Tennis Betting Advice - March 2018
Miami Open - 18/1 Anderson can take his chance...
Monday 26th March 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Big names out in Miami...
We’re yet to reach the quarter final stage in Miami, and already several of the favourites and big names have been sent packing...
In the Men’s:
World No.1 Roger Federer – out. Six-time Miami winner Novak Djokovic – out. World No.4 Grigor Dimitrov – out.
In the Women’s:
World No.1 Simona Halep – out. World No.2 Caroline Wozniacki – out. Eight-time Miami winner Serena Williams – out.
40/1 Chung now 9/1...
On top of that, plenty other seeds have been dropping like flies in the Miami heat. Notably for us in the bottom half of the Men’s draw, David Goffin (7th seed) and Roberto Bautista-Agut (13th seed) are both out – along with Dimitrov (3rd) and Djokovic (9th)...
Those four going out have contributed to the prices on our Men’s pick being significantly cut:
Our 40/1 or 33/1 Each Way pick Hyeon Chung has won his opening two matches in straight sets, 6-3, 7-5 and 6-1, 6-1. And with the draw opening up a little, the 21-year-old South Korean is now a 9/1 shot at best.
Once again, we head into the second week of a big tournament with a very good value price on our side.
Last time out in Indian Wells it was our 80/1 or 66/1 Women’s pick (Daria Kasatkina) that did the business for us – reaching the final for a big Each Way payout. This time in Miami our Outright Winner interest now rests with the Men’s event.
In the Women’s Miami draw we went for two huge prices – 100/1 Carla Suarez Navarro and 80/1 Elise Mertens – but both players came a cropper early on. Suarez Navarro lost in her opening match and wasn’t herself, taking a medical timeout. Mertens won her first match 2-0 but then ran into a seemingly back-in-form Johanna Konta, losing 2-0.
Our Miami match picks have all come in the Women’s tournament so far and we’re doing well, with two winners and one bet void (stakes returned – opponent retired injured) from our three Match Winner picks. The most recent of which was on Friday, when 6/4 (2.50) underdog Danielle Rose Collins beat Coco Vandeweghe, 6-3, 1-6, 6-1.
I have two more Miami selections for us today – a Men’s Outright Winner pick, and a Women’s match bet...
18/1 Anderson can take his chance...
The three new favourites in the Men’s Outright Winner betting are all in the bottom half of the draw – Juan-Martin del Potro (around 2/1), Marin Cilic (7/1) and our man Chung (now 9/1).
With Federer out, the top half of the draw is there for the taking...
In Indian Wells we backed Kevin Anderson to win the 2nd Quarter at 6/1. He came very close to landing that bet for us, reaching the quarter final but losing out in final set tiebreak in that decisive match.
He looks worth following again here in Miami this week, with the draw opening up and the potential to go the whole way to the final...
The big-serving 6’8” South African won his opening match in straight sets, hitting 16 Aces and winning a high 88% of 1st Serve Points.
Next up for Kevin is the youngster Karen Khachanov, who at 6’5” is a fellow big hitter. Kevin is a 1/2 (1.50) favourite to get past the Russian tonight (8.30pm+).
After that would come a meeting with the improving American youngster Frances Tiafoe, or Tomas Berdych.
Anderson has beaten Tiafoe already this year, in their first ever meeting. Berdych has an eye-watering career 12-0 head-to-head v Anderson – but they haven’t met since back in 2014; since then Anderson has had the best results of his life and reached his highest ranking, whereas Berdych’s career has gone the other way.
As I said ahead of Indian Wells earlier this month, Anderson is one of the form players on the tour in 2018 and all his best results have come on hard courts. Already this season he has reached three finals (winning one) and climbed to a career-high ranking of No.8 in the world.
And all this comes on the back of reaching the US Open final last year – a real breakthrough moment, coming aged 31. Watching Anderson on court you can see he is full of self-belief and determination. He wants to win. There could be more success to come.
Anderson stands out in the top half of the draw for me today, especially with prices as big as 18/1 Each Way available.
ATP Miami – Miami Open
BET: Kevin Anderson @ 18/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 18/1 (19.00) Coral, Ladbrokes, 12/1 (13.00) William Hill, 11/1 (12.00) Bet365, SunBets, NetBet, 10Bet, Betway
STAKE: 1 pt – Each Way
Aggie the value tonight...
Agnieszka Radwanska v Victoria Azarenka
WTA Miami – Miami Open
Match scheduled: 8pm+
Rankings: Radwanska #32, Azarenka #186
Head-to-Head: Azarenka 12-4 (last meeting Radwanska 2014)
We backed Azarenka against Madison Keys last week (Keys retired when Azarenka ahead 7-6, 2-0) – but this time I want to take on the Belarusian.
Whereas Keys was an out-of-form and vulnerable-looking opponent and the match prices were set at 50-50, this match sees Azarenka just 4/9 (1.44) for the win – her shortest price since returning to the tour this year, having previously been out since Wimbledon.
Radwanska saw off World No.1 Halep in the last round and while Halep has not been at her best this month, that’s still a big win for Aggie and a significant one, too – her first win over a Top 5 player for two years.
Radwanska doesn’t have the power of Azarenka but has the ability to chase down shots, carve out angles and out-think opponents in long rallies. At her best, she can absorb power and frustrate opponents like mad.
Azarenka feels a little overrated today considering she is still very much on the comeback, and the prices for Radwanska look a bit big to me.
BET: Agnieszka Radwanska to beat Victoria Azarenka @ 7/4
BOOKIES: 7/4 (2.75) Bet365, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet, 17/10 (2.70) BetVictor, 13/8 (2.63) Boylesports, 8/5 (2.60) William Hill
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here
I’ll be back on Wednesday with more from Miami.
Enjoy the tennis...