Tennis Betting Advice - March 2018
Osaka wins - and a big night ahead in the desert...
Thursday 15th March 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Osaka wins…
My approach is always going to be to go after the value prices. It was good to get one in yesterday with Naomi Osaka beating World No.5 Karolina Pliskova for a 6/4 (2.50) winner.
The 20-year-old was a convincing 6-2, 6-3 winner. That’s her 5th match win in a row and takes her into the WTA Indian Wells semi finals for the first time, where she’ll meet World No.1 Simona Halep.
As I said the other day, Osaka is improving at a rate of knots. She was on our Ones to Watch in 2017 list but struggled with injury that year – now she looks ready to really get her top-flight career going.
Osaka was as big as 125/1 on day one of the tournament. She’s now 4/1. We didn’t back her in the Outright Winner market this time, but this rising Japanese star gave us a welcome Match Winner payout last night.
A big night ahead in the desert…
One young player who we did back in the Outright Winner market is Daria Kasatkina.
The 20-year-old Russian also first featured on our 2017 list of upcoming players, and she’s having a promising 2018 so far with a semi final, final and now a quarter final run to her name…
Kasatkina has beaten two Grand Slam winners so far here at Indian Wells – Sloane Stephens and Caroline Wozniacki – without dropping a set. She faces another this evening in her quarter final match against Angelique Kerber (6pm, BT Sport).
Having backed Kasatkina at 80/1 or 66/1 Each Way, we’re in a good position in terms of overall price – the Russian is now just 10/1 for the trophy.
Kerber is the match favourite at around 4/7 (1.57) to beat Kasatkina. If you wanted to ensure that you can recoup your 0.5 pt stake on Kasatkina, backing Kerber would set you up for that today.
However for me, with just small stakes involved here (0.25 pt Each Way), I’m happy to stick with the Kasatkina position. She’s beaten Kerber before and remains a good underdog proposition in my eyes.
Also, a potential semi final ‘saver bet’ would be more appealing than at this stage, as we’d know exactly what our profit/ loss permutations would be – with one eye on an Each Way payout for winning in the semis.
We’re also in a good position at a nice price in the Men’s Indian Wells event…
Our 6/1 pick for the 2nd Quarter, Kevin Anderson is through to the match that decides that bet – the quarter final…
Anderson came through a very close match last night to set this up, and I liked his mentality and how he held his nerve in the final set tiebreak.
The big-serving South African plays Borna Coric this evening (8pm), who is another young player from our Ones to Watch in 2017 list…
At 21 years of age, Coric has 10 years on Anderson, but our man has experience on his side and also a 3-0 career head-to-head record v the Croatian.
I’m expecting another really tough test for Anderson this evening, but I’m sticking with him to come through. Again, if you wanted to cover your 1 pt stake on Anderson, don’t let me stop you – Coric can be backed at 13/8 (2.63) for the match.
Two players on our side…
A big night ahead in the California desert then, and we have two good value Indian Wells positions on our side:
I’ll be back on Friday with a look at the weekend match schedules and any potential opportunities for us.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson