Tennis Betting Advice - March 2018
Hedge your bets on 80/1 Kasatkina...
Friday 16th March 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
80/1 Kasatkina in the semi finals…
Daria Kasatkina produced a devastating display of attacking and creative tennis yesterday.
The 20-year-old Russian brilliantly dispatched multiple Grand Slam winner and former World No.1 Angelique Kerber, 6-0, 6-2.
It was quite something to watch – and it took less than an hour.
Our 80/1 and 66/1 Each Way pick for Indian Wells has now beaten three Grand Slam champions in a row – Sloane Stephens, Caroline Wozniacki and Kerber.
I’ve mentioned a few times how much I like Kasatkina’s attitude, on and off the court. She was disarmingly modest in her post-match interview yesterday:
“I don't want people to think that I'm somebody really special. Because I'm just a normal human who loves football, who loves good food, you know. So I'm just somebody who is also playing tennis.”
Well, you don’t hear many footballers talking like that.
Venus Williams stands in the way…
The Russian marches on – and faces Venus Williams in the semi final tonight (2am – and it’s live on BT Sport if you fancy staying up to watch. I will be).
I was waiting for a semi final opportunity before recommending any precautionary bet advice for Kasatkina.
Now that the big day has arrived, it’s time to put on the sensible hat…
Part of me is happy to let the Kasatkina bet stand. It’s small-stakes Each Way bet at a massive price, and she really is playing great – the best I’ve ever seen her.
However, they don’t come more experienced at this level than Venus, and the 37-year-old American has been playing very, very well here, too.
Having come this far, it would be a shame for us to end up completely empty-handed.
After careful consideration, I’m taking the ‘tournament view,’ and am prepared to effectively surrender some of the Each Way part of our bet (see below).
Hedge your bets tonight…
On its own, I would be happy to let the Kasatkina bet ride as it is, seeing as the stakes are small at 0.25 pt Each Way.
However, for the Indian Wells tournament as a whole we’ve so far staked 8 pts in total across the Outright and Match markets – returning 2.5 pts up until now (from Naomi Osaka beating Karolina Pliskova)…
Our 6/1 bet for the Men’s 2nd Quarter, Kevin Anderson was close to returning 7 pts for us last night and putting us in profit for the whole tournament. But he couldn’t quite do it, eventually losing 2-6, 6-4, 7-6 despite winning the first set and being 4-2 ahead in the final set v the talented youngster Borna Coric.
That result leaves me wanting to make sure we get some points back from Indian Wells, with our Kasatkina position the bet we have to work with.
And it’s a very good position to be in…
We backed Kasatkina at a standout 80/1 or 66/1 Each Way. Depending on the price you took, if she wins tonight and reaches the final, your bet looks like this:
80/1 Each Way…
Kasatkina loses in final (Each Way place payout) = 10.25 pts return (9.75 pts profit)
Kasatkina wins final (full Each Way & Win payout) = 30.5 pts return (30 pts profit)
66/1 Each Way…
Kasatkina loses in final (Each Way place payout) = 8.5 pts return (8 pts profit)
Kasatkina wins final (full Each Way & Win payout) = 25.25 pts return (24.75 pts profit)
That makes very good reading. But with our overall Indian Wells situation in mind, I’m recommending a 3-pt Match Winner bet on Venus Williams to beat Daria Kasatkina today at odds of 11/10 (2.10).
Doing so would recoup a large amount of our overall Indian Wells expenditure if Venus knocks Kasatkina out, and leave us at break even or better for the tournament if Kasatkina beats Venus and reaches the final…
And of course, if she does make it to the final, the ‘Win’ part of our Kasatkina bet holds a massive potential payout if she goes on to take the trophy.
I might have gone around the houses a bit there. But I like to explain my thinking.
In a nutshell, here’s today’s advice…
If you’re on Kasatkina at 80/1 or 66/1 Each Way, hedge your bet by backing Venus to beat her in tonight’s WTA Indian Wells semi final:
BET: Venus Williams to beat Daria Kasatkina @ 11/10
BOOKIES: 11/10 (2.10) Bet365, William Hill, SunBets, Betway, BetVictor, NetBet, 10Bet
STAKE: 3 pts
Latest odds here
The match is scheduled for 2am.
Enjoy the tennis…