Tennis Betting Advice - March 2019

ATP Miami Open – the new breed at 33/1...

Wednesday 20th March 2019

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • ATP Miami Open...
  • Ones to Watch @ 33/1...
  • Tsitsipas and Kyrgios...

The young men of Miami...

Day One of the Miami Open at the new Hard Rock Stadium venue was a non-event, with the entire day’s 1st Round matches rained off. They’re trying again from 3.30pm today, and the weather forecast is a lot better from tomorrow on.

Yesterday we got our first two women’s picks in the book, with a couple of strong-willed 100/1+ shots, Sofia Kenin and Danielle Collins.

Today we’re getting into the men’s market. Rafael Nadal has pulled out with a knee injury, but the other big boys are here – Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer.

Djokovic has done the Indian Wells/ Miami double four times in the past, which is more than any other player. The World No.1 is the 6/4 (2.50) favourite here. He fell in the 3rd Round at Indian Wells.

Dominic Thiem was an 80/1 winner in the Californian desert last week. The Austrian is 20/1 at best for the ‘Sunshine Double.’ Like women’s Indian Wells winner Bianca Andreescu, taking a shorter price for the tough back-to-back title challenge doesn’t look like a value move.

I said before Indian Wells that this month’s two ATP Masters events could see some more ‘changing of the guard’ moments in the men’s game. We’re sticking with that theme for ATP Miami by focusing on the top-ranked players in their early twenties...

Ones to Watch at 33/1...

Let’s take a look at the youngest players in the world’s Top 20, and their Masters experience to date:

Alexander Zverev (No.3, age 21) has made five ATP Masters finals already, winning three. He was a 25/1 runner-up in Miami last year. However, the young German is still inconsistent, and after a lacklustre 3rd Round defeat at Indian Wells, odds of 14/1 at best don’t set the pulse racing.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (No.10, age 20) has made one Masters final so far; an 80/1 runner-up at ATP Toronto last summer. He’s 33/1 for Miami. In the bottom half of the draw, the Greek star would avoid 7/2 (4.50) tournament second-favourite Federer until the semi finals, and can’t meet Djokovic unless it’s in the final.

Karen Khachanov (No.12, age 22) won the Paris Masters (indoors) at the end of last season, as a 40/1 shot. He’s 50/1 here. The Russian showed signs of improvement at Indian Wells, but has not been firing on all cylinders so far in 2019.

Borna Coric (No.13, age 22) was a 100/1 runner-up at Shanghai in October, his debut appearance in a Masters final. The Croatian is 50/1. Like Khachanov, Coric is yet to get back to his 2018 form.

Daniil Medvedev (No.15, age 23) is still waiting for his first Masters final. His best result was a 4th Round in Toronto 2018. He’s 80/1 for Miami. We backed the Russian at 66/1 in Indian Wells, but he was far from his best, managing to win just one match.

The next youngest player in the rankings to have made a Masters final is the ever enigmatic Nick Kyrgios (No.33, age 23). The talented but temperamental Aussie was a 20/1 runner-up at the Cincinnati Masters in August 2017. He’s also a two-time semi-finalist at the Miami Open, in 2016 & 2017 at the previous venue at Key Biscayne.

Kyrgios is 33/1. In the top half of the draw, he can’t meet Djokovic until the semis. Along the way, World No.6 Kei Nishikori is the biggest obstacle. But at almost twice the odds of the 18/1 Japanese player, and with a ‘more mature’ Acapulco tournament win giving what can be a significant recent boost, Kyrgios & his massive serve at the bigger price is the one to take as an outsider pick here.

I’m also keen to stick with Tsitsipas. He flopped in his first match at Indian Wells last time out. But I believe the Australian Open semi-finalist is the real deal and so far this season he’s always bounced back well after an early-rounds defeat. While we can still get odds of 33/1 for this exciting young player, we should take them.

As the notes above show, a handful of those top-ranked youngsters have already made the breakthrough to a Masters final. In terms of the next step up to Grand Slam level, Tsitsipas and Kyrgios have the best records, with the Greek player making that Aussie Open semi, and Kyrgios a two-time Grand Slam quarter-finalist.

In terms of overall form in 2019, here are those six young players’ best results to date:

Zverev – one final (runner-up)
Tsitsipas – two finals (won one)
Khachanov – one quarter final
Coric – one semi final
Medvedev – two finals (won one)
Kyrgios – one final (won)

At odds of 33/1 each, and placed in either side of the Miami draw, Tsitsipas and Kyrgios are today’s picks.

Today’s Ones to Watch picks are:

ATP Miami – Miami Open

BET: Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 33/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 33/1 (34.00) Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Coral, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet

BET: Nick Kyrgios @ 33/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 33/1 (34.00) Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Coral, NetBet, 10Bet

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Play starts from 3.30pm. I’ll be back later in the week with more from Miami.

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch