Tennis Betting Advice - March 2024
Indian Wells - Day 8: Playing the underdog prices...
Wednesday 13th March 2024
Welcome to Day 8 of your Indian Wells service…
100/1 shots aren’t supposed to get to the quarter finals. Even more so 250/1 shots…
We’ve got two players through to the last eight at those prices…
Marta Kostyuk in the women’s. Backed on Day 3, before she’d struck a ball in this tournament. At odds of 100/1 for the trophy, and 80/1 to reach the final.
After the 21-year-old Ukrainian bullied an unhappy-looking Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova off the court last night – crushing the scoreboard 6-4, 6-1, with the Russian wilting fast in the afternoon heat. Kostyuk is now trading at 25/1 in general, and 9/1 to get to the final.
Jiri Lehecka in the men’s. Franking the big write-up that I gave him yesterday. The 22-year-old Czech recorded his second consecutive straight-sets victory over a higher-ranked opponent. Once again overturning the underdog odds. This time seeing off world no.11 Stefanos Tsitsipas, 6-2, 6-4. Backing up his impressive 6-4, 6-4 win over world no.5 Andrey Rublev.
We got behind Lehecka at massive prices in our men’s preview at the start of the tournament. In the book at a standout 250/1 Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places). As anticipated, Jiri’s latest victory has seen his price chopped in half overnight, with yesterday’s 100/1 now 50/1… and the bookies now offering reduced Each Way terms of 1/3 odds for reaching the final.
Opportunity knocks for Casper and Grigor…
Before the event, I’d have said the women’s Indian Wells field was more likely to provide us with our ‘Big One.’ And that may prove the case, with Marta Kostyuk flying the flag for us at 100/1. But in the men’s draw, with world no.1 Novak Djokovic already out, we have a total of three players remaining…
With Casper Ruud (60/1 – 50/1) and Grigor Dimitrov (66/1 – 50/1) each looking to follow Jiri Lehecka into the quarter finals tonight…
Ruud is the favourite to beat Gael Monfils. Dimitrov is the outsider v Daniil Medvedev, but won their most recent meeting.
Navarro on the up…
Going back to the WTA event, there’s one more lady who I want to follow here…
This one has been nagging at the back of my mind for a few days now. And considering the Outright, Win Only price for EMMA NAVARRO has barely changed since the start of the tournament – with 66/1 and 50/1 still available this afternoon. My underdog antenna is twitching…
Navarro takes on one of the big names this evening, on court first up in the day’s play (6pm, UK time), against world no.2 Aryna Sabalenka…
The two-time reigning Australian Open champ is of course a heavy favourite in the betting. But Sabalenka has not been at her brutal best so far. She had to save multiple match points in her opener, against Peyton Stearns. And could face another tough scrap when facing another fast-improving young American today, in 22-year-old Navarro…
The American is up to a career-best ranking of no.23. Emma has made two semi finals and a final on hard courts already this year. Including making the final four in San Diego the week before Indian Wells.
We were on Navarro at 80/1 – 50/1 in Doha last month, where she made the Last 16…
As well as that stern test against Stearns (sorry), Sabalenka also had a harder match in the last round v Emma Raducanu than the 2-0 score-line might suggest. If you watched the match, then you’ll have seen that the British player’s attacking game made life uncomfortable for the Belarusian. Navarro plays in a similar, front-foot fashion. If she brings the right attitude here and doesn’t let too many nerves in, then Emma N can cause Sabalenka problems…
Add in the fact that this match is an 11am start, local time. And sometimes the stadium is somewhat less than full for the first match on court, lacking in a bit of atmosphere. Which might just help the underdog to impose herself on Sabalenka, especially if the favourite is in any way off the pace or makes a sluggish start…
This is an outsider betting situation, of course. The world no.2 is expected to win. But there’s something in these match and tournament prices that makes me feel there’s some value to be had about the underdog today…
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Ones to Watch picks – Indian Wells:
See above for full details
WTA Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open
Match Winner:
Outright Winner and to Reach the Final:
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Play starts from 6pm…
You can watch all the Indian Wells action live on Sky Sports, with multi-court coverage. Or via live streaming with bookies such as Bet365 and Skybet.
I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 9 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:
oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone