Indian Wells - Day 7: Proof that anything can happen...

Tuesday 12th March 2024

Welcome to Day 7 of your Indian Wells service…

I’m always fascinated by the anything-can-happen nature of sport…

When it comes to betting… if anyone, anywhere, EVER tells you that a bet is ‘nailed on’ – then they are NOT to be trusted. Believe me. Listen to me:

There is no such thing as a nailed-on winner. It. Is. Not. True.

No player, no team…

No horse, no racing car…

Nobody is unbeatable. Believing anything else is a one-way ticket to the poor house.

18/1 in a two-horse race…

Last night at Indian Wells, world no.1 Novak Djokovic was beaten by Luca Nardi.

A 20-year-old newcomer ranked no.123 in the world… who is only even in this tournament because another player pulled out injured. Granting the young Italian a ‘Lucky Loser’ ticket into the main draw…

Any tennis match, boxing bout, snooker or darts match… is in essence never anything more than a two-horse race. Nardi was 16/1 in general, 18/1 with Ladbrokes & Coral – and you would’ve been able to get even bigger on the betting exchanges…

I didn’t back Nardi. I thought the upcoming youngster would give a good account of himself against the Grand Slam superstar. But even a long-time underdog bettor like me didn’t get behind the outsider’s chances in that one…

A reminder to us all that favourites don’t always win. And as the late, enthusiastically great Murray Walker used to say as the engines roared on the Silverstone starting grid: anything can happen – and it usually does!

• Talking of the horses… it’s Cheltenham Festival this week. The action starts this afternoon. Our man Nick Pullen’s first target race is at 2.50pm. Like me, Nick is only interested in getting the favourites beat… you still have time to join him for Cheltenham… get onboard for instant access here >>

The biggest shock since…

Djokovic’s shock loss was the biggest such upset at an ATP 1000 Masters event since…

Well, since just last year, actually…

Last May in Rome, world no.2 Carlos Alcaraz suffered a surprise defeat to world no.135 Fabian Marozsan. An upset that paid a top price of 25/1. As I said at the time, that was one of the biggest match underdog prices I’ve ever seen.

It just so happens that Alcaraz and Marozsan meet again tonight…

This is their first re-match since that big surprise last spring. If the normal order of things is restored – as it was at WTA Indian Wells last week, with women’s no.1 Iga Swiatek gaining revenge over her teenage Australian Open conqueror, Linda Noskova. Then Spanish star Alcaraz will reward short-odds favourite followers at just 1/10 (1.1) or shorter (!).

Marozsan, now age 24 and up to no.58 in the rankings. Goes off at 8/1 at best this time. Still an eye-catching price in a two-horse race. But not the double-figures we saw first time around. And make no mistake, Carlos will want to level-up this head-to-head. That defeat in Rome made the headlines, such was the scale of the surprise at the time.

When Alcaraz went out of Rome last May, his exit left the door open for one of our best results of the season. With our 28/1 Ones to Watch pick Daniil Medvedev taking full advantage that week, and going on to win the biggest clay-court title of his career…

Opening the door…

With Djokovic having been sent packing from ATP Indian Wells in just the 3rd round. The top half of the men’s draw in particular has now been opened up. And we have two men on the sheet here…

• Casper Ruud, backed at a top price of 60/1, and 50/1 in general, in our men’s preview last week. The Norwegian world no.9 is through to the Last 16, having yet to drop a set across his opening two matches. In today’s revised Outright Winner market, Ruud is now trading at 16/1 at best and 14/1 in general

• Grigor Dimitrov is also through to the Last 16 without dropping a set. In the book from Day 2 at a standout 66/1, with plenty of 50/1+ about at the time. The gifted Bulgarian is now 28/1 at best, and as short as 18/1 in places

Jiri playing great…

In the bottom half of the men’s draw, where Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner reside as the big threats on paper. We have our 250/1 rank outsider, in-form long-shot, Jiri Lehecka. The young Czech has already shown what he can do on these courts – thumping world no.5 Andrey Rublev in the last round, in straight sets…

If Jiri can keep up that fierce and consistent ball-striking this week, then he can take sets off anyone in the draw – that’s for sure. Next up for our 22-year-old, world no.32 Ones to Watch outsider: a clash this evening with world no.11 Stefanos Tsitsipas. Should be an entertaining start to tonight's proceedings…

• In the tournament betting, the bookies still make our youngster a huge underdog for the trophy – now trading at 100/1 across the board. If Lehecka takes out another big name today, then that price will have to drop to two figures…

Lehecka v Tsitsipas is first up on Stadium 2 court, from 6pm UK time.

Berdych in the box…

There’s plenty to like about young Lehecka. Including the fact that he has Tomas Berdych in his player box, offering support from the stands, and wisdom & advice from behind the scenes…

If you remember him from his days on the tour, Berdych was basically the archetypal modern male Czech tennis player: hitting the ball hard and clean, with the ability to blast opponents away – when & if the plan was executed to full potential. As my sister once exclaimed when asking me who I was watching on the TV… look how muscley his legs are!

Age 20, Berdych was a big breakthrough winner at the ATP Paris Masters back in 2005. Age 22, Lehecka has the ability to do something similar in my opinion. Either right here, right now at Indian Wells. Or later this season, or beyond… I want us to be on him if he does.

To my eyes, Lehecka may well turn out to be a better all-round player than Berdych. It’s early days to be comparing Jiri to the former world no.4. But Tomas never quite made his mark at the Grand Slams. And I reckon Jiri has a bit of mental steel about him that can help the newcomer really stamp his authority in big-match situations.

2-1 Set Betting picks, take 3…

We’re in profit from these so far at this tournament. And in terms of this evening’s matches, three more contests catch the eye as potential three-set encounters. With the 2-1 Set Betting score the route to take for the biggest odds…

Another small stakes, big odds combo is the call. Splitting a 1-point stake four ways, across three doubles and the full-house treble…

Men:

• Alexander Zverev to win 2-1 v Alex De Minaur. The head-to-head is 6-2 to Zverev. De Minaur won their last meeting, this year. Three of their last 4 encounters have gone to the full 3 sets. With the German priced as the slight underdog today, I’m drawn to Sascha Zverev here. His big serve could get him over the line…

Women:

• Marta Kostyuk to win 2-1 v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. We’re on Kostyuk as a 100/1 Ones to Watch pick. The 21-year-old Ukrainian looks to be edging ever closer to a big tournament ‘moment.’ Marta had a Walkover in the last round, and the younger woman may ultimately prove to have more in the tank in the closing stages, should this one go long. Russian Pavlyuchenkova had a gruelling 3-setter in the last round, and will know all about the passion that Kostyuk brings – having lost 2-1 to the youngster in San Diego earlier this month…

• Angelique Kerber to win 2-1 v Caroline Wozniacki. What a story here. Two former Grand Slam champions, both former world no.1’s. Both have returned to the tour after becoming mothers. Now both in their thirties, the career head-to-head is 8-7 to Kerber, although they haven’t played each other since 2018. This could be a nail-biter. Caro had a 3-set tussle in the last round. The bookies can’t split them. Going on what I’ve seen so far, I’m with Angie…

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Ones to Watch picks – Indian Wells:

See above for full details

4th Round (Last 16) matches – from around 8pm, UK time

Set Betting:

• TRIXIE. Zverev 2-1, Kostyuk 2-1, Kerber 2-1 – best odds Unibet, BetUK & BetMGM (94/1 the treble), Ladbrokes & Coral (90/1)

Set Betting markets available with all major bookmakers.

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You can watch all the Indian Wells action live on Sky Sports, with multi-court coverage. Or via live streaming with bookies such as Bet365 and Skybet.

I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 8 email.

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:

oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch