Tennis Betting Advice - June 2023

French Open - Day 14: Women's Final...

Saturday 10th June 2023

Good morning and welcome to Day 14 of your French Open 2023 Daily Service. The women’s final takes place at 2pm…

Straight onto the grass…

It’s five-set men’s tennis too much? Are the physical and mental demands of playing the game at the very highest level, hour after hour, day after day, taking their toll?

When tennis fans get short-changed, it’s certainly an argument that comes up.

For example, at last year’s Wimbledon, Rafael Nadal won a gruelling five-set epic in the quarter finals… only to then pull out injured, and not even attempt to set foot on court for the semi final. It’s really not good for the sport to see a walkover in a semi final of one of the season’s four annual showcase events.

The Roland Garros crowd and a global TV audience in the millions were left disappointed yesterday. Carlos Alcaraz didn’t pull out injured. The young Spaniard stayed out on court to complete the match. But if you saw that semi-final encounter, you’ll have witnessed a brilliant first two sets - followed by two damp squibs, in which the world no.1 was reduced to a shadow of his usual dynamic self. Allowing Novak Djokovic to cruise into the final with a pair of fast, one-sided 6-1, 6-1 sets to end the match.

That flat ending pretty much sums up how this tournament has gone for my picks. The Over 38.5 Total Games bet was looking for much on track for the first couple of hours while Alcaraz was going at it full pelt with Novak (6-3, 5-7…).

If this is your first event with me at Ones to Watch, then the message is to keep the faith. The summer tennis schedule rolls on fast, and the next big opportunity is only ever just around the corner…

There’s no shortage of tennis on the calendar, that’s for sure. That’s part of the problem some would argue, with a relentless playing and travel schedule that can lead to injuries and burnouts for the players. On the other hand, it’s great to have a busy calendar of tennis to look forward to, almost every single week of the year…

The French Open on clay isn’t over yet. But the grass-court campaign has already begun. There are now fewer than four tournaments taking place on the green lawns next week, with the ATP & WTA Tours visiting the Netherlands, Germany - and England…

WTA Nottingham will see the women in action next week, with qualifying rounds under way already. And in the men’s, the 2023 grass season is already in play, with two-time Wimbledon champion Andy Murray competing in the semi finals of the lower-tier ATP Challenger event in Surbiton this afternoon.

Lots to look at, and lots to look forward to. And remember, we already have three names in the book at Each Way outsider prices for Wimbledon next month: Karolina Muchova in the women’s, and Taylor Fritz and Karen Khachanov in the men’s.

Back to the clay for today though, and this afternoon’s French Open women’s final…

Iga Swiatek v Karolina Muchova

This match-up pits world no.1 and defending champ Swiatek against Grand Slam final debutant Muchova, who is ranked no.43

The bookies paint a one-sided picture. Swiatek is short odds-on to win, at 2/15 (1.13). While Muchova is 5/1 (6.0) in general, and a best-price 6/1 (7.0) with Bet365.

Two weeks ago, at the start of the tournament, the Polish three-time Major winner went off as top seed and the 5/6 (1.83) favourite to defend her trophy. While the unseeded Czech was trading as a rank outsider at odds of 100/1, 80/1 and 66/1.

Unlike some maiden Grand Slam finalists of recent years, Muchova is not expected to freeze in the spotlight today. Underdog backers can point to Karolina’s remarkable 5-0 career match win-loss record against Top 3 players…

That stat includes the three-set victory over world no.2 Aryna Sabalenka in the semi finals. Although with the Belarusian losing from 5-2 and match-point up in the deciding set, there is perhaps a sense that Muchova had her magic moment there and then. Another school of thought would be that that back-from-the-brink victory has the feel of a ‘name-on-the-trophy/ written-in-the-stars’ moment…

Consider also that Muchova holds a 2-0 head-to-head over Swiatek. The upside: both were on clay. The caveat: both were at much smaller events, including one in a non-tour competition set up in 2020 to provide some pro-tennis during lockdown. And both were before Iga first won the French Open, and went on to become no.1.

For what it’s worth though, those 2019 and 2020 encounters both went to the full three sets.

First-time finalists at Roland Garros…

Muchova’s run to the final this week marks the fifth year running that the French Open has produced a first-time women’s Grand Slam finalist. All at big odds. Those names being:

2019 - Marketa Vondrousova (40/1) - runner-up
2020 - Iga Swiatek (100/1) - winner
2021 - Barbora Krejcikova (175/1) - winner
2021 - Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (150/1) - runner-up
2022 - Coco Gauff (28/1) - runner-up
2023 - Karolina Muchova (100/1)...

Czech connection…

Here at Ones to Watch we were on two of those (Vondrousova and Swiatek).

And it’s also worth noting that, like Muchova, both Vondrousova and Krejcikova are also from the impressive talent pool that comes out of the Czech Republic

With several young & upcoming teenage stars waiting in the wings in Czech tennis, too. Including the Fruhvirtova sisters, 18-year-old Linda and 16-year-old Brenda. As well as 18-year-old Linda Noskova, and 17-year-old Sara Bejlek. Lookout for those names in the months and years to come.

In terms of appealing price opportunities for this afternoon’s final between Swiatek and Muchova. Two bets stand out for me…

With the three-set route again looking the most likely way that the underdog victory can come off here: Muchova to win 2-1 at 10/1+ in the Set Betting market.

And with some strong serving from both women, the chances of a long match - and a tiebreak set - are a little better than odds of 4/1 suggest, in my opinion.

  • Swiatek has served 7 aces in the tournament so far, winning the Most Aces bet in 4 of her 6 matches

  • Muchova has served 12 aces, with 6 of them coming in her semi-final win over world no.2 Sabalenka

Both Swiatek and Muchova won tiebreak sets in the semi finals (7-6 score). And a tight and/ edgy scoreboard could see Tiebreak bets landed today at odds of 4/1…


Ones to Watch picks - French Open

See above for full details

Iga Swiatek v Karolina Muchova

Women’s Final - 2pm, Eurosport

  • Set Betting: Muchova to win 2-1 @ 13/1 Unibet, 10/1 Bet365, Betfred, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral

  • Tiebreak in the Match: Yes @ 4/1 Skybet, BetVictor, Bet365, Unibet, 15/4 (4.75) William Hill, 10/3 (4.33) Boylesports, 13/4 (4.25) Betway. Note: some bookies call this bet Over 0.5 Tiebreaks


I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 15 email, looking at the Men’s Final. And also looking ahead to next week’s four tournaments on the grass

Want to get in touch? Email me at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch