Tennis Betting Advice - March 2022
Indian Wells - rival schools, and polar opposites...
Tuesday 15th March 2022
A late finish for me watching the tennis last night, but it’s all good when our players win through…
We had four Ones to Watch Outright Winner picks in action at Indian Wells on Monday. They all made it to the next round, one way or another.
In the women’s, we made a decent move by backing Veronika Kudermetova yesterday at 50/1, 40/1, or 33/1. The 24-year-old progressed to the Last 16. Opponent Marie Bouzkova twisted her ankle at the end of the first set, and retired early in the second – with our player winning the opener, 6-4.
In this morning’s revised women’s outright market, Kudermetova is now trading at 22/1 & 25/1. She faces a tough opponent in the early hours of tomorrow morning, priced as the underdog to beat Marketa Vondrousova. The talented Czech lefty had a very long match in punishing conditions yesterday though, on court for the best part of three hours, on what was a very hot day in California.
Pepsi does the trick…
In the ATP event, all three of our men required the full three sets on Monday, but rallied well to get the job done in the end. Reilly Opelka and defending Indian Wells champion Cameron Norrie both came from behind to win.
Super-talented youngster Jannik Sinner also got home in a final-set decider, despite feeling unwell. His on-court cure? A can of Pepsi delivered to him by a ball-boy. (Other carbonated beverages are available.)
After all of yesterday’s thrills ‘n’ spills – which included men’s top seed Daniil Medvedev being knocked out by 5/1 match-day outsider Gael Monfils, and Ones to Watch in 2022 youngster Jenson Brooksby beating Stefanos Tsitsipas. The list of big names sent packing early from Indian Wells continues to grow:
Daniil Medvedev – men’s no.1 seed – out
Alexander Zverev – men’s no.3 seed – out
Stefanos Tsitsipas – men’s no.5 seed – out
Casper Ruud – men’s no.8 seed – out
Felix Auger-Aliassime – men’s no.9 seed – out
Aryna Sabalenka – women’s no.2 seed – out
Anett Kontaveit – women’s no.4 seed – out
Karolina Pliskova – women’s no.7 seed – out
Garbine Muguruza – women’s no.8 seed – out
Jelena Ostapenko – women’s no.10 seed – out
Elina Svitolina – women’s no.12 seed – out
Naomi Osaka – women’s 2018 champion – out
Victoria Azarenka – women’s 2021 runner-up – out
Seven at good prices…
Going into the Tuesday schedule, our Outright Winner, Each Way pack now looks like this (original advised prices in brackets):
Sorana Cirstea (150/1, 125/1, 100/1)
Veronika Kudermetova (50/1, 40/1, 33/1)
Cameron Norrie (75/1, 66/1, 50/1)
Reilly Opelka (150/1, 120/1, 100/1, 80/1)
Jannik Sinner (40/1, 33/1)
Taylor Fritz (100/1, 70/1, 66/1)
John Isner (200/1, 150/1, 125/1, 100/1)
Rival schools, and polar opposites…
Two of the form players in the early rounds of the men’s event have been Nick Kyrgios, and Jenson Brooksby. Both have featured regularly in Ones to Watch. They didn’t make my Outright selections for Indian Wells, though. As I always say, we can’t back them all. Tomorrow should be entertaining…
Nick Kyrgios – unseeded here – is (so far) having one of his good tournaments. Well-behaved, saying all the right, positive things. Serving like a dream. And playing some crowd-pleasing stuff. You never know when the wheels will come off with Nick, though – be it fitness issues, or his own inner demons. I like him. But I also like Jannik Sinner…
Our 40/1 Italian will need to bring his high-level game in tomorrow’s meeting with the Aussie, with a Masters 1000 quarter-final place up for grabs. It’s a real clash of styles and personality, with the flare & noise of Kyrgios, up against the ice-man vibes of Sinner.
One thing they do have in common: both of these young men can hit the ball very, very fast. Should be good. The bookies have our man Sinner as the slight favourite. It’ll be their first meeting.
It’s a similar ‘polar opposites’ story elsewhere in the men’s field…
Our 66/1 contender Cameron Norrie will pit his sturdy, left-handed game up against the box of tricks that young Jenson Brooksby will bring. Again, the bookies have our player as the slight favourite.
It sounds like Norrie has done his homework. As we discussed recently, Cameron was a US college tennis star, at TCU (Texas Christian University). Brooksby played for the rival college, Baylor…
"I've always wanted to play him and feel what it's like to play him. I'm looking forward to that, and it's a little bit of a rivalry. He went to Baylor, which is Texas Christian University's rival school … so hopefully I can get him on that one."
Another clash of styles will be on display on court this evening…
And when one player stands 6’10” and the other is 5’7” – the difference is a very physical one, too…
Our 100/1+ pick John Isner is the tall one. Playing in the States on hard courts – albeit not perhaps the fastest hard courts in North America – I’m surprised to see big John as the underdog for this evening’s match with Diego Schwartzman.
The Argentinean came off worse in his only previous encounter with the big-serving American – a tight scoreboard, with the ace-power of Isner proving important in crunch moments, as it has throughout his long career. The score that day indoors at Paris 2017 was 7-6, 6-7, 6-3 to Isner. I’d take a similar result this evening.
Odds-against prices for the American do it for me in this match-up. Isner can be backed at 13/10 (2.3). For a guy who has reached 29 ATP finals in his career, with 25 of them coming in the USA – I’m putting my faith in big John today.
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Ones to Watch picks:
ATP Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open
Match Winner:
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Isner v Schwartzman is scheduled for 9pm+, UK time.
All of the Indian Wells matches are being shown on Amazon Prime Video.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson