Tennis Betting Advice - May 2018
Albot can spring a surprise today…
Wednesday 23rd May 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
An early morning email today with one match catching the eye on the ATP Lyon schedule – see below.
Elsewhere in France in the run-up to next week’s French Open, we backed two women Each Way for the WTA Strasbourg title. Danielle Collins went out 2-1 in the 2nd Round, but 16/1 pick Mihaela Buzarnescu won her 2nd Round match 2-0 and will play in the quarter finals on Thursday.
Albot can spring a surprise today…
John Isner had a decent quarter final run for us a 50/1 outsider in Madrid the other week, but I won’t be backing him as one of the favourites in Lyon this week.
The American ‘serving machine’ is No.10 in the world and as such is one of the few top-ranked players taking part in an ATP tournament this week. Most of the big boys are saving themselves for the upcoming Roland Garros fortnight.
Isner has a poor record in events directly before a Grand Slam: losing in his opening match before the Australian Open, going out in his second match before the US Open, the same again pre-Wimbledon and losing in the 1st Round before the French Open 2017. That’s 4 defeats from 6 matches in events entered prior to each of the last four Grand Slams.
Radu Albot on the other hand is ranked No.97 and has never been higher than 81 in the world. This represents a decent chance for the Moldovan, and crucially there is some encouraging head-to-head form here…
Isner and Albot have met twice before and both meetings have come this year. They were two close matches that both went the distance to three sets, one win apiece, with the scores 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 to Albot and then 5-7, 6-3, 6-4 to Isner the week after. Both matches were on hard courts. Clay favours the underdog Albot here; he has his ‘most winningest’ record on the surface, with 190+ career match wins on clay compared to 66 for Isner.
A few options are in the thinking here. Over 22.5 Games looks a solid enough pick, especially with Isner’s habit of getting into tiebreak (7-6) sets. Albot can be backed with a +3.5 Games Handicap, a head start that could be enough to pay out in a narrow two-set defeat. Both options are odds-on around 8/11 (1.73), but on this occasion I’m going for the bigger prices…
Albot is a 5/2 (3.50) outsider to win the match and considering the circumstances this week, and the fact that he’s beaten Isner once already this season, that looks a decent enough price to me.
Seven of the last 10 sets that Isner has played (all on clay) have gone to a tiebreak. A ‘Tiebreak in the Match’ is just 4/7 (1.57) but the individual set prices offer greater returns…
Four of Isner’s last 5 opening sets have been settled by the 7-6 score, and that option can be backed at around 2/1 (3.00). Some bookies call this the ‘First Set Score’ market and others call it ‘First Set Tiebreak.’ What we’re looking for is either player to take the opener, 7-6.
ATP Lyon – Open Parc Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes Lyon
Radu Albot v John Isner
Match scheduled 11.30am+
BET: Radu Albot to beat John Isner @ 5/2
BOOKIES: 5/2 (3.50) Bet365, Betway, BetVictor, 12/5 (3.40) William Hill, Boylesports
Latest odds here
BET: First Set Score: 7-6 @ 21/10
BOOKIES: 21/10 (3.10) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 7/4 (2.75) Bet365, Betway
Latest odds here
I’ll be back as the weekend approaches with full details of our plan of action for the French Open. Not long to go now. Get set for a fun fortnight…
Enjoy the tennis…
P.S
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Best wishes,
Tom Wilson