Tennis Betting Advice - June 2023
The Return of the Maple Leaf Missile...
Monday 12th June 2023
The grass-court season is here. And Milos Raonic is back...
A runner-up to Andy Murray in the 2016 Wimbledon final, Milos has become the forgotten man of top-flight tennis in recent years.
Before injuries knocked him almost completely out of the sport, Raonic scaled the rankings to as high as no.3 in the world.
The Canadian, armed with a HUGE serve, a stack of aces, and an ice-man temperament. Racked up eight ATP titles between 2011 and 2016.
At Grand Slam level, the 6'5" model pro showed his top-tier credentials on several occasions. Reaching the quarter finals in Australia in both 2019 and 2020. And the French Open quarters in 2014...
But grass has always been the surface where I've liked him most. He has the game for it. That booming, sliding serve. A beefy forehand. And a willingness and ability to come to the net.
Raonic's Wimbledon record speaks for itself:
Semi Final - 2014
Final, Runner-Up - 2016
Quarter Final - 2017
Quarter Final - 2018
If injuries hadn't struck him down, Milos would likely boast an even better SW19 record...
His history at the All England Club includes a win over Roger Federer in the 2016 semi final...
And putting a stop to Nick Kyrgios' run in 2014, beating Nick in the quarter finals after the Aussie had announced himself on the world stage by taking out Rafael Nadal. (Kyrgios went on to make the Wimbledon final himself last year - and returns to action this week in Stuttgart; his first tournament appearance of 2023.)
Right now, it's nice not to have to talk about Milos Raonic in the past tense. He was mighty impressive in his 1st-round win at the Libema Open in the Netherlands today. The Canadian's first match win for two years. And his first match on grass since right back in 2019.
It's good to have Milos back. But there is little room for sentiment when it comes to playing the bookies' Outright Winner markets. We must go on price, and performance...
For the latter; well, I can tell you that I watched Raonic's comeback match this Monday afternoon. And I was surprised at how sharp he looked and how well he was hitting the ball...
As was the TV commentator, and pretty much everyone else I've seen comment online. All barring his coach, that is - who said earlier this spring, when Raonic's protected-ranking Wimbledon entry was announced, that Milos wasn't coming back for the money. He's got enough of that to never need worry again. He's coming back to give it 'one last shot' (in the player's own words). For the love of the game, and because he still wants to win...
Most importantly from Monday's 6-3, 6-4 win over world no.39 Miomir Kecmanovic. A match in which Raonic went off as a 13/8 (2.63) underdog with Bet365. The 'Maple Leaf Missile' was in fine form on his serve...
One swallow does not a summer make. But if Milos can replicate these consistent serving levels. Then he really could be one of the feel-good, underdog success stories of this month's grass-court season.
Raonic won 92% of his 1st Serve Points. And smacked down 15 Aces.
Before the start of play at this week's ATP 's-Hertogenbosch event, Raonic was 33/1 in Bet365's Outright Winner market. Working from that figure and taking into account his subsequent 13/8 match win, then Milos would be around a 12/1 shot from here...
Bet365 go 14/1 in their revised market as I write. With 16/1 the marker elsewhere. Betfred dangle 20/1. And BetVictor have stuck their neck out with a standout 28/1 on offer...
Milos says he's taking his tour comeback 'day by day.' He's a sensible guy, and that's a sensible thing for him to say. But I liked everything about his return to action today. He wants to win again.
At one stage, he had to go a whole year in recovery without even hitting a ball. That kind of thing can either finish you off, professionally speaking. Or stoke a competitive fire deep inside...
Let's take a flyer on Raonic in the Netherlands this week, at those prices mentioned above. And wait and see if any bookmakers decide to add him to their Wimbledon list as a triple-figure tempter in the days and weeks ahead. Fitness permitting, of course.
In the other side of the Libema Open field in Rosmalen, another injury-prone big server catches the eye at 33/1 and 28/1...
Alexei Popyrin has a great game when fit, and I've always been impressed by his spirit on court, and his ability to play the big points well. He could also spring a low-key surprise in this ATP 250 event, as the better-known names look to ease their way in on the grass over the next week or two.
Play resumes from 10am Tuesday, UK time. Bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets during the day's matches.
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See above for full details
ATP 's-Hertogenbosch - Libema Open
Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Milos Raonic @ 28/1 BetVictor, 20/1 Betfred, 16/1 Unibet, Boylesports, 14/1 Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral
Alexei Popyrin @ 33/1 Betfred, 28/1 BetVictor, Bet365, William Hill, Unibet, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral
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I'll be back soon with more grass-court info and analysis for you. Three weeks to go until Wimbledon...
Note: Coverage from me may be a bit intermittent over the next few weeks, with the baby due this month. I'll keep you posted, of course. But when the moment comes, I'll be offline for a bit!
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone