Tennis Betting Advice - March 2024
Miami Open women: Ones to Watch at 80/1 and 250/1...
Tuesday 19th March 2024
Thanks for your emails over the last couple of days. It’s been fascinating to find out who watches the tennis – and who doesn’t…
With replies to my question on the topic prompting responses ranging from ‘I stay up ‘til 3am like you do’… to ‘I just follow your picks and hope for the best!’…
We move from California to Florida this week. With the Miami Open, which is these days held at the Miami Gardens, Hard Rock Stadium complex – home of the Miami Dolphins NFL team.
Waking up to sad news…
The USA-UK time difference is four hours here. As I sit down to write this women’s Miami Open preview this morning, it’s still pre-breakfast time in Miami. That being the case, some breaking news may well impact the market, and see one of the favourites pull out.
With the tragic news that Aryna Sabalenka’s boyfriend, Konstantin Koltsov, has passed away. We send our condolences. And can only assume that the world no.2 will of course now withdraw from the Miami Open.
When that transpires, then the women’s Outright Winner market will get a bit of an alteration from the bookies. As I write, 2nd seed Sabalenka has drifted from 9/1 to 12/1 with Bet365, but remains as short as 5/1 elsewhere. I fully expect the Belarusian to play no part in the event, if this morning’s sad news is correct.
It’s my job to play the markets as I see then. And without wanting to appear to do anything as unsavoury as capitalise on a terrible real-life situation. I have to point out that if someone such as returning former world no.1 and two-time Miami semi-finalist SIMONA HALEP wins her 1st round match against the low on confidence and injury-plagued Paula Badosa tonight. Then the Romanian will move into the next round and now most likely face a Lucky Loser from the qualifying rounds, in place of Sabalenka.
Simona on the comeback…
Let it be said at this point that I already had Halep in my notes here, before the news broke. Unlike a player returning to the tour after injury, or having a baby. The currently unranked 32-year-old has been fighting her case after receiving a ban for allegedly/ accidentally taking a prohibited substance…
The former French Open & Wimbledon champion was cleared the other day, after a ridiculously long process from the powers that be. And Simona was raring to go – heading straight to Miami having been quickly given a Wild Card entry. Arriving before many of the other players, who were still on Indian Wells business or competing elsewhere, such as the lower-tier event in Charleston.
Halep has been keeping herself fit, ready and waiting for this day to come. She holds a 2-0 career head-to-head record against tonight’s opponent in the headline, final match up on the day one schedule, Badosa.
One thing you can’t practise for, of course, is match sharpness. But if she gets the win tonight, and the draw pans out how we now think it will. Then Halep could get a couple of victories under her belt, before climbing through the gears…
We’ll take odds of 50/1+ as a Ones to Watch outsider here, with this one falling into the ‘on the comeback’ category. 66/1, 70/1, and a standout 80/1 is available. Although we can’t control what the bookmakers will do with the market and prices, should the Sabalenka announcement come before you read this email.
Shnaider on the up…
One other WTA Miami pick to tell you about before they play today is in the ‘young and on the up’ bracket, and that’s Ones to Watch in 2024 teenager, DIANA SHNAIDER…
The 19-year-old Russian featured in my women’s preview notes for Indian Wells last time out. She took Maria Sakkari to the full three sets in round two, and the Greek player went on to reach the final. Shnaider headed off to Charleston, and made the final there, instead…
Diana has been showing good hard-court promise for a while now. Also winning a maiden full-level WTA title in Hua Hin, Thailand last month (as a 40/1 outsider). The teenager plays the attacking, no-fear tennis that we like…
She can be hit or miss, of course. And is still a bit rough around the edges. But Shnaider has weapons. And she’s dangerous in a draw like this. Win tonight against the ailing 43-year-old Venus Williams, who is on what is surely a sentimental final lap before retiring – and the teenager will then face another American, the seeded Madison Keys… and Keys has been hard to trust for a long time.
Miami has previous for producing surprise finalists and winners at massive odds. Just last year, Petra Kvitova turned back the years to win at 100/1. We’ll take a flyer on young Shnaider, with 250/1 and 200/1 on offer…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
WTA Miami – Miami Open presented by Itau
Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
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The Outright markets will get taken down when the day’s play starts, from 3pm UK time.
You can watch all the Miami Open action live on Sky Sports, with multi-court coverage. Or via live streaming with bookies such as Bet365.
I’ll be back tomorrow with your men’s Miami preview.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:
oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone