Tennis Betting Advice - March 2023
WTA Miami Open - Ones to Watch at 200/1...
Tuesday 21st March 2023
It’s been something of a year for the favourites so far…
Last week’s Indian Wells men’s final was contested by the two pre-tournament jollies. With Carlos Alcaraz beating Daniil Medvedev, at day-one odds of 13/2 (7.5) and 13/5 (3.6), respectively.
The women’s championship match was a repeat of the Australian Open final. This time, Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina beat Aussie Open champ Aryna Sabalenka. The day-one Indian Wells prices there: Rybakina 16/1 (17.0), Sabalenka 8/1 (9.0).
And if we compare the tour calendars from this year and last, the January to March 2023 figures show a marked decrease in the number of big-odds finalists:
2023 - to date: 2 finalists at 50/1+ from 33 tournaments played (3%)
2022 - this time last year: 7 finalists at 50/1+ from 32 tournaments (11%)
Of course, all that could change at any time. Indeed, one could argue that the current 2023 season is ‘due’ a big-price upset…
From 2016 through to 2020, the average for 50/1+ finalists was 15%.
But as it stands, with the ratio of big-odds 2023 finalists running at a lower rate than in recent seasons. It’s perhaps no coincidence that our Ones to Watch outsider bets have yet to yield a ‘Big One’ this year - be it a tournament winner, or Each Way runner-up…
The closest we’ve come so far is 14/1 Each Way pick John Isner, who got to the final at ATP Dallas in February. Isner had four match points in the final… and lost. He’s yet to win a match on tour since that heartbreaker.
Modus operandi…
So, with the Miami Open taking place between now and the end of the month. With the women’s 1st round getting underway this afternoon. And the men in action as of tomorrow…
Am I going to start advising you to back the favourites?
If you’re a long-time member, you’ll already know the answer to that…
Reigning WTA 1000 Miami Open champion Iga Swiatek is around 2/1 to defend her title. But I really don’t think you need me to tell you that the world no.1 has a good chance of getting to a final (!)...
And of course. Of course… Here at Ones to Watch, we were onto Swiatek as a teenager, before she’d ever won a single tournament at senior level. We landed a huge winner on Iga at 100/1 for the French Open 2020, when literally no-one else was talking about her chances.
I’m not telling that story to dine out on previous glories, or divert from the current situation. It’s just a pure & simple reminder of what your Ones to Watch service is all about…
My modus operandi…
In the Outright Winner markets for ATP, WTA, and Grand Slam tennis tournaments:
We back appealing outsiders, at attractive Each Way prices.
And when we’re going for odds of 50/1… 66/1… 100/1+, Each Way. We only need ONE player to break through and do the business for us. We back more losers than winners. But it’s always worth the wait.
WTA Miami Open - Ones to Watch…
Here are my three day-one, price-based picks for the women’s Miami Open…
LINDA FRUHVIRTOVA @ 200/1 - 100/1
We had Linda Fruhvirtova in the book at 100/1 at Indian Wells, and also for the Australian Open. The Czech teenager is most definitely one to watch. A 17-year-old with real pedigree; hungry for success, and confident in her own game. Fruhvirtova made a name for herself here in Miami 12 months ago, winning three matches to reach the Last 16.
LINDA NOSKOVA @ 150/1 - 80/1
Another extremely promising Czech teenager who looks to have all the right attributes to go far in the sport is 18-year-old Linda Noskova. As with Linda F, Noskova has a tough-looking draw here in Miami. But as we always say with the highly-rated youngsters, the breakthrough moment can come at any time - and when it does, they can make a mockery of both the rankings, and the odds.
MARTA KOSTYUK @ 200/1 - 66/1
Marta Kostyuk has been a Ones to Watch regular for us for a few years already - and she’s still only 20 years old. The Ukrainian is playing with immense spirit, visibly emotional on court more than once over the last year, with all that’s happening in her homeland. Marta is up to a career-high no.38 in the world, on the back of a maiden WTA title win at Austin this month.
Kostyuk is one of those exciting young players who has all the power and physical gifts required to succeed - and if she can put her head & game together for a sustained streak, she could prove dangerous in a big event like this one, at big odds. Unibet have gone out on a limb at triple figures.
Marta has started 2023 with good results on hard courts, with two other quarter finals to go with that debut trophy win in Austin.
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Ones to Watch picks:
WTA Miami - Miami Open presented by Itau
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Note: to get the very best price combo: 200/1 Each Way with Unibet. Or back 100/1+ Win Only, along with 100/1 To Reach the Final with Bet365.
Note: to get the very best price combo: 150/1 Each Way with Unibet. Or back 100/1 Win Only & 80/1 To Reach the Final with Bet365.
Note: to get the very best price combo: 200/1 Each Way with Unibet. Or back 80/1 Win Only, along with 66/1 To Reach the Final with Bet365.
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Play starts from 3pm, UK time. Bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets during each day’s play.
You can watch the Miami Open live on Amazon Prime Video.
I’ll be back tomorrow with picks & prices for the men’s event.
P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me at:
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson