Tennis Betting Advice - March 2018

80/1 update - and back Osaka the outsider tonight...

Wednesday 14th March 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Indian Wells update...
  • 80/1 Kasatkina is on a roll...
  • Back Osaka the outsider tonight...

80/1 Kasatkina is on a roll...

At the big Outright Winner prices we go for we’re always going to have a colourful looking bet record, and there’s been plenty of contrast for us this week at Indian Wells...

While our 25/1 picks Julia Goerges and Marin Cilic have disappointed – both managing just one match win before crashing out of the Women’s and Men’s events respectively – the likes of 6/1 Kevin Anderson and most notably 80/1 & 66/1 Daria Kasatkina have been keeping the hopes alive for us, very nicely...

Anderson is now the 11/8 (2.38) favourite to win the Men’s 2nd Quarter. We took a best price 6/1 (7.00) for the in-form South African, pre-tournament. Kevin has two more matches to go to land that bet for us.

First up he needs to get past Pablo Carreno Busta this evening (9.30pm+). Anderson leads the head-to-head 3-0, including 2 wins over the Spaniard on North American hard courts last season.

Kasatkina is going from strength to strength. The 20-year-old Russian is showing all the signs of having her best season yet – building on a breakthrough year after appearing on our Ones to Watch in 2017 list.

Our girl ‘Dasha’ beat World No.2 and Australian Open winner Caroline Wozniacki last night, in straight sets 6-4, 7-5. Wozniacki has only lost 4 out of 21 matches all season – and 2 of those 4 defeats have been at the hands of Kasatkina.

After the match, Wozniacki said: “She outsmarted me today.”

I’ve spoken before about how I like Kasatkina’s attitude. It’s been on display both on court and off again at Indian Wells, such as in yesterday’s post-match press conference:

“I'm just going on court and actually now enjoying every minute ... I'm playing best matches against the best players. But as I say, if you want to be on the top, you have to beat the top players.”

Our big-price Each Way pick Kasatkina has another Grand Slam winner up next – she takes on World No.10 Angelique Kerber on Thursday night. The career head-to-head between those two is level at 2-2, with the Russian youngster winning 2 of their 3 meetings on hard court in 2017.  

We backed Kasatkina at a best price 80/1 or 66/1. She’s now just 10/1. We have value on our side. I’ll let you know tomorrow if I have any ‘saver bet’ advice. Ideally, we would get a player through to the semi finals before looking to back up our options, but we have such a big price here that there is a bit of room to manoeuvre if we wish.

Talking of young players on a roll...

Back Osaka the outsider tonight...

Naomi Osaka v Karolina Pliskova

WTA Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open
Match scheduled: 2am+

Rankings: Osaka #44, Pliskova #5
Head-to-Head: n/a (played in 2017 – Osaka retired at one set all)

In the top half of the Women’s Indian Wells draw, another 20-year-old is making a big-odds run to the business end of the tournament...

Japan’s Naomi Osaka has already taken out former World No.1 Maria Sharapova and Grand Slam finalist Agnieszka Radwanska, as well as fellow rising stars Sachia Vickery and Maria Sakkari.

She’s winning plenty of people over with her entertaining on-court interviews, something that shows a bit of the personality in her exciting, attacking game. Naomi is all-business during points though, and is playing with real purpose and belief.

Osaka is up against one of the absolute best women’s servers in Karolina Pliskova tonight, so will need to do well on her own serve to give herself a scoreboard foundation – before moving in for the kill in return games. That’s the plan anyway – and so far Osaka has been doing great, winning on average 75% of her 1st Serve Points per match.

The 6’1” Pliskova is around that same with an average of 73%, but crucially she has been giving up plenty of break points – including a massive 18 of them in her 3rd Round match. In comparison, Osaka has only conceded a maximum of 5 break points in one match, and an average of 4.

The World No.5 is the justified match favourite on career achievements and current rankings, but Osaka is on the up and has momentum here – and she has the dynamic game to move the tall Pliskova around the court tonight, which the Czech player won’t like much at all.

Osaka is the Match Winner value – she’s proving a dangerous outsider at this tournament and is available at underdog prices again this evening.

BET: Naomi Osaka to beat Karolina Pliskova @ 6/4
BOOKIES: 6/4 (2.50) BetVictor, 29/20 (2.45) NetBet, 10Bet, 7/5 (2.40) Betway, 11/8 (2.38) Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, SunBets
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

I’ll be tomorrow with more from Indian Wells.

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch