Tennis Betting Advice - June 2023
French Open - Day 10: Once more unto the breach, dear friends...
Tuesday 6th June 2023
Good morning and welcome to Day 10 of your French Open 2023 Daily Service. Play starts at 10am.
The longest match of the year…
Forgive the slightly melodramatic choice of subject line for today’s email. I had to pull myself out of the doldrums yesterday evening, having watched hours (and hours) of nerve-jangling tennis. Only to see both of our 100/1 selections edged out, in matches in which both Nicolas Jarry and then Francisco Cerundolo had chances to win. Especially the latter, who went down in an agonising final-set champions’ tiebreak to Holger Rune.
Of course - of course - 100/1 shots aren’t supposed to win. But sometimes they do. And I’m always looking for an outsider with potential. Today, for one last foray into the French Open 2023 Outright Winner markets at prices that appeal to me (once more unto the breach…), I’ve got a pair of players who are looking ready to finally fulfil their Grand Slam promise. See below…
On the match-betting front, we ground out a profit from the predicted Long Match between Beatriz Haddad Maia and Sara Sorribes Tormo. As anticipated, it was a gruelling, enthralling, war of attrition. Lasting three hours and 51 minutes, making it not only the longest women’s match of this year’s French Open, but also the longest women’s match of the season to date.
The recommended main bet on Over 21.5 Games was landed after the first two sets, with the final Total Games tally settling at 34 games - Haddad Maia coming from a set and a break down to win 6-7, 6-3, 7-5.
The returns from that match would’ve been significantly greater had the Brazilian managed to bag odds of 12/1 for the 7-5 score in one of the first two sets, instead of in the third. The 3rd Set Correct Score market is not available pre-match. Beatriz served for the set at 6-5 in the first. The match was also just one game away from going to a final-set tiebreak, which as mentioned was a 14/1 shot in Bet365’s Go the Distance market.
Anyway, that’s enough violins and what-could’ve-beens for now. I’ve been in this game plenty long enough to know that the next joyous moment is only ever just around the corner…
Long-time Ones to Watch member Sam brought good news yesterday, having dabbled in the spread betting markets with a Buy (bet high) of the Total Games in the Haddad Maia v Sorribes Tormo match, at 23.2… the final result of 34 games giving a profit of 10.8 x his £10 stakes. Nice one, Sam.
99/1 for these two to come good…
Outside of the four biggest favourites in the current French Open outright markets, as the tournament heads into the quarter finals today. I believe we can still squeeze some juice out of the lemon by backing two in-form players, who for different reasons are both on redemption missions this Paris fortnight - and looking quietly good to achieve their long-standing Grand Slam goals…
In the men’s, star names Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic remain the clear favourites for the trophy. But on the other side of the draw, ALEXANDER ZVEREV looks to have timed his return to form & fitness, bang on the Hollywood script…
Having suffered a terrible injury here on the Roland Garros clay 12 months ago, 26-year-old Sascha is now back in Paris and looking ready to complete what would be a supremely impressive comeback. The German is through to the quarter finals, where he will be the big favourite to get past promising newcomer, Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Get through that one tomorrow, and Zverev will face Holger Rune or Casper Ruud in the semi final.
Zverev has come so close to winning a Grand Slam before. At the US Open 2020 (the one played in an empty stadium). Alex served for the championship, only to ultimately lose a five-set thriller to Dominic Thiem. Earlier that night in New York, Zverev had raced into a two-set lead, and was a break ahead in the third. He’s progressed mentally from those two gut-wrenching events on court - the US Open 2020 near miss, and the career-threatening French Open 2022 fall…
Alex has also come close on other occasions at the Majors - a semi-finalist in Australia in 2020. And here at Roland Garros, the semis in both 2021 and 2022, the second of those being cruelly cut short by the injury. Zverev is going in the book at 9/1 (10.0) or 17/2 (9.5) Each Way today.
In the women’s, the big two to beat in the betting are Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka. Beyond that admittedly formidable pair, and available at similar or bigger prices to Zverev, ONS JABEUR appeals to me as the most likely challenger from here…
The Tunisian is my second selection today, at 10/1 or 9/1 Each Way. Ons plays in the quarter finals tomorrow, where she will go off as the favourite to beat Haddad Maia, with the Brazilian making her last-eight debut in a Grand Slam.
Jabeur has also been on the comeback from injury this year. Indeed, I was wary to back her in the early rounds this fortnight. But the super-talented 28-year-old - who, like Zverev, is a former world no.2, and a Grand Slam runner-up - has been mighty impressive so far in Paris 2023…
All of her trademark moves have been in fine working order, namely the eye-catching flicks, slices, and drop-shots that can send opponents’ heads spinning.
We were on Jabeur last year for Wimbledon, and garnered an Each Way payout from her 40/1 debut in a Major final. She followed that up with a run to the US Open final. Two runner-up trophies hurt. But Ons is made of strong stuff - and she looks ready to finally fulfil her promise…
My selections here are 1-point Each Way bets on both Zverev and Jabeur. And also, for smaller stakes and bigger rewards, a 0.5-pt Each Way double on Zverev & Jabeur - with that dream ticket worth 99/1…
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Ones to Watch picks - French Open
See above for full details
Outright Winner - Each Way (1/3 odds 1-2 places)
Men’s:
Women’s:
Each Way double:
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You can watch the French Open live on Eurosport.
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 11 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone