Tennis Betting Advice - March 2026
Indian Wells picks at 66/1, 100/1, and 150/1...
Wednesday 4th March 2026
Indian Wells starts this evening. One of the biggest tournaments of the year. And an event ripe with big-odds history…
Last year we landed an Each Way payout from men’s runner-up Holger Rune here (he’s currently out with a long-term injury). Back in 2022, we were on home hope Taylor Fritz at a top price of 100/1, and he went on to have the fortnight of his life and take the biggest title of his career. This time, Fritz is 33/1 at best.
The quest for 2026 glory starts today, with play starting in the men’s and women’s 1st-round draws from 7pm UK time (live on Sky Sports Tennis)...
The Ones to Watch mantra:
Let’s get into it…
There will no doubt be plenty of mainstream media and/ or lazy journalism about this week, ‘helpfully’ informing you that the highest-ranked players in the world are - drumroll please - believe it or not, the favourites to win the trophy…
In the ATP Indian Wells event, that means the Top 2, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. The former has won it twice already; the latter is yet to collect any silverware here. The bookies make Alcaraz the outright favourite at 11/8 (2.38), with Sinner around 13/8 (2.63). In the Name the Finalists market, Bet365 go just 15/8 (2.88) for an Alcaraz-Sinner final.
In the WTA Indian Wells betting, things are less certain. World no.1 Aryna Sabalenka is the 11/4 (3.75) favourite to win the title for what would be the first time. She’s got to the final in two of the last three years. On the other side of the women’s draw, following the line of favouritism and ranking, it’s two-time former champ Iga Swiatek (6/1), or 2023 winner Elena Rybakina (5/1) - with Bet365 this morning going 10/1 for a Sabalenka-Swiatek final, and 11/1 for Sabalenka-Rybakina.
As discussed at length in our previous annual Indian Wells previews, and in the build-up last week. There is a long line of big-price winners and finalists, upsets, shocks & surprises at this month’s Sunshine Double events - Indian Wells, followed by the Miami Open. Here are our day-one outsiders for the trip to the Californian desert…
Indian Wells - Men’s…
Former world no.1 and current no.11 Daniil Medvedev would be many people’s idea of a best-of-the-rest candidate outside of the Top 2 here, at 28/1 - 20/1. The 30-year-old Russian has already won two titles in 2026, and has gone semi-final, final, final on his last three trips to Indian Wells. However, at the last update, Medvedev was still stranded in a hotel in Dubai after his latest trophy win, unable to get a flight to the USA due to the unfolding international situation.
I’m all about young guns and Ones to Watch prospects here. The three men I like are all in the bottom half of the draw, which houses Sinner, and I’m okay with that - the take being, the machine-like Italian isn’t currently operating at the magic-racket levels of Alcaraz.
Last month we looked at the injury comeback being made by one of our top young men’s names from the last couple of years, ARTHUR FILS. Since that article, the 21-year-old Frenchman, ranked no.32, has made a quarter final in Montpellier, and then a final in Doha. That’s some very positive hard-court form. As we noted last month, we are intending to keep Fils very much in mind for big-odds opportunities at this year’s ATP Masters 1000 events. That mission starts now, with odds of 150/1 and 100/1 widely available.
In terms of American men with title aspirations here, along with Fritz at 33/1, Ben Shelton at the same price is up there in my thinking. Shelton has won nine of his last 10 matches, beating Fritz in the Dallas final in February. However, Ben gets drawn into too many three-set scraps for my liking, while often coming unstuck (for now) against the top names. The 23-year-old world no.8 had to come through four three-set matches in a row in Dallas, and with Indian Wells playing the same best-of-three-set format, Shelton backers may find themselves sweating on some close scorelines.
Shelton could meet LEARNER TIEN in the early stages here, and of those two American left-handers, my preference is for the reliable hitting, understated presence, and 100/1+ price tag of the younger man. The 20-year-old Tien came out on top (on grass) in his only previous tour meeting with Shelton. And having featured in our Ones to Watch in 2026 Report at the start of the year, I want to follow the new kid on the block at what is to all intents and purposes a home tournament for him (indeed, Leaner used to come here as a kid as a fan).
Last but not least - for now - in the men’s field. Last March’s Miami Open champion, and another Ones to Watch youngster, JAKUB MENSIK. He has the serve, he has the power, and he now has the ATP 1000 title-winning experience, too. Injury concerns have tended to crop up. But the 20-year-old world no.12 has the big-match ability to take it to the top players, and you can’t teach that. We can’t ignore the 80/1 in general here, and even more so the 100/1 being dangled by a couple of firms (see below).
Indian Wells - Women’s…
Talking of triple-figure odds, Maria Sakkari is one to keep an eye on as a rank outsider in the women’s field. I’ve discussed before the fact that nerves and a lack of killer instinct have perhaps inhibited her rise in the sport. But back now working with coach Tom Hill (fun fact: this is a rare case of player and coach having been born in the same year), the current version we’re seeing of Sakkari looks that bit more dialled-in than in recent years. Starting the season with a run to the WTA 1000 semi final in Doha is a good sign, as is beating Swiatek along the way. They could meet again here in the 3rd round, though, and that might just come too early for the Greek. The career head-to-head is 4-4, but the Pole has thrashed Maria 2-0 in both previous meetings at Indian Wells.
Back on the injury-comeback trail now, and in this same section of the draw, QINWEN ZHENG has the serve and bigtime mentality to go very well at 66/1. As with Fils, the 23-year-old Chinese star made the quarter finals on her last visit to the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, before injury put pay to her 2025 season. We backed the former world no.4 (currently no.24) at Doha last month at 50/1 - 33/1. Her serve was looking great there, and Zheng can continue her climb back up the ladder by showcasing her clean, accurate, and powerful hitting on these North American hard courts.
Four of our frequent-flyers in terms of women’s Ones to Watch youngsters have all landed in the 2nd Quarter of the draw, where Coco Gauff remains a vulnerable-looking star name with some ropey form shown in recent weeks. When Coco’s good, she’s very good. But when she has a bad day, it’s really bad (and usually with lots of double faults). Those young names being Diana Shnaider (150/1 - 50/1), Linda Noskova (50/1 general), Clara Tauson (around 40/1), and Alexandra Eala (around 200/1). With Gauff yet to make a final at Indian Wells, there’s an opportunity in this part of the draw…
However, we can’t back them all. And for a day-one 100/1 underdog that catches the eye, the SORANA CIRSTEA storyline is one for us to sign up to here. We’ve backed the Romanian in March before. In 2023, Cirstea made the quarter finals in Indian Wells, and then the semi finals in Miami. Now age 35, and having announced that this will be her final year on the tour before retirement, there are echoes of Danielle Collins here… the American won Miami at 100/1 when initially vowing to retire in 2024.
Cirstea has started her farewell season in fine fettle, notably winning the home event in Bucharest last month, without dropping a set. The standard of opposition will be higher this week and next, but the former world no.21 (currently no.35) has shown throughout her career that she has the kind of all-out-attack game style - similar to Collins - that can blast away any opponent when it’s all going well. Sorana also beat Noskova recently, and the Romanian may well turn up here with the right mixture of drive, confidence, and bit between her teeth to put together a special run - one last time.
We’ll polish off our pre-play picks with odds in the region of 50/1 for Ones to Watch in 2026 name, IVA JOVIC. As with Tien in the men’s, this is a homecoming moment for the American teenager. In January, the 18-year-old made a maiden Grand Slam quarter final for us at the Australian Open as a 100/1 shot. Now sitting at a career-high no.18 in the world, it’s all there to be won for this very highly-rated young player. Her draw is tough, I won’t deny it (including Sabalenka in her path). But sometimes, when the new kids turn up, when they’re the real deal, they simply tear up the book…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
ATP Indian Wells - BNP Paribas Open
Arthur Fils @ 150/1 Bet365, Boylesports, BetMGM, VirginBet, BetUK, LiveScoreBet, 125/1 William Hill, Betfred, BetVictor, Betway, 100/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral
Learner Tien @ 150/1 SpreadEx, Sporting Index, 125/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, 100/1 Bet365, William Hill, Betfred, BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway
Jakub Mensik @ 100/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, StarSports, BresBet, PricedUp, 80/1 Bet365, William Hill, Betfred, BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway
WTA Indian Wells - BNP Paribas Open
Qinwen Zheng @ 66/1 Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports, 60/1 BetMGM, VirginBet, BetUK, LiveScoreBet, 50/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Betway, Ladbrokes, Coral
Sorana Cirstea @ 125/1 BetMGM, VirginBet, BetUK, LiveScoreBet, 100/1 Bet365, Betfred, Boylesports
Iva Jovic @ 66/1 BetMGM, VirginBet, BetUK, LiveScoreBet, 50/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway
Play starts from 7pm, at which point bookies will suspend the Outright Winner market for the night.
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Your next Indian Wells email will be on Monday. I’ll be monitoring the form and markets throughout the tournament, which runs from today until the finals on Sunday 14th March. Follow our WhatsApp channel for service updates.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone