Tennis Betting Advice - March 2018

Lopez looks good again tonight...

Thursday 1st March 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Last night in Acapulco…
  • Lopez looks good again tonight…
  • Back the Brazilian in Sao Paulo…

Last night in Acapulco…

It’s as-you-were after our match picks yesterday, with one winner and one loser…

Feliciano Lopez won 2-0 at Evens, but a very lacklustre Matthew Ebden lost 2-0.

In the women’s Acapulco event, our 18/1, 16/1 or 14/1 tournament pick Kristina Mladenovic came from a set down to win her match and book her place in the quarter finals. She plays again tonight and it’s a big one, as Kristina faces the woman who beat her in the final here last year, Lesia Tsurenko…

Mladenovic is the higher ranked player though, and we have value on our side with our pick starting the week at almost twice the price of the reigning champ Tsurenko. Going into tonight’s quarter final, Mladenovic is now 6/1 for the trophy.

It’s another busy week on the tour with four tournaments taking place across the globe, and two more opportunities stand out for me today…

Lopez looks good again tonight…

Feliciano Lopez v Jared Donaldson

ATP Acapulco – Abierto Mexicano Telcel

Match scheduled: 10pm+

Rankings: Lopez #38, Donaldson #59
Head-to-Head: n/a

We successfully backed Lopez at Evens (2.00) last night – and we can back him at the same or better to win again today…

Put simply, this is a match where I think the bookies have made the wrong player the favourite.

Age is about the only thing I can put Donaldson ahead on – but at 21 with no ATP titles or finals to his name as of yet, he can only be listed as having potential right now.

Lopez on the other hand is vastly experienced – being 36 years old hasn’t stopped Roger Federer – and Lopez is still more than a match for many a player on the tour, especially against a lower-ranked opponent as he is this evening.

Last night Lopez didn’t lose his serve once, and as we mentioned his left-hand weapon causes many players problems. Donaldson is won 5 lost 9 v left-handers. The Spanish ‘veteran’ looks good value to me here.

ATP Acapulco – Abierto Mexicano Telcel

Match Winner

BET: Felicano Lopez to beat Jared Donaldson @ 11/10
BOOKIES: 11/10 (2.10) Bet365, William Hill, 21/20 (2.05) BetVictor, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet, Evens (2.00) SunBets, Betway
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

Back the Brazilian in Sao Paulo…

Nicolas Kicker v Rogerio Dutra Silva

ATP Sao Paulo – Brasil Open

Match scheduled: Midnight+

Rankings: Kicker #96, Dutra Silva #106
Head-to-Head: Dutra Silva 2-0 (2016)

The bookies made this one 50-50 and you can see why – a clay court battle between two South Americans, in South America with both men hovering around the edge of the Top 100 in the rankings…

However of the two, the Brazilian Dutra Silva is my pick to please the home fans this evening. At 34, he’s got a few years on his 25-year-old Argentinean opponent, but as we mentioned above experience can often trump youth.

Kicker failed to qualify here three years running, and there’s not much in his recent form that would edge him ahead of Dutra Silva for me.

The Brazilian had a good 6-0, 6-4 win over surprise Australian Open quarter finalist Tennys Sandgren in his opening match, holding his serve throughout and winning a noteworthy 88% of 2nd Serve Points. That suggests he can post plenty of service game wins on the scoreboard and also rally in longer points when needed.

Dutra Silva is also played 2 won 2 on clay against tonight’s opponent.

ATP Sao Paulo – Brasil Open

Match Winner

BET: Rogerio Dutra Silva to beat Nicolas Kicker @ 19/20
BOOKIES: 19/20 (1.95) BetVictor, 10/11 (1.91) William Hill, Boylesports, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet, SunBets
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

I’ll be back on Friday with an update.

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch