Tennis Betting Advice - May 2018

Picks for Prague – including a 33/1 shot…

Tuesday 1st May 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • WTA Prague – play starts 10am...
  • Barthel value at 33/1…
  • Giorgi to beat Strycova…

Picks for Prague…

I spent a frustrating Monday night at my desk, waiting for the bookies to catch up with the tennis news and price up the Outright Winner market for the WTA Prague event…

Czech Republic star Karolina Pliskova was the top seed and favourite, but having won the WTA Stuttgart final on Sunday, she’s pulled out here citing a right thigh injury.

The bookies have been slow to re-do their Outright prices for Prague, with at the time of writing (just after midnight) some still showing Pliskova at the top of the list – and others not having the market back up at all.

A couple of bookies are up though and by the time you read this a few more should be, too…

Matters are complicated further by the fact that Karolina Pliskova’s (lower ranked) twin sister, Kristyna Pliskova, is in the draw. And while Karolina was a winner here in the Czech capital in 2015, her less heralded identical twin actually made the Prague final last year, finishing runner-up. Kristyna was 33/1 last year; this week she’s around 10/1 with the bookies that have taken into account her World No.6 sister’s withdrawal.

  • For future reference… apart from their tattoos (and rankings), the 6ft tall, big serving Pliskova sisters are distinguishable from one another by one key playing feature – Karolina is right-handed and Kristyna is left-handed

The top of the betting is now bossed by three players all in the bottom half of the draw – Petra Kvitova (around 3/1), Daria Kastakina (around 5/1) and Katerina Siniakova (around 10/1).

I like all three of those players in general and Kasatkina & Siniakova have both given us tournament profits at nice prices in recent times. However they don’t represent the value here.

Barthel value at 33/1…

In the top half – where remember original favourite Karolina Pliskova has now vacated the draw (and where her sister Kristyna remains) – a big priced player could come through. And from here it could pay to keep things simple and go for the reigning Prague champion, Mona Barthel at what is a big-looking 33/1

Barthel at 33/1 (or around 20/1 as the price may generally settle at come Tuesday morning) is preferable on price to Kristyna Pliskova who is half the odds or less.

The German is hit or miss in terms of reliability and playing her A-game, often within the same match, but that can be said of so many players on the WTA Tour. Barthel hits the ball true, and three of her four WTA final appearances in the last four years have come on clay – winning the trophy in Bastad and as well as here in Prague.

With the top three in the betting all in the opposite side of the draw, and the No.1 seed already withdrawn from the top hop half, Barthel in that top section at 33/1 looks good value to me.

Indeed, the draw may have already gone Mona’s way with her original 1st Round opponent, talented youngster Marketa Vondrousova, also dropping out injured…

Vondrousova has been replaced in the draw by Barthel’s fellow German, Antonia Lottner. World No.66 Barthel is ranked almost 100 places above her compatriot (Lottner is world No.158). If she gets off to a winning start in that match today then Barthel could put together another good run in Prague this week – at a very good price.

WTA Prague – J & T Banka Prague Open

Outright Winner:

BET: Mona Barthel @ 33/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 33/1 (34.00) William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook, 22/1 (23.00) Skybet
STAKE: 0.5 pt – Each Way
Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places
  • Lookout also for the Outright Winner market with Bet365, Boylesports, Paddy Power, NetBet, 10Bet

Giorgi to beat Strycova…

Also in Prague, there’s a Match Winner price that I like on the Tuesday schedule and that’s Camila Giorgi to beat Barbora Strycova as the slight underdog…

We successfully opposed the out-of-form Czech player last week, and this time her Italian opponent Giorgi looks worth siding with.

Strycova made the semi final here last year in front of the home crowd, but her 2018 season is not going anywhere near as well and for me, what’s happening on court right now is the key in this one. Strycova has lost 5 matches in a row; the last 4 were all 1st Round defeats where she failed to win a single set.

Giorgi is at her best on the hard & fast courts, but she won a couple of matches in Prague last time out to make the quarter finals. She can be relied upon to go for winning shots time after time and that attacking strategy could serve her well if Strycova throws in another error-strewn performance today.

The match is scheduled to start from 11.30am UK time.

WTA Prague – J & T Banka Prague Open

Match Winner:

BET: Camila Giorgi to beat Barbora Strycova @ 11/10
BOOKIES: 11/10 (2.10) William Hill, Evens (2.00) BetVictor, Betway
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

There are five tournaments taking place this week. I’ll be back again soon – tomorrow or the next day – with more picks for us. Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch