Tennis Betting Advice - March 2018
Miami Open - our two men in the quarter finals...
Wednesday 28th March 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Miami update...
Our Match Winner pick Agnieszka Radwanska was well beaten by a resurgent Victoria Azarenka on Monday night.
I thought Aggie looked a bit underrated at the available odds of 7/4 (2.75), but as it turned out it wasn’t much of a contest. Azarenka’s power won out, with the Belarusian destroying Radwanska’s service games time after time. The Pole won just 3 out of 22 points on her 2nd Serve (14%), which is an alarming statistic.
That one didn’t work out for us, but returns from our three other Miami match bets last week (all in the women’s event) leave us in profit from those markets for the tournament so far.
In terms of the Outright Winner markets, it’s all about the men for us this week...
Our two men in the quarter finals...
We have two players through to the ATP Miami Masters quarter finals – one in the top half of the draw and one in the bottom...
18/1 Anderson now 5/1...
In the top section, on Monday we backed Kevin Anderson at a standout 18/1 Each Way (or 12/1 and 11/1 in general)– picking the South African to be the man to come through that side of draw at a decent price, with the favourite Roger Federer already knocked out.
Our man is now down to 5/1 with the few bookies that are still offering the original Each Way terms of 1/2 odds for 1-2 places. Having taken odds of more than double his current Outright Winner price, we made a good move by getting on Anderson when we did.
Anderson beat the upcoming American youngster Frances Tiafoe 7-6, 6-4 last night. Once again, 6’8” Kevin was serving well – despite some windy conditions – and continued to fight hard and look ‘up for it’ and focused throughout.
Ando is through to his fifth quarter final of the year, and faces Pablo Carreno Busta tomorrow for a place in the semi finals...
Kevin beat the Spaniard 2-1 at Indian Wells earlier this month, and our man has a 4-0 career head-to-head v Carreno Busta. The bookies make Anderson a 2/5 (1.40) favourite to beat him again on Thursday. It was a close match last time out with Anderson edging it in a final-set tiebreak. If you want to protect your stakes then the Spaniard is 2/1 (3.00) for the match. Personally I’m happy with the position on Anderson right now, so there’s no official ‘saver bet’ advice from me today.
In the bottom half of the men’s Miami draw...
40/1 Chung now 5/1...
At the start of the tournament we backed the fast-rising 21-year-old Hyeon Chung at 40/1 or 33/1 Each Way. Chung was on our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2018 list and he’s made a very good start to the year – through to his sixth quarter final of the season already.
Only Juan-Martin Del Potro has won more matches then Chung this year – and Del Potro is currently the Miami tournament favourite at just 7/4 (2.75). Those two have never met, but it’s a potential semi final match this week.
Del Potro or Milos Raonic will face the winner of Chung v John Isner. It’s big servers all the way there...
The 6’10” Isner has a 2-1 record v Chung, but the 32-year-old American is well aware of how much the youngster is improving. Chung won their most recent meeting, earlier this year, and afterwards Isner said: “That's a completely different player than the one I played the previous two times.”
Isner is averaging 11+ Aces per match so far in Miami, but he’s not unbreakable – losing three service games on the way. The 6’2” Chung is proving he can more than hold his own on serve; in fact he’s yet to be broken at all in the tournament, and is winning an average of 82% of 1st Serve Points.
From 40/1 and 33/1 when we backed him Each Way, Chung is now just 5/1. Again, we have a big price on our side. And like Anderson, our man is the favourite to win his quarter final. Chung is 4/7 (1.57) to beat Isner tonight (8pm+), with the American at 6/4 (2.50). The youngster has momentum and confidence and I’m sticking with him here.
I’ll be back over the Bank Holiday weekend with an update and possibly further advice for Miami – before we turn our attention to next week’s WTA tournaments in Monterrey and Charleston.
Enjoy the tennis...
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson