Tennis Betting Advice - March 2022
WTA Indian Wells - dark horses at 150/1...
Wednesday 9th March 2022
Earlier this week we looked at the rich history of shocks & surprises at the two prestigious March tournaments, Indian Wells and the Miami Open. That big-odds list includes the following recent results at the women’s Indian Wells event, which gets underway from 7pm today…
2021:
WTA Indian Wells – Paula Badosa champion – 40/1
WTA Indian Wells – Victoria Azarenka runner-up – 33/1
2020:
Didn’t play – coronavirus
2019:
WTA Indian Wells – Bianca Andreescu champion – 100/1
2018:
WTA Indian Wells – Naomi Osaka champion – 125/1
WTA Indian Wells – Daria Kasatkina runner-up – 80/1
2017:
WTA Indian Wells – Elena Vesnina champion – 100/1
WTA Indian Wells – Svetlana Kuznetsova runner-up – 50/1
We were on a couple of those players. With Kasatkina a Ones to Watch pick for us back in 2018. And Andreescu picked up on at 30/1 halfway through the tournament in 2019.
As you’ll see in my 2022 preview below, there are plenty of big names in this week’s WTA Indian Wells draw. And we could genuinely talk for hours and still have a dozen or more contenders on the list. As is my Ones to Watch approach – and as backed up by those results from recent years at this particular tournament – I’m only interested in the big-price outsiders here…
Dark horses, and youngsters with potential…
Sorana Cirstea (100/1+) – the top quarter of the draw has been opened up somewhat by the withdrawal of top seed and world no.2, Barbora Krejcikova. (And world no.1 Ash Barty had already announced that she’s to miss both Indian Wells and Miami this month.) Cirstea is in this section of the Indian Wells draw, and is a player that we backed a couple of times at 40/1 at the very start of the season in January’s Australian Open warm-up tournaments. She went on to have her best-ever run at the main event at Melbourne Park, reaching the Last 16 (4th Round). Age 31, the Romanian has got her fitness levels high; I was interested to hear that for every hour of court-time in training, she spends 90 minutes working without a racket in hand. Sorana often looks on the cusp of producing a big run. Last week, she made the semi finals in Lyon. With a hole in the draw here, Cirstea has an opportunity to make a mark at a big tournament. And as these big March tournaments in the United States have shown us several times before – you can’t rule out the possibility of a triple-figure odds player going all the way.
Dayana Yastremska (100/1+) – we’ve spoken about the 21-year-old Ukrainian a lot lately. You can catch up on main piece from last month here. Yastremska won over a whole new set of fans in Lyon last week, reaching the final, and celebrating each victory draped in the Ukrainian flag, giving some eloquent and emotional interviews. On the court, we’ve always known she’s a fighter. Before the pandemic, Dayana was regularly on my list as an upcoming youngster capable of challenging for big titles, not fearing taking on the star names. I had her paired with Sofia Kenin in that category, and we know what happened there, with the American going on to win a maiden Grand Slam title at 50/1. In her last two tournaments, Yastremska has posted her best results since making her comeback on the tour. Coming through qualifying to reach the quarter finals at WTA Dubai, where she won a total of five consecutive matches. And then putting together a four-match streak in Lyon to make the final. Those hard-court results suggest Dayana is making strong strides in the right direction. At big odds, she’s one to follow, with the hard-hitting game and competitive streak to give anyone on the tour a tough match. If Yastremska beats Caroline Garcia in the 1st round tonight, she’ll face Emma Raducanu in round two. The Brit has struggled with injuries recently, and that could be a key factor here.
Jil Teichmann (100/1 – 66/1) – we’ve backed the 24-year-old Swiss at massive odds before. She’s a left-hander with a somewhat enigmatic quality; capable of breath-taking play at times, but also equally likely to throw away a big lead in a match, as she is to produce a match-point-saving comeback. That all makes Jil worth being aware of in a high-status tournament like this, with plenty of big outsider prices available. Teichmann was a huge-odds finalist at this level last year, also on hard courts in the USA, finishing a 200/1 runner-up to world no.1 Barty at the WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati. Lately, Jil has shown some more flashes of form, with a quarter final in Dubai last month, and reaching the Last 16 at the 1000-grade event in Doha. During that run to the final in Cincinnati last August, Teichmann beat Karolina Pliskova in the semis. World no.8 Pliskova is seeded 7th this week, with a Bye to the 2nd Round, where she could face the Swiss, providing Jil beats Danka Kovinic today. This is Pliskova’s first tournament of 2022, coming back from injury. If she does face Teichmann, then it’s one of the trickiest first-match-back opponents you could have in the early rounds.
Elsewhere in the top half of the draw, I can’t ignore our Ones to Watch in 2022 youngster, Clara Tauson (100/1 – 50/1). The 19-year-old Dane gave a good account of herself at the Australian Open, where we backed her at early-bird odds of 100/1. She was only stopped by one of our other outsider picks, with an in-form Danielle Collins then going all the way to the final. Tauson is yet to win more than two consecutive matches this season – however, as I’ve said before with the young players breaking through, the form can leap to ‘hot’ at any moment. The teenager has a tough assignment here at Indian Wells though, seeded to face 13/2 (7.5) tournament favourite & 3rd seed, Iga Swiatek. The Pole – another of our previous Ones to Watch names – is now up to a career-high no.4 in the world. Iga won the last WTA 1000 event, in Doha last month. And her 2022 match win-loss is an intimidating won 14 lost 3. With those three defeats coming against players in the very best of form: Barty, Collins, and Jelena Ostapenko. Swiatek has my respect, of course. But I’m not a favourite-backer in a field like this. Tauson has the ability and potential, and is the young outsider to follow here.
The bottom section of Quarter 2 includes four seeded names likely to have plenty of backers. Elina Svitolina, Belinda Bencic, and Madison Keys are all around 40/1 each in the tournament Outright Winner market. With Garbine Muguruza at 20/1. Of those, Belinda Bencic (50/1 – 40/1) gets the nod from me. We had the Swiss in the book here at Indian Wells back in 2019, when she went on to reach the semi finals. Last summer, Belinda won Olympic Gold on hard courts. Since then, the next big breakthrough moment has yet to happen. But on hard courts, Bencic is a class act – also reaching the semis at the US Open in 2019. Still age just 24, she is well capable of winning a big trophy.
Quarter 3 tough to call…
In the bottom half of the draw-sheet, Quarter 3 looks mightily competitive. Stacked with an intriguing mix of exciting youngsters, big names, and form horses. Including: reigning Indian Wells champion Paula Badosa (16/1), Ones to Watch names Leylah Fernandez (50/1) and Amanda Anisimova (40/1). The fiery, big-hitting Jelena Ostapenko (16/1), who has won 12 of her last 14 matches on hard courts. And Anett Kontaveit (9/1), who is the only woman to have beaten Ostapenko during that run. Skybet seem to have gone out on a limb for Ostapenko, offering 28/1, while William Hill, Ladbrokes & Coral are 18s, and most others 16/1. Call me bloody-minded, but I want more than 16/1 in an event like this.
The list goes on in that quarter, with former champion and ex-world no.1 Naomi Osaka currently unseeded – but the bookmakers respecting her top-class CV by quoting just 10/1. Osaka faces another big name, Sloane Stephens (80/1), in the very 1st round. The winner of that match will face a potentially dangerous outsider, Veronika Kudermetova (100/1). Kudermetova was runner-up at the WTA 500 in Dubai recently, handed a free pass in the semi final when Marketa Vondrousova pulled out. Talented lefty Vondrousova is also in this section of what is a stacked field, at 66/1 for the trophy.
Jessica Pegula (40/1) in also an outsider to keep an eye out for here. The American plays her best tennis in the States, and reached the quarter final here in 2021. Hard courts are Jessica’s number one surface. Despite back-to-back quarter finals at the Australian Open, she’s only got one title to her name, WTA Washington in 2019. I’m a fan of Pegula’s game, and at more like 100/1 I might’ve been interested here. But as it stands, I’ve got her down as the kind of player who just falls short at the business end of tournaments and in crunch matches.
Pick the bones out of that little lot…! I’m going to wait a day or two in that section, and see if anyone in particular looks like emerging from the pack at a good price.
Jabeur the one at 35/1…
In the 4th Quarter of the draw, the big names keep on coming. Again, prices such as 16/1 (at best) for Maria Sakkari don’t do it for me. Likewise for the wildly erratic world no.3, Aryna Sabalenka, who is 2nd seed here. Sabalenka is a top-price 14/1, and closer to 10/1 in general.
The one for me at exciting odds is Ons Jabeur (35/1 – 33/1). Last year I called the Tunisian one of the best players on the tour yet to have won a title. And then she won one, lifting the trophy on grass in Birmingham last summer. The super-talented 27-year-old has since cracked the Top 10, having pushed on with a quarter final at Wimbledon, another QF at Montreal, a final in Chicago, and then the semi finals at Indian Wells when it was held in October. Injury has slowed Ons down a bit at the start of 2022, but three quarter-final appearances from three tournaments show she’s ready to be challenging for honours again. At 33/1+, Jabeur looks a great outsider to get behind here.
Another angle to consider…
As well as the tournament Outright Winner market, which is where I’m playing at the biggest odds today. I know some of you like to follow our players in the ‘Quarter Winner’ betting, too. These odds pay out on a player coming through their side of the draw to reach the semi final.
Not all the bookies are up with the Quarter markets as I write. Here are some selected quotes for the six women that I’ve focused on:
Quarter 1 – Cirstea 16/1 Skybet, Boylesports
Quarter 1 – Yastremska 14/1 Skybet, 10/1 Boylesports
Quarter 1 – Teichmann @ 12/1 Skybet, Boylesports
Quarter 2 – Tauson 11/1 @ Skybet, 10/1 Boylesports
Quarter 2 – Bencic 7/1 @ Boylesports, 13/2 @ Skybet
Quarter 4 – Jabeur 8/1 @ Skybet, 7/1 Boylesports
Also worth knowing:
Bet365 have a range of outright markets, including ‘To Reach the Final’ – and on some occasions, backing a player via that route can beat the standard 1/2 odds Each Way terms for reaching the final. (Eg. Pairing the Reach the Final bet with a Win Only bet for Outright Winner.)
----------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks:
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
WTA Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open
----------------------------------------------------
Play starts at 7pm, when bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets for the evening.
I’ll be back tomorrow with more from Indian Wells, including a first look at the men’s draw.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson