Tennis Betting Advice - March 2018
Indian Wells profits – next stop Miami...
Monday 19th March 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Indian Wells profits – next stop Miami...
It was a good job that we put the ‘sensible hat’ on yesterday, and had a saver bet on Naomi Osaka...
The 20-year-old Japanese rising star hammered our Outright Winner pick Daria Kasatkina in the Women’s Indian Wells final, 6-3, 6-2.
After battling past Venus Williams in an epic three-hour semi final, yesterday’s trophy match proved to be just one match too many for the young Russian.
Talking of being sensible, I had to remind myself not to be too disappointed with that runner-up result...
Getting an 80/1 or 66/1 pick into a final – as we did with Kasatkina – is great work. We’re doing well and hunting in the right areas. An Each Way payout at 40/1 or 33/1 is something to be very happy about.
And for the Indian Wells tournament overall, across all our Outright and Match bets, we made a profit – with a 45% ROI to the best prices.
Big prices are where it’s at...
The big prices are where it’s at. They are what we go for and stick by with our Ones to Watch approach.
We got a nice profit from our big-odds Each Way pick Daria Kasatkina. And were only a tiebreak away from a 6/1 winner on Kevin Anderson to win the Men’s 2nd Quarter, too.
I’d much rather be in those positions time and time again, than sweating on a favourite at a short price...
A case in point being Men’s Indian Wells favourite Roger Federer, who was just 6/5 (2.20) at the start of the tournament. Yes, Roger got to the final – he even had a championship point to win it – but ultimately lost. And at those odds, there are no Each Way profits to fall back on.
The Men’s title was won by 10/1 Juan-Martin Del Potro. The Men’s Indian Wells semi finals also featured 50/1 Milos Raonic and 500/1 Borna Coric.
And with the Women’s final contested by 125/1 Osaka against 80/1 Kasatkina, you can see why I like to target the big prices and take on the favourites.
As I said, we’re hunting in the right areas. As well as Kasatkina, both Osaka and Coric featured on our Ones to Watch in 2017 list.
Brides and bridesmaids...
Last season we got six of our weekly Ones to Watch Outright Winner picks into ATP or WTA finals – and all six won.
So far this season we’ve got 22/1 Katerina Siniakova (WTA Shenzhen), 30/1 Marin Cilic (Men’s Australian Open) and now 80/1 Daria Kasatkina into finals. All three have finished runner-up for an Each Way payout. But it’s a bit too early in the year to be crying ‘always the bridesmaid’...
Next stop Miami...
When we next get a player that goes one match better and wins a final, we’ll be well into profit.
That’s how it works.
We’ll keep doing what we’re doing.
And we’ll be doing it again this week – starting tomorrow – with the Miami Open.
P.S
How did you get on at Indian Wells?
I stayed up all night Friday night watching Kasatkina beat Venus Williams in the semi final. I did the washing up at 1am to kill some time before the 2am start. I ate a whole pack of Jammy Dodgers during the first set. When she finally won at 5am, it was snowing outside my window...
It can get lonely late at night. Tell me I’m not alone. Were you on Kasatkina for an Each Way payout? Let me know.
I’ll be back tomorrow with our first picks for Miami...
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson