Tennis Betting Advice - May 2018

French Open: Bets of the Day – including a 50/1 outsider…

Monday 28th May 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • French Open Day 2 – play starts 10am…
  • Match Winner picks at 5/1+…
  • 2/1 for another Tiebreak…
  • Looking for the upsets…
  • 50/1 outsider on the list…

French Open – Bets of the Day

Good morning and welcome to Day 2 of your French Open 2018 coverage…

Play starts from 10am UK time.

8.5 out of 10…

We weren’t far off a 5/1 winner on Day 1 with 8 of the 10 players in our Match Winner accumulator winning, and Pauline Parmentier 3-1 up in the final set before darkness stopped play (concludes today). The culprit – of all people – was Venus Williams, who fell 2-0 in her 1st Round match.

Our 14/1 and 12/1 Outright Winner pick Petra Kvitova starts her campaign today. Kvitova’s price has dropped a bit already after defending French Open champion Jelena Ostapenko suffered the big ‘shock’ defeat on Day 1. Kvitova is now around 10/1 in general.

Match Winner picks at 5/1+…

We’re looking for a couple of upsets at underdog prices today – see below. But with 50+ matches on Monday’s 1st Round schedule there is also plenty of scope for us to put together another match acca and look at the other markets, too.

Here are 10 players I like to all win today. The 10-fold pays 5/1+.

DOMINIC THIEM to beat Ilya Ivashka
DIEGO SCHWARTZMAN to beat Calvin Hemery
ROBERTO BAUTISTA-AGUT to beat Denis Istomin
STAFANOS TSITSIPAS to beat Carlos Taberner

ANASTASIJA SEVASTOVA to beat Mariana Duque Marino
MARIA SAKKARI to beat Mandy Minella
MAGDALENA RYBARIKOVA to beat Luksika Kumkhum
KIRSTEN FLIPKENS to beat Tatjana Maria
DONNA VEKIC to beat Kateryna Bondarenko
CAMILA GIORGI to beat Grace Min

Match Winner – Acca:

BET: 10-fold on the players above to all win @ 5/1+
BOOKIES: 11/2 (6.50) William Hill, 5/1+ (6.00+) Betway, Bet365, BetVictor, 10Bet, NetBet
Latest odds here

2/1 for another Tiebreak…

We had a First Set Tiebreak winner at odds of around 2/1 on John Isner in Lyon last week, and the big-serving American looks another decent pick for that bet at the same price today.

Six of the last 7 opening sets in Isner matches – all on clay – have been settled by the tiebreak 7-6 score.

Opponent and fellow American Noah Rubin can also be expected to hold his own on the scoreboard here, with each of his last 3 first sets ending 7-6 in Geneva last week, and 5 of his 10 sets played for the week overall needing a tiebreak.

As I mentioned last week, some bookies call this the ‘First Set Score’ market and others call it ‘First Set Tiebreak.’ What we’re looking for is either player to take the opener, 7-6.

John Isner v Noah Rubin:

BET: First Set Score: 7-6 @ 2/1
BOOKIES: 2/1 (3.00) William Hill, 7/4 (2.75) Skybet, 6/4 (2.50) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Latest odds here

Looking for the upsets…

With reigning champ Ostapenko going out to a 7/1 match outsider yesterday the upsets are underway already, and we’ll be aiming to find a few of them ourselves in the days to come.

Two matches get the antenna twitching for potential upsets today…

In the Men’s, former French Open winner Stan Wawrinka is far from his best this season after having knee surgery last year. He hasn’t played much so far in 2018 and has lost 4 of his last 5 matches including 2 out of 3 on the clay.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez is a tricky 1st Round opponent for Stan; the Spaniard is an experienced clay-courter and has a 3-1 head-to-head record v Wawrinka on clay – including knocking him out of the French Open in 2014.

Match Winner:

BET: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Stan Wawrinka @ 6/5 
BOOKIES: 6/5 (2.20) Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, Betway, BetVictor, SunBets
Latest odds here

Onto another player we followed last week and Danielle Collins could spring a surprise against Australian Open winner Caroline Wozniacki today…

Neither player is at their best on clay but the pressure will all be on Wozniacki as the favourite here. The Dane has managed two quarter finals in 10 attempts at Roland Garros, going out in the 1st or 2nd Round on three of her last four visits.

Collins will need to be aggressive but she can sniff the chance of an upset and could frustrate the higher-ranked and better-known opponent here. The American is up to a career-high No.44 in the world and is having a breakthrough season on the tour…

Match Winner:

BET: Danielle Collins to beat Caroline Wozniacki @ 3/1
BOOKIES: 3/1 (4.00) Bet365, Betway, 11/4 (3.75) Boylesports, SunBets, NetBet, 10Bet
Latest odds here

50/1 outsider on the list…

Last but not least on what is a busy day for us (the opening Mondays of Grand Slams always are), one of the players from our pre-tournament French Open 2018 – Ones to Watch list is worthy of a specific mention today…

Elise Mertens is in the top half of the draw where 6/1 tournament favourite Simona Halep is a potential Last 16 opponent. Mertens is on an 11-match winning run on clay and is having a great season, having made the semi finals at the Australian Open and won three titles already in 2018.

The 22-year-old Belgian lost to Halep in Madrid recently but if they meet on the big stage here it could be different with all the expectation on the World No.1 to finally come through and win a Grand Slam title.

At the prices, Mertens is my idea of the best priced outsider in the top half of the Women’s draw.

Outright Winner – Women’s:

BET: Elise Mertens @ 50/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 50/1 (51.00) William Hill, Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 
Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

In summary…

Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):

10-fold Match Winner acca @ 5/1+

Isner v Rubin – First Set Score: 7-6 @ 2/1

Garcia-Lopez to beat Wawrinka @ 6/5

Collins to beat Wozniacki @ 3/1

Women’s Outright Winner – Mertens @ 50/1 Each Way

  • Take a look at the Tennis Betting Rules page on our website to read about why I recommend certain bookies over others
  • Unless otherwise stated in your Ones to Watch emails, all Outright Winner picks are treated as 1 point Each Way stakes and all Match picks are treated as 1 point

See you at 8am tomorrow with your French Open Bets of the Day for Tuesday.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch