Tennis Betting Advice - May 2018

Big John at 50/1 – play starts 11am…

Wednesday 9th May 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Madrid Masters – play starts 11am…
  • Stephens and Edmund stand out…
  • Big John at 50/1…

Pablo Carreno Busta was well beaten yesterday, with Borna Coric putting in a great performance. I have no real complaints there – we were with the underdog, and underdogs don’t always win…

However, as long-time Ones to Watch followers know well, we keep going with the outsiders and big prices because they prove profitable for us in the long run – and when the wins come, they come very good.

We’re straight back into business today, with three players catching my eye at this week’s big ‘Masters’ event in Madrid – all priced as the underdogs…

Stephens and Edmund stand out today…

First up we go to the match markets. In the women’s I like Sloane Stephens to beat recent WTA Stuttgart champion Karolina Pliskova (12.30pm+). Stephens can be a tricky player to catch right but as she showed when winning the US Open for us last year, when she’s on her game, she’s really on it.

Sloane isn’t usually associated with the clay but she’s started well this week with two strong 2-0 wins over clay court players. Also, she’s never lost a set against Pliskova in two previous meetings. The American can return & defend smartly and absorb the Czech’s big serve and big shots – turning defence into attack…

WTA Madrid – Mutua Madrid Open

Match Winner:

BET: Sloane Stephens to beat Karolina Pliskova @ Evens
BOOKIES: Evens (2.00) Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet 
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

In the men’s event, Kyle Edmund v Novak Djokovic is one of those matches where I feel I might be kicking myself after if I don’t mention it…

Novak beat the Brit 6-4, 7-6 when they last met – a narrow score-line – and that was over a year ago. Since then, Edmund has improved, reaching a first Grand Slam semi final. And Djokovic has had what is by his world-class standards a big slump – out injured for much of the time since, and failing to win more than two matches in a row on tour since January this year.

As I said in our French Open 2018 – Ones to Watch report this week, Edmund has the look to me of a young man who believes he can beat anyone. He should see today’s match as a big opportunity.

ATP Madrid – Mutua Madrid Open

Match Winner:

BET: Kyle Edmund to beat Novak Djokovic @ 13/5
BOOKIES: 13/5 (3.60) BetVictor, NetBet, 10Bet, 5/2 (3.50) Bet365, Betway, SunBets 
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

Big John at 50/1…

Last but not least, we look to the Outright Winner markets for the first time this week, and John Isner at a big looking 50/1 or 40/1 Each Way looks every inch a nice outsider bet for the men’s Madrid title this week. And I’m right to say every inch, as big John stands 6’10” tall…

Isner has proved that he’s got more than just a big serve, playing the best tennis of his career recently to win the Miami Masters in March – his biggest ever tournament win.

The usual setting for an Isner bet would be on faster courts at home in the States (11 of his 13 ATP titles have come in the USA). But with the men’s game looking the way it is, anyone can beat anyone here – with the key being that Isner is in the bottom half of the Madrid draw, therefore avoiding the World No.1, tournament favourite and clay court winning machine that is Rafa Nadal.

While Isner has never had a truly great run at a Grand Slam, he looks to have ‘found his level’ in the Masters events in recent years (which are one tier down from the Slams). With an impressive Masters record that includes the 2016 Paris final, 2017 Rome semi final (clay), 2017 Cincinnati semi final, 2017 Paris semi final and then winning Miami this season. Those Rome & Paris results show John can deliver outside of his home nation, too.

With Nadal a huge presence in the top side of the draw, it makes sense to go for a big price Each Way in the bottom half…

ATP Madrid – Mutua Madrid Open

Outright Winner:

BET: John Isner @ 50/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 50/1 (51.00) NetBet, 10Bet, 40/1 (41.00) Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Skybet 
STAKE: 0.5 pt – Each Way
Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/3rd odds 1-2 places

I’ll be back on Thursday with the latest from Madrid.

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch