Tennis Betting Advice - March 2022

Indian Wells - a dangerous outsider at 50/1...

Monday 14th March 2022

Week one of Indian Wells served up plenty of drama, with several players saving match points to grab victory from the jaws of defeat. The opening rounds saw a fair number of shocks & surprises too, helping open up the draws in both the men’s & women’s events…

The list of big-name seeds already departed from this prestigious 1000-grade tournament includes:

Alexander Zverev – men’s no.3 seed – out
Felix Auger-Aliassime – men’s no.9 seed – out

Aryna Sabalenka – women’s no.2 seed – out
Karolina Pliskova – women’s no.7 seed – out
Garbine Muguruza – women’s no.8 seed – out
Jelena Ostapenko – women’s no.10 seed – out
Elina Svitolina – women’s no.12 seed – out
Naomi Osaka – women’s 2018 championout

The ups and downs inevitably mean that we will lose some of our Outright Winner picks along the way.

Women’s tournaments are often the source of our very biggest wins, but the opening days here at WTA Indian Wells 2022 showed what a brutal game this is. With five of our six outsider picks dumped out. Including no.9 seed and 33/1 shot Ons Jabeur, and 50/1+ Ones to Watch teenager Clara Tauson. Both going out in tough three-set encounters.

The men’s early rounds have gone much better for us. With all five of our ATP Indian Wells Each Way picks through to the 3rd Round (original advised prices in brackets):

Cameron Norrie (75/1, 66/1, 50/1)

Reilly Opelka (150/1, 120/1, 100/1, 80/1)

Jannik Sinner (40/1, 33/1)

Taylor Fritz (100/1, 70/1, 66/1)

John Isner (200/1, 150/1, 125/1, 100/1)

  • Opelka, Sinner, and Norrie play in the 3rd round tonight, with Fritz and Isner in action tomorrow

The one lady we have left standing is 150/1 pre-tournament pick, Sorana Cirstea. She’s through to the 4th round (last 16). Tomorrow’s match will be an intriguing encounter, an all-Romanian tie, with Cirstea taking on star name Simona Halep. They haven’t met on the tour for over 10 years, but the head-to-head is 2-1 in favour of our player, the underdog.

A dangerous outsider at 50/1…

In our day one women’s preview, we discussed how competitive/ wide-open the 3rd Quarter of the draw looked. Since then, the likes of Ostapenko, Amanda Anisimova, Osaka, and Jessica Pegula, have all departed.

One player that I described as a dangerous outsider is VERONIKA KUDERMETOVA. The 24-year-old is currently sitting at a career-high no.24 in the world rankings, having reached two WTA finals already this season…

Veronika featured on my pre-season Ones to Watch report in 2020, as a 22-year-old. Since then, Kudermetova has won WTA Charleston at 66/1 (2021). And last season, I backed her three times at rank outsider odds of 200/1+.

Here in California, Kudermetova has built on her good start to 2022, with a straight-sets win over Osaka. In the past, I’ve said that Veronika sometimes hits too many double faults to allow me to fully trust her. In recent matches though, she’s kept a nice lid on that bad/ nervy habit. With just one double fault against the former world no.1 last week. And tallies of just one & two double faults respectively, in her two matches prior to Indian Wells.

Already this year, Kudermetova has beaten big names such as Osaka, Muguruza, and Victoria Azarenka – all of them Grand Slam winners, and former world no.1’s. That hard-court form puts the right-hander firmly in my thoughts here, as we enter week two of Indian Wells, with odds of 50/1 and 33/1 Each Way on the table.

In terms of an outsider that has a chance to spring a surprise here, those prices fit well for me today…

Kudermetova is priced as a favourite to beat Marie Bouzkova this evening.

In the next round, woman of the moment Anett Kontaveit could await. Note that Kudermetova has a 3-0 career record against the Estonian, including a 2-0 win on hard courts in Abu Dhabi last year. If that match-up does happen, the pressure will all be on Kontaveit, who is just 6/1 for the title as I write. I’ll take the 50/1 & 33/1 odds, every time.


Ones to Watch picks:

Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

WTA Indian WellsBNP Paribas Open


Play starts at 6pm, when bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets for the evening.

I’ll be back during the week with more from both the men’s and women’s events at Indian Wells.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch