How close can you get…

Monday 7th March 2022

We came very close to landing a big one last night.

Maria Camila Osorio Serrano had not one, not two, not three… but five match points in the WTA Monterrey final.

Well played to Ones to Watch youngster Leylah Fernandez though. The Canadian looked the fresher at the death – physically and mentally. Pulling out the more ruthless shots when the scoreboard situation was at its most perilous.

The final lasted three hours. Fernandez eventually prevailed, 6-7, 6-4, 7-6.

I don’t know if you got a chance to watch the match. It’s still available on Amazon Prime Video today, if replays are your thing. The deciding set twisted and turned. At one stage, our 28/1+ pick Osorio Serrano led 4-1 in the third. But she ended up just a point away from glory.

On the fifth match point for our player, there was a 10-minute delay in playing the point. With a minor floodlight failure only adding to the drama. I think teenage US Open runner-up Fernandez showed her higher level of big-match experience there, bouncing around and staying warmed-up and zoned-in during the wait. While Osorio Serrano merely sat on her chair, no doubt contemplating the four championship points that had already come and gone.

Both of these young women – Leylah Fernandez is 19, Camila Osorio is 20 – showed positive traits that we’ve discussed in these pages before. They’re both fighters. And in the rollercoaster tennis matches that frequent the WTA Tour, that’s a seriously good quality to have.

A case in point from our player in the quarter finals last week. For the second time in two meetings with big-name top-seed Elina Svitolina, Maria Camila came back from a set down to win, 2-1. In the final set that day, the Colombian roared back from 4-1 and a double-break-of-serve down. Impressive, exciting stuff.

‘Happy with half the odds’…

For the second week running then, we have to settle for a half-the-odds Each Way payout from one of our Outright Winner selections. And at the big odds we go for, there’s plenty to enjoy there…

After 33/1 Cameron Norrie in Acapulco, 30/1 or 28/1 Osorio Serrano collected the runner-up prize in Monterrey. Making it a profitable fortnight for us in Mexico.

Ones to Watch member Tony M puts it well. He’s happy with the place return:

“Hi tom
Maria was very unlucky last night what with 5 match points 
good tip thanks Tom. Happy with half the odds,
good luck. tony m”

Thanks again to everyone that messaged me last week. If you’d like to get in touch, my email address is: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

Well played, Dayana…

Let’s also give a special mention today to Dayana Yastremska. We’ve been following this highly competitive youngster for some time now. Still just 21 years of age, we noted Yastremska’s return to form last month.

The young Ukrainian had an emotional week at WTA Lyon last week. Arriving with her younger sister (who she played with in the Doubles), having had to shelter underground in Ukraine, before taking the difficult decision to leave their parents in their homeland, in order to carry on playing on the tour.

Yastremska saved two match points in the 1st round in Lyon – and then went all the way to the final, where she finished runner-up to Shuai Zhang, in another three-set final. (Pre-tournament odds: Zhang 20/1, Yastremska 12/1.)

I get the feeling there’s more to come from Dayana Yastremska. This season, and beyond. Her top level of ball-striking is very high indeed.

Indian Wells this week…

March brings us two tournaments that have genuine credentials as the biggest events on the calendar outside of the four annual Grand Slams. This week and next, the men & women are both in action at Indian Wells. Followed by the Miami Open.

These events have mouth-watering recent history for big-odds results. Take a look at this selection of double & triple-figure prices, from the last five renewals…

2021:

ATP Indian Wells – Cameron Norrie champion – 66/1
ATP Indian Wells – Nikoloz Basilashvili runner-up – 100/1

WTA Indian Wells – Paula Badosa champion – 40/1
WTA Indian Wells – Victoria Azarenka runner-up – 33/1

ATP Miami – Hubert Hurkacz champion – 100/1
ATP Miami – Jannik Sinner runner-up – 33/1

WTA Miami – Bianca Andreescu runner-up – 25/1

2020:

Didn’t play – coronavirus

2019:

ATP Indian Wells – Dominic Thiem champion – 80/1

WTA Indian Wells – Bianca Andreescu champion – 100/1

ATP Miami – John Isner runner-up – 40/1

WTA Miami – Ashleigh Barty champion – 28/1

2018:

WTA Indian Wells – Naomi Osaka champion – 125/1
WTA Indian Wells – Daria Kasatkina runner-up – 80/1

ATP Miami – John Isner champion – 80/1
ATP Miami – Alexander Zverev runner-up – 25/1

WTA Miami – Sloane Stephens champion – 66/1
WTA Miami – Jelena Ostapenko runner-up – 50/1

2017:

WTA Indian Wells – Elena Vesnina champion – 100/1
WTA Indian Wells – Svetlana Kuznetsova runner-up – 50/1

2016:

ATP Indian Wells – Milos Raonic runner-up – 22/1

ATP Miami – Kei Nishikori runner-up – 25/1

WTA Miami – Svetlana Kuznetsova runner-up – 100/1

See you on Wednesday…

With that rich mix of shocks & surprises, newcomers, and bound-for-the-big-time youngsters – you can see why I’m excited for Indian Wells & Miami this month…

I’ll have the first Indian Wells advice for you on Wednesday, ready for the first night in the women’s event.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch