Tennis Betting Advice - March 2024
Miami Open: repeat business at 66/1 and 100/1...
Wednesday 20th March 2024
Just like Indian Wells last week, the Miami Open is a big event, with a history of surprises. And warrants us having several rolls of the dice in the Outright Winner markets. Especially at the prices we go for…
There’s also evidence of a correlation between players doing well and showing form at Indian Wells. And then going on to deliver again – or do even better – next time out in Miami…
I don’t call these two tournaments ‘March madness’ for nothing:
Last week in California, Maria Sakkari was a 66/1 runner-up. Last year here in Florida, Petra Kvitova won the women’s title at 100/1…
In the men’s, Hubert Hurkacz was a 100/1 Miami champion in 2021. With Casper Ruud a 40/1 finalist the year after…
Let’s stick with the big prices…
Repeat business…
Looking at who we backed at Indian Wells, and who could go well for us again at a nice price…
We can’t get 100/1 again for last week’s big pick MARTA KOSTYUK. But with 66/1 available, and a very winnable route through the early rounds on paper. The 21-year-old Ukrainian could reward us with another exciting run here at Miami Gardens. After that Indian Wells semi final, Marta’s up to a new career-high ranking of no.26 in the world.
Keeping the young and fast-rising players on our side, EMMA NAVARRO needs to go in the book for us again here, too…
The 22-year-old American has just hit a new high ranking, cracking the Top 20 for the first time, on the back of an impressive run to the Indian Wells quarter finals. All four of Emma’s matches went to the full three sets there. If she can get a bit more ruthless at sealing the win early on, then she might just have that extra bit of magic left in the tank for when she needs it.
Odds of 66/1, 60/1 and 50/1 are on offer. Navarro’s 2024 form says she’s definitely one to watch – and possibly being slightly underrated:
And for a 100/1 shot to keep us entertained…
ANASTASIA POTAPOVA is, like Kostyuk, a former Ones to Watch-listed teenager – who is now starting to show some serious title-challenging threat in her early twenties…
The 22-year-old Russian reached the quarter finals here at the Hard Rock Stadium last year. And also made the quarter finals at Indian Wells just last week (beaten by Kostyuk) – her third QF from six tournaments in 2024. A minor injury niggle may have cleared up since that defeat. And, from what I’ve seen of Potapova so far this season, the world no.29 looks to have great physical conditioning overall, and be on the way to maturing as a big-match player.
In the men’s event…
Last week we were on Casper Ruud at 60/1 and 50/1. And the Norwegian, on his new lean 2024 diet, reached the quarter finals. The 25-year-old world no.8 is a former runner-up here in Miami. My problem here is the price is quite a bit shorter, without much to convince me to take it. He’s 33/1 and 28/1 this time. We can’t back them all, and I’m in search of just a bit more juice than that…
TOMMY PAUL is maybe still being under-appreciated in the sport. The quiet, hat-down-over-the-eyes American is doing great things, though – just without making fuss about it…
Paul beat Ruud to reach the Indian Wells semi finals last week. He came within a second-set tiebreak of reaching a first ATP 1000 Masters final – eventually reeled in by Top 5 star Daniil Medvedev. Tommy is no.14 in the world right now, and the no.2 American male, behind Taylor Fritz.
Odds of 40/1 across the board appeal here, in a market that doesn’t include world no.1 Novak Djokovic. The 26-year-old Paul, who seems to prefers life on his mother’s farm to living the glamourous lifestyle – has been showing real consistency and top-level ability for some time now:
One last pick for us here in week one…
With chunky, triple-figure prices available once again for the big-hitting JIRI LEHECKA…
The up-and-coming 22-year-old Czech got a lot of column inches from me at Indian Wells. I really like his game right now. Jiri has the big weapons for attacking (serve, heavy groundstrokes) – and crucially, the world no.27 also looks to have the smarts to construct points well and move his opponents around the court. Suggesting he has a great ‘onboard computer’ – which is something we really like to see from an exciting young player…
We’ll take 100/1+ again for Lehecka. He looks like he has a big run in him this season.
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
WTA Miami – Miami Open presented by Itau
Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
ATP Miami – Miami Open presented by Itau
Men’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
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Most bookies will take down their Outright markets when the day’s play starts, from 3pm UK time.
None of the above picks are playing today, though – so if you miss the markets this afternoon, then look to back our players tomorrow.
You can watch all the Miami Open action live on Sky Sports, with multi-court coverage. Or via live streaming with bookies such as Bet365 and Skybet.
I’ll be back next week with a Miami update…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:
oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone