Tennis Betting Advice - March 2024

Indian Wells - Day 6: Another enigma, another big price...

Monday 11th March 2024

Welcome to Day 6 of your Indian Wells service…

We’re all about the big prices…

There are two phrases I repeatedly find myself using to describe women’s tournaments:

Wide-open draws

And rollercoaster matches

So far at WTA Indian Well 2024, we’ve seen plenty of evidence of both. And we’re still only in the 3rd round…

In terms of the women’s draw. Six of the world’s Top 10 are already out. Including world no.4 and the reigning Indian Wells champion, Elena Rybakina – who pulled out citing illness…

Is there a bug going round at Tennis Paradise? Our 150/1 Ones to Watch youngster Dayana Yastremska also had to withdraw, after feeling unwell on court.

  • Our 50/1 shot Marketa Vondrousova has also pulled out, due to personal reasons. Opening the door for our 100/1 pick Marta Kostyuk, who moves through to the Last 16 with a Walkover…

Elsewhere, there have been very close shaves for two of the biggest names in the game. With Grand Slam winners Coco Gauff (coming from 2-5 down in final set), and Aryna Sabalenka (saving four match points, including three in a row from 40-0 down on her opponent’s serve), both coming back from the brink to avoid early elimination.

File those dramatic comebacks in the ‘rollercoaster’ category. Along with a couple of our targeted 2-1 Set Betting score selections last night. With our Sunday picks delivering two out of three, for a winning double which paid just over 18/1 with Unibet and 17/1 with Betfred. We’re going again with this small stakes, big odds angle this evening…

73/1 for more scoreboard drama tonight…

Here are my three picks for the 2-1 win in the women’s Set Betting markets today. Best prices 16/5 (4.2) each with Ladbrokes & Coral:

Anna Blinkova to win 2-1 v Diane Parry

  • Blinkova is in-form, but no stranger to a three-set battle: 5 of her last 6 matches have gone that way. Parry is a young player on the up, and will bed in for a scrap here…

Maria Sakkari to win 2-1 v Caroline Garcia

  • The career head-to-head between these two hard-to-predict players is tied at 3-3. Sakkari brings the better overall track record at this event on these Indian Wells courts – and has come out on top in their last 3 meetings…

Elina Svitolina to win 2-1 v Emma Navarro

  • Upcoming young American Navarro is dangerous right now, but Svitolina has been building up a head of steam ever since returning to the tour as a mother. This one could go very close, with the big-match grind-it-out experience of the older player potentially proving the difference…

As I said, I like these 2-1 Set Betting picks as small stakes, big odds selections…

The advice again being to split a stake four ways across a Trixie, which is made up of three doubles and the 73/1 treble (eg. 0.25 points x 4 = 1 pt total stake).

All major bookies offer Set Betting markets. Here’s how today’s picks look on the coupon at Ladbrokes (using a £10 total stake example):

Indian Wells Trixie

Can’t resist Sloane at these prices…

As well as wide-open draws and rollercoaster matches, you and I often talk about certain Ones to Watch players as enigmas or hit and miss

You can count my 33/1 pick from last week, Jelena Ostapenko (fell at first hurdle) in that category. Along with our big Wimbledon winner from last summer, Marketa Vondrousova.

Another name in this category for us – and has been for many years – is SLOANE STEPHENS. The American is supremely talented, but also wildly unpredictable…

One thing’s for sure though: when Sloane is on it, she’s brilliant. And Stephens tends to save her best tennis for when playing at home in the USA

The current world no.44 (formerly as high as no.3). Stephens won the US Open for us as a 40/1 outsider back in 2017. And the second biggest title of her career also came here in the States – collecting the Miami Open as a 66/1 shot in 2018 (beating Ostapenko in the final).

She’s 30 years old now. But the way she’s dismantled her opponents in the opening two rounds here at Indian Wells, I fancy her chances of continuing that run tonight – and into the business end of proceedings later this week…

Stephens is priced as the slight underdog to beat Daria Kasatkina tonight. That’s despite the American owning a 4-1 head-to-head in this match-up…

As I’ve said before, sometimes a head-to-head is particularly meaningful. And I reckon this is one of them. Sloane has more power than Kasatkina – and can match the Russian at her own game when it comes to court craft, drop-shots, slices and the like. Daria is one of the most likeable people on the tour – but she might just lack the killer instinct when it comes to competing for the biggest trophies.

We’ll take the Match Winner price for Sloane tonight. Due on court around 7.30pm UK time.

And looking at some of the massive Outright Winner odds still being dangled by the bookies, we need to get involved in the tournament market, too. Win tonight, and Stephens will face an unseeded opponent for a place in the quarter finals…

Standout prices of 225/1, 175/1, and 100/1 are on offer…

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Ones to Watch picks – Indian Wells:

See above for full details

WTA Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open

Women’s 3rd Round matches this evening

Set Betting:

  • TRIXIE. Blinkova 2-1, Sakkari 2-1, Svitolina 2-1 – best odds Ladbrokes, Coral (73/1 the treble), William Hill (68/1), Unibet, BetUK & BetMGM (66/1) 

Match Winner:

  • Sloane Stephens to beat Daria Kasatkina @ 11/10 (2.1) William Hill, Bet365, 21/20 (2.05) BetVictor, Evens (2.0) Skybet, Boylesports, Betway 

Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

  • Sloane Stephens @ 225/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 175/1 Skybet, 100/1 Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, BetUK & BetMGM, 80/1 others. Also available: 66/1 to Reach the Final (Bet365)

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The Outright markets will get taken down when the day’s play starts, from 6pm UK time.

You can watch all the Indian Wells action live on Sky Sports, with multi-court coverage. Or via live streaming with bookies such as Bet365 and Skybet.

I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 7 email.

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:

oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch