Tennis Betting Advice - March 2024
Indian Wells - Day 4: Settle in for a Saturday night serve-fest...
Saturday 9th March 2024
Welcome to Day 4 of your DAILY Indian Wells service…
Gael Monfils v Hubert Hurkacz
For our Saturday night feature match, we’re targeting the Tiebreak prices for Gael Monfils v Hubert Hurkacz.
This is the world no.54 v the world no.8 on paper. But don’t let that rankings gap sway you too much here. Monfils’ injury problems have always meant that his ranking fluctuates. Hurkacz is the favourite here - but not by much…
As I said during January’s Australian Open, Hurkacz is the best server in the men’s game right now in terms of racking up the aces. But he does struggle to generate break-point chances on an opponent’s serve…
That being the case, Hubi gets himself involved in A LOT of tiebreak, 7-6 sets.
Indeed, just recently, across the ATP Rotterdam and ATP Dubai tournaments in February, the big-serving Pole had a period of matches in which he played out nine tiebreak sets in a row.
That run included back-to-back three-set matches in which the scoreboard was completely dominated by 7-6 scores…
At the Aussie Open, all five of Hubi’s matches produced tiebreaks.
If we take that early 2024 form as an odds-compiling guide, then right now, a Hurkacz match is few percentage points more likely to produce a 7-6 set then the bookies’ prices for tonight’s match make out. With Unibet going 3/4 (1.75) for Over 0.5 Tiebreaks in the Match, Bet365 at 8/11 (1.73), and William Hill at 7/10 (1.7) for a Tiebreak in the Match.
If you want one go-to bet for Monfils v Hurkacz, the Tiebreak is the place to go.
Consider, too, similar prices for a Total Games ‘Over’ wager. Bet365 go 5/6 (1.83) for Over 23.5 Games, for example.
For bigger odds, you could target Monfils 7-6 or Hurkacz 7-6 in the specific, Set Correct Score markets (eg. 1st Set, 2nd Set scores…).
And for my own idea of a price pick with a nice potential payout, Over 1.5 Tiebreaks is the call, available at odds of 13/2 (7.5) with a couple of firms as I write…
Monfils can mix it on his own serve, too. The Frenchman has paid out on the Over 1.5 ‘breakers option on two occasions so far this season, from a total of 12 matches played. In other words, you’d be showing an overall profit if you’d taken this bet at this price in every Monfils match so far in 2024.
Ditto for Hurkacz, with five x Over 1.5 Tiebreaks in the Match results so far this year.
The career head-to-head for these two is tied at one win apiece, with both played on outdoor hard courts - as will be tonight’s match at Indian Wells. Although they haven’t met since back in 2019… that match did see a 7-6 score in the second set.
All told: expect to see a tiebreak or two in this match. And for the most appealing price, take Over 1.5 Tiebreaks at 13/2.
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Ones to Watch picks – Indian Wells:
See above for full details
Men’s 2nd Round
Gael Monfils v Hubert Hurkacz
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Saturday’s play starts from 7pm, UK time. With Monfils v Hurkacz expected to be on court late at night.
You can watch the match live on Sky Sports (court selection). Or live streaming with bookies including Bet365 and Skybet.
I’ll be back on Sunday with your Day 5 email…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:
oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone