Tennis Betting Advice - March 2020
WTA Monterrey – go with youth at 22/1…
Monday 2nd March 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Last night we looked at the indoor form for WTA Lyon.
Today we’re focusing on this week’s other International-grade tournament, the outdoor hard court event at WTA Monterrey in Mexico…
Old v new in Mexico…
As I mentioned yesterday, the Monterrey 2020 draw is an interesting one, with a few storylines and big names.
The veterans are out in force here. Victoria Azarenka (age 30), Venus Williams (39) and the newly out-of-retirement Kim Clijsters (36) line up together in the same draw for the first time since the US Open 2012.
Those three are all former World No.1’s, but currently all sit outside the Top 50. They’re all in the bottom half of the draw this week.
Azarenka made the final here last year, as a 5/1 shot. This week, making her first appearance on tour since August, the Belarussian is 12/1 at best and 10/1 in general.
Venus (top price 18/1) is still dangerous on one-off occasions, but over the course of a tournament the 39-year-old looks to be a struggling these days. Williams has lost two out of two matches so far this season, and four in a row overall.
Fitness may be an issue for the 36-year-old Clijsters, too. The Belgian legend is just one match into her comeback. Kim is 16/1.
The bottom half of the Monterrey draw also includes two British representatives…
Johanna Konta looks like one of those ‘vulnerable favourites’ I was on about last week.
Coming back from a knee injury, Konta is looking for her first match win since the US Open at the end of last summer. She’s played three, lost three so far in 2020. That hardly makes a strong case for Jo as an 8/1 and 7/1 second-favourite in the Outright Winner betting this week.
Heather Watson won WTA Acapulco at 16/1 last week. She’s around the same prices, and a top price 20/1, to pull off the Mexican double this week. Watson won Monterrey in 2016, and indeed all four of her career WTA Singles title have been won outside of Europe.
However, backing up one tournament win with another the very next week is a tough ask, and Watson has a habit of playing out long, three-set matches. That could take its toll.
Backing Heather here feels like something of a bandwagon bet to me, with the Brit already trending on Oddschecker in the last 24 hours. As such, I’m inclined to look elsewhere for a potentially underrated player at a nice price…
Going with youth is a major theme with our Ones to Watch picks. Anastasia Potapova is a teenager who looks to be getting closer to a first WTA tournament win.
The Russian appeared on our Ones to Watch in 2019 list at the start of last season. She went on to reach two semi finals last year, both at WTA International-grade events.
Now 18 years of age, Potapova has started 2020 in quietly promising form, with back-to-back quarter finals at St Petersburg and Acapulco suggesting a breakthrough of sorts may be on the way.
Inconsistency is an issue to be expected with any young player. But Potapova looks to be improving in that department. She still gets a bit too emotional on court for my liking, but her game looks in better working order than a few months ago.
We’ve already seen three teenagers reach WTA finals so far this year. Available at 22/1 and 20/1 Each Way, Anastasia could add to that list this week or very soon.
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner pick – Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Read more about my recommended bookies for Outright Winner bets here.
Play starts in Monterrey from 4pm, UK time. Bookies suspend their Outright Winner markets during play.
I’ll be back later in the week with an update from Lyon & Monterrey, and some notes on Indian Wells & Miami which are the two main events coming up this month.
Enjoy the tennis…