Tennis Betting Advice - March 2021

Miami match picks - Tiebreaks the order of the day...

Tuesday 30th March 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • ATP Miami Open…
  • John Isner v Roberto Bautista-Agut…
  • Taylor Fritz v Alexander Bublik…

We’re on the lookout for a big-price finalist at the Miami Open.

At the odds we go for, we’re going to have more dry weeks than winning ones. But while the Ones to Watch outsiders are still in the draw, we get plenty of excitement at each tournament…

In the women’s Outright Winner market, we got a good price by taking Bianca Andreescu yesterday. She beat Garbine Muguruza as the 2/1 match underdog. And tournament odds of 20/1+ have now been trimmed right down to 6/1.

  • Andreescu plays in the quarter finals tomorrow, priced as an odds-on favourite to beat Sara Sorribes Tormo

We have two good prices in the men’s Miami field, including one absolute whopper…

Sebastian Korda was an impressive 2-0 winner again last night, beating one of the tour’s form men, Aslan Karatsev. The 20-year-old American is now 50/1, from odds of 250/1 and 200/1 in our tournament preview.

As we stated last week, it’s all upside for Korda right now. Already this season, he’s reached a first ATP final. He’s up to a career-high no.87 in the world – and that ranking is only going to get better as time goes on.

This evening, Seb is looking for a first victory over a top 10 player, and to reach a first ATP Masters 1000 quarter final. He takes on world no.9, Diego Schwartzman.

Our other men’s pick left standing is Jannik Sinner. The 19-year-old One to Watch takes on another of our OTW in 2021 names today, 21-year-old Emil Ruusuvuori. From 33/1 at the start of the tournament, Sinner is now trading at 11/1 and shorter.

Miami match picks – Tiebreaks the order of the day…

The men take centre stage today, with just two women’s matches on the Tuesday schedule. From the eight men’s Last 16 encounters, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some long matches and tiebreakers…

John Isner v Roberto Bautista-Agut
Emil Ruusuvuori v Jannik Sinner
Taylor Fritz v Alexander Bublik
Hubert Hurkacz v Milos Raonic
Daniil Medvedev v Frances Tiafoe
Diego Schwartzman v Sebastian Korda
Lorenzo Sonego v Stefanos Tsitsipas
Marin Cilic v Andrey Rublev

Plenty of big servers and huge ball strikers in there. In particular, Isner, Fritz, Bublik, Hurkacz, Raonic, and Cilic are all known for their massive serves, rained down from great heights.

Indeed, in the Tiebreak in the Match market, Skybet are odds-on in each case for Isner v Bautista-Agut, Fritz v Bublik, and Hurkacz v Raonic.

I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see a few 7-6 sets today.

The two matches that appeal to me are:

John Isner v Roberto Bautista-Agut

Match scheduled 4pm+

Isner won the Miami Open in 2018, then reached the final here at the new Hard Rock Stadium venue in 2019.

Big John has always played his best tennis at home in the States. And it appears that way again this year, with the 35-year-old pulling some form out the bag to beat the highly-rated youngster Felix Auger-Aliassime in the last round, 7-6, 7-6.

That double-tiebreak score is no anomaly. Throughout his career, Isner has consistently been around the top of the charts for most aces, and 7-6 score-lines.

  • Here in Miami, 24 of the last 46 sets that Isner has played in this tournament have gone to a Tiebreak. On his run to the final in 2019, a remarkable nine out of 10 sets up to the semi final stage were settled 7-6 in favour of the American

That 2019 Miami run included a 7-6, 7-6 tiebreak triumph over this afternoon’s opponent, Roberto Bautista-Agut. The Spaniard is a great athlete and competitor, and John will know how important it is to take care of his own service games today.

Isner is 13/8 (2.63) for the match win. A Tiebreak in the Match is odds-on at 1/2 (1.5). A 1st Set Tiebreak is 6/4 (2.5) with Skybet.

Always on the hunt for the best price, the option I’m going for is Isner 7-6 at 9/2 (5.5) in the 1st Set Score market.

Taylor Fritz v Alexander Bublik

Match scheduled 6pm+

In our tournament preview I mentioned Fritz as a potential dark horse at 250/1. Bublik was 150/1 on day one. Those prices are now 33/1 and 66/1 respectively, and with a place in a Masters quarter final at stake, this is a big match for both men.

The bookies have the American as the favourite today, but it’s Bublik that leads the head-to-head, 2-0…

Serve will be important, with both guys capable of producing some serious power and rhythm on their delivery, when they get in the groove.

The key stat for me though is this one, with Bublik’s recent habit of being a fast starter:

  • Bublik has won the 1st Set in 7 of his last 8 matches

The underdog win at 11/8 (2.38) doesn’t look a bad bet today, but Alexander can dip in and out of matches, and this could develop into a long match. For me the fast-start for Bublik is the sharper selection at 6/5 (2.2).

Ones to Watch

ATP Miami Open

John Isner v Roberto Bautista-Agut

  • 1st Set Score: Isner 7-6 is 9/2 (5.5) with Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor 

Taylor Fritz v Alexander Bublik

  • 1st Set Winner: Bublik is 6/5 (2.2) with Bet365, Skybet, 23/20 (2.15) and 11/10 (2.1) in general

Miami matches are being shown live on Amazon Prime Video, and on selected bookies’ websites, including Bet365. Play starts from 4pm.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch