7-6, 6-3
4-6, 7-6, 7-5
6-4, 6-7, 7-6
And here in Paris last week, the Brazilian’s last two matches have taken the long route, too:
5-7, 6-4, 7-5
6-2, 5-7, 6-4
This morning’s opponent Sara Sorribes Tormo has also got some significant previous form for playing out epic encounters. I’ve seen her dig in for some of the longest, war-of-attrition rallies you’ll ever see in a professional tennis match.
And with the balls playing slow and heavy at this year’s French Open, we could be in for a proper slugfest in this match…
Having been out injured at the start of the year, Sorribes Tormo only got her 2023 season up and running in April. Last year, the Spaniard was well established as one of the prime candidates for producing long, three-set matches. With Sara sharing responsibility for the longest women’s encounter of 2022, two of the top four, and three of the top 10. With the scoreboards in her two longest matches reading:
7-6, 4-6, 6-3
7-6, 2-6, 7-6
In the 2021 season, Sara was at it again. Once more playing her role in three of the 10 longest, three-hours-and-counting battles in the women’s game:
7-6, 6-7, 7-5
6-4, 5-7, 7-6
5-7, 6-3, 6-4
And if we look at the head-to-head between Sorribes Tormo and Haddad Maia, the formbook is level at 2-2. With two of their last three meetings going to the full three sets. With a 2-1 win for Sara on hard courts in 2022 (6-4, 5-7, 6-3), and a 2-1 result for Beatriz on clay in 2019 (6-7, 6-2, 6-3).
There’s no need to talk about the loneliness of the long-distance runner today. These two are well-equipped to keep each other company out on Court Suzanne-Lenglen this morning…
They’ll be out on court from 10am UK time…
The bookies make the higher-ranked Haddad Maia the favourite to win this match, but not by much. With the 27-year-old Brazilian priced at 8/13 (1.62), and the 26-year-old Spaniard at 5/4 (2.25).
On the long-match theme, markets we can target here include:
Total Games
Total Sets (3)
Setting Betting (2-1) score
Set Correct Scores (7-5 and 7-6)
Go the Distance
Over 21.5 Games is the general line today. All 12 of the match score-lines that I’ve listed above involving these players have gone well over that line (22+ Total Games). That’s my flagship bet for this match - an outcome that can be achieved in only two sets, for example with a score-line of 6-4, 7-5. And the numbers say we can anticipate it going higher and longer than that…
All 12 matches mentioned above would also have paid out on 3 Total Sets. You’ll get around 5/4 (2.25) for 3 Sets or ‘Over 2.5 Sets’ today.
And all 12 matches in that sample of evidence also produced at least one set that was settled by the 7-5 or 7-6 score - the two highest scores possible in a set of tennis…
William Hill offer 11/4 (3.75) for a Tiebreak in the Match. Bet365 go 5/2 (3.5) for the same bet with a different name: Over 0.5 Total Tiebreaks in the Match (eg. at least one 7-6 set).
Bet365 also have a ‘Go the Distance’ market, with the Yes option at 14/1… a bet that pays out if the match is decided by a final-set tiebreak, 7-6 in the third set. That has occurred in three of the 12 match score-lines listed in today’s analysis.
For the headline bet here, I’m advising a 2-pt stake on Over 21.5 Games in the match. And for smaller bets, 0.5-pt each on the Haddad Maia 7-5 correct scores in the 1st Set and 2nd Set, with odds of 12/1 available…
You may also wish to play the 7-6 (tiebreak) scores. But with breaks of serve likely to be prominent, I give the slight edge to the 7-5 score as a big-price ‘high’ option…
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Our 100/1 book…
We lost 150/1-shot Sloane Stephens in a close match last night. We have two 100/1 men in action in the 4th round today. Both are the underdogs, but both have beaten today’s respective opponents on clay before - Cerundolo takes on Holger Rune, and Jarry plays Casper Ruud…
Our current open, Each Way bets in the French Open Outright Winner markets:
Men’s - Francisco Cerundolo @ 100/1
Men’s - Nicolas Jarry @ 125/1, 100/1
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Ones to Watch picks - French Open
See above for full details
Sara Sorribes Tormo v Beatriz Haddad Maia - 10am:
Main bet. Over 21.5 Games @ Evens (2.0) William Hill (‘Alternative Total Games 2’ market), 49/50 (1.98) Unibet, 10/11 (1.91) Ladbrokes, Coral, 9/10 (1.9) Betway, 4/5 (1.8) Bet365, Skybet
Smaller bet. 1st Set Correct Score: Haddad Maia 7-5 @ 13/1 Unibet, 12/1 Bet365, William Hill, Betway, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 11/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway, 10/1 Boylesports, 9/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Smaller bet. 2nd Set Correct Score: Haddad Maia 7-5 @ 12/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, Betfred (listed under ‘Other’ markets), 11/1 Betway
Note: Set Correct Scores also available in-play.
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You can watch the French Open live on Eurosport.
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Day 10 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone