Tennis Betting Advice - March 2018
ATP Miami - 40/1 for a fast-rising star...
Wednesday 21st March 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
ATP Miami – Outright Winner betting...
Event: ATP Miami – Miami Open
Date: 21st March – 1st April
Surface: Hard
Yesterday we looked at the Women’s Miami draw and went for two players at big Each Way prices – Carla Suarez Navarro at 100/1 or 80/1 and Elise Mertens at 80/1 or 66/1.
The Men’s event gets underway this afternoon and I like the look of one our young guns at as big as 40/1 – see below.
Juan-Martin Del Potro beat Roger Federer in the Indian Wells final last weekend. Del Potro was 10/1 for the Indian Wells title and is just 5/1 at best to follow that up. Federer was 6/5 (2.20) last time out and is 6/4 (2.50) to defend his Miami title this week. Not much to get excited about in those prices.
Next in the betting is Novak Djokovic (14/1 at best, 12/1 in general). He’s won Miami five times in the last seven years, but Djokovic is still very much on the comeback from injury right now – he lost in the 1st Round of Indian Wells to a 7/1 match underdog ranked on the edge of the Top 100.
Grigor Dimitrov is next up at 16/1, but since winning the ATP World Tour Finals for us (at 11/1) at the end of last season, the Bulgarian hasn’t yet been able to push on in the biggest events. He fell at the first hurdle at Indian Wells, and doesn’t have a great record in Miami – going out in the 3rd Round or earlier in five of his seven visits, and never winning more than three consecutive matches here.
In fact, Miami is a tournament where many players have struggled. As Marin Cilic says:
“The conditions here are always very difficult, maybe one of the most difficult conditions we have on tour ... You can get the heat, the humidity, those cooler nights so you have to be ready for everything.”
Cilic flopped for us at Indian Wells last time out (when backed at 25/1). He’s 2nd Seed here behind Federer, and goes off at 20/1 this week. But the Croatian also has a poor record in Miami, going out in the 2nd or 3rd Round on five of his last six visits.
Next on the Outright list is German youngster Alexander Zverev (25/1). He’s another player tipped for big, big things but struggling a little so far in 2018. He’s yet to string more than three match wins together this season, and lost in his opening match at Indian Wells (a seeded player gets a 1st Round bye here but such is the size of the draw that you still need to win five matches to reach the final at a Masters event like this one).
40/1 for a fast-rising star...
That takes us down to the 33/1+ section of the list, and one fast-improving young player looks worth following right now...
Hyeon Chung @ 40/1
Hyeon Chung is one of the 10 youngsters on our Ones to Watch in 2018 list, and the 21-year-old South Korean has had an electrifying start to the season...
He burst into the mainstream by reaching the Australian Open semi finals in January as a 500/1 tournament rank outsider (before having to retire injured v Federer). He’s since followed that up with a quarter final run at Indian Wells when priced at 50/1 (also going out to Federer).
What I like about Chung is he seems to have a taste for the big time and relish the big match atmosphere. Miami is one of the most prestigious events on the calendar so this could be a good stadium-court venue for him.
His prices are starting to come down the more and more he makes his name. Chung is now up to a career-best ranking of No.23 – and it looks to be onwards and upwards from here.
We can back him at 40/1 or 33/1 this week; once he wins one of these tournaments we won’t see him at odds like that again. This could be our chance.
Chung is in the opposite side of the draw to Federer this time so can’t meet him until the final. Cilic and David Goffin are the top seeds in Chung’s quarter of the draw...
Cilic as we’ve already mentioned has a less-than-great record in Miami. Goffin made the semi final in 2016 but arrives this time on the back on an eye injury that caused him to retire from his last tournament in Rotterdam. In his own words, Miami this week is a “test” for Goffin to see how his eye holds up, with the rest of the season the priority.
Chung is an exciting young player on the up and – much like 20-year-old Women’s Indian Wells finalist Daria Kasatkina at 80/1 last week – we should back him at big prices while we still can.
ATP Miami – Miami Open
Outright Winner:
BET: Hyeon Chung @ 40/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 40/1 (41.00) NetBet, 10Bet, 33/1 (34.00) Skybet, Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
STAKE: 1 pt – Each Way
I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at the Miami match schedule, including any bet opportunities for us.
Enjoy the tennis...
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson