Tennis Betting Advice - March 2021
Miami Open – two picks for Manic Monday…
Monday 29th March 2021
In your Ones to Watch email today:
It’s ‘Manic Monday’ at the Miami Open, with all of the women’s Last 16 matches taking place in one day…
There are some crackers on the schedule, with several bigtime line-ups compelling enough to be a final on their own merit.
As it is, only half of these players can make it through to the quarter finals…
Top half of the women’s draw:
Ashleigh Barty v Victoria Azarenka
Marketa Vondrousova v Aryna Sabalenka
Anastasija Sevastova v Ana Konjuh
Petra Kvitova v Elina Svitolina
Bianca Andreescu v Garbine Muguruza
Sara Sorribes Tormo v Ons Jabeur
Jessica Pegula v Maria Sakkari
Elise Mertens v Naomi Osaka
And here’s how the revised Outright Winner betting looks this morning, at Paddy Power:
Osaka 21/10 (3.1)
Kvitova 11/2 (6.5)
Barty 11/2 (6.5)
Muguruza 13/2 (7.5)
Sabalenka 7/1 (8.0)
Sorribes Tormo 50/1
We’re on Jessica Pegula at 25/1, and she has a fair chance to get through to the quarter finals. Pegula takes on Maria Sakkari tonight, in a match that the bookies make pretty much 50-50. Pegula is now trading at 14/1 – 18/1 for the title.
From the updated Outright Winner prices, there are two I like today – one from each side of the draw…
Ones to Watch at 25/1 and 66/1…
Back on Monday 11th March, 2019, we got on Bianca Andreescu halfway through Indian Wells, at odds of 30/1 and 28/1. The then-teenager went all the way, and lifted the trophy. She then went on to win the US Open that year, before injuries kept the Canadian off the court for a long time…
Returning to Grand Slam action at the Australian Open last month, I put up Bianca as a 20/1 pick. The thinking being, when & if she gets her match form & fitness back, 20/1 will be too big.
Melbourne proved a bit early for her, but the signs of progress were there. The 20-year-old went out in the 2nd round in the main event in Australia, then reached the semi finals at the smaller WTA Phillip Island Trophy.
Fast-forward to this month in Miami, and after a high-quality three-set victory over Amanda Anisimova last night, Andreescu looks like she’s clicking into her full competitive gears. And that makes her a very formidable opponent for anyone.
Fatigue would be the argument against backing Andreescu here, but the same could be said about tonight’s opponent Garbine Muguruza. The Spaniard also had a tough three-set battle on Sunday, and to me, she looked more tired at the end of that match than Andreescu did in hers.
Coming to the important issue of price, Muguruza is in with the single-figure favourites. Andreescu can still be backed at her pre-tournament starting price of 20/1. And bigger with a couple of firms, with 25/1 and 22/1 available this morning.
The winner of Andreescu-Muguruza will be priced as the favourite in the next round, drawn to face Sara Sorribes Tormo or Ons Jabeur. That makes the price incentive even more appealing today.
Andreescu at underdog prices on hard courts is a great bet if you ask me. She looks dialled-in and ready for the fight. I like 2/1+ for the match win tonight, and 20/1+ for the tournament.
Ice-woman can dazzle in the Miami heat…
In the top half of the draw, the big story has been Ana Konjuh. Returning from a near-devastating run of injuries, the Croatian is having a fantastic tournament here in Miami. Including a big win over one of our picks, Iga Swiatek, in the last round.
It’s tempting to jump on the Konjuh train, with 50/1 available in places today. Interestingly, some firms are much shorter, at 18/1 and 20/1. At the start of the tournament, Konjuh was a rank outsider, at 1,000/1. In that respect, the biggest chunks of value have already long gone.
Ana says she still has to deal with pain in her elbow, so I do wonder if her fitness and playing level can last for a fairy-tale run all the way to the final this week. The bookies have Konjuh as the favourite to beat Sevastova today, but that match could be very close. The Latvian had a Walkover in the last round, after Simona Halep pulled out injured.
One I do want to get behind at big prices in the top half of this women’s Miami draw today is Marketa Vondrousova. The left-handed Czech has an enigmatic quality about her, and I like it. She has a bit of the ice-woman about her, hard to read, and sometimes looking almost bizarrely calm on court. It was good to see her smiling in her 2-1 win over Belinda Bencic in the last round.
Vondrousova has a tough match against Aryna Sabalenka today, but has beaten her before, and I’m hoping that Marketa will use her smarts to move the Belarusian around the court today. If she does that, with her hooked lefty forehand and slick dropshots, then Sabalenka can be nudged out of her set-and-strike positions.
There’s always the danger that Sabalenka will storm it – such is her power and attacking game – but the value is all on the side of the underdog here…
Vondrousova is still only 21. She’s already provided us with one big payout, reaching the French Open final in 2019, at 40/1 Each Way. At Ones to Watch prices – 66/1 and 50/1 – I’m backing her again here. As we noted last week, players with clay-court nous have been doing well in these Miami conditions. Marketa fits the bill in that respect, too.
As with Andreescu today, I’m taking the 2/1+ match price, along with the best Outright quote.
In the men’s event, we’ve got four men left standing, including a couple of massive prices:
Denis Shapovalov 28/1 & 25/1
Jannik Sinner 33/1
Sebastian Korda 200/1
Lorenzo Musetti 500/1 – 125/1
Shapovalov, Korda, and Musetti all play today in the 3rd round. Sinner plays tomorrow.
Ones to Watch
WTA Miami Open
Outright Winner – Each Way:
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Miami matches are being shown live on Amazon Prime Video, and on selected bookies’ websites, including Bet365. Play starts from 4pm, with our featured women’s matches on at 6pm+ and 1.30am+.
Enjoy the tennis…