Tennis Betting Advice - May 2019
French Open: A 500/1 outsider…
Tuesday 28th May 2019
French Open - Bets of the Day
Good morning and welcome to Day Three of your French Open 2019 daily service.
I’ll be in your inbox by 8am every morning. And if you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’ll be on hand via email.
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We were thinking along the right lines yesterday with our ‘five-set’ pick for Radu Albot v Tennys Sandgren. Albot was 1/3 (1.33) to win but we took the much more attractive 5/1 (6.00) for a 3-2 Set Betting score. It ended 3-1, with the crucial moments coming in the first two sets where Albot won both tiebreaks. The match ended 7-6, 7-6, 3-6, 6-1.
On the day there was five matches that went the distance to five sets. So far in the opening two days of the Men’s draw we’ve seen eight go all the way to a fifth…
Three of those have involved Frenchmen coming from behind after losing the first set. Nicolas Mahut and Pierre-Hugues Herbert both came from 0-2 down to win 3-2 (at large in-play prices). Jeremy Chardy and Kyle Edmund complete their match later today, locked at 5-5 in the deciding set in failing light last night.
The French crowd is known for being fickle at times, but they love to get behind the home players when there’s something to cheer for. The Mahut match (a veteran, playing on day one of the brand new Simonne-Mathieu Court, against last year’s semi-finalist Maco Cecchinato) was a great example of that. As was Herbert v Medvedev (Herbert was also an underdog, and got the crowd going with a series of arms-aloft gestures – while Medvedev tried to control his temper).
There are another couple of five-set contenders at big prices today, including a young French player. See below.
With the 1st Round still to be completed, three big names are out of the Women’s draw already. World No.5 Angelique Kerber, No.13 Caroline Wozniacki and No.6 Petra Kvitova are all gone. Those three have all made Grand Slam finals since the start of last year, but injury caught up with them this time. Kerber and Wozniacki lost to match underdogs. Kvitova pulled out on Monday morning without hitting a ball.
We can never be fully aware of what’s going on in the locker room, and I don’t pretend to be. What we do know is that Juan Martin del Potro has a long history of injury issues and in his own words is concentrating on getting back to full fitness ready for Wimbledon and the US Open this summer.
This time last year the popular Argentinean made an emotional run to the French Open semi finals after coming back from wrist surgeries, then went on to make the Wimbledon quarters and the US Open final (runner-up).
This summer Del Potro is attempting yet another comeback, this time from a knee injury. With his Roland Garros record showing two semi finals and a quarter final from his last five visits, if it wasn’t for the fitness question mark then he’d be going down as an outside bet at 66/1 & 50/1.
As I said yesterday, the dominance of Rafael Nadal & Novak Djokovic means we have to tread carefully in the Men’s Outright Winner market. And if we are getting involved, then I want to do so at a truly massive price where the potential upside outweighs any question marks…
A 500/1 outsider…
The player that gets my attention is Lucas Pouille.
This is an outsider pick if ever there was one, with the Frenchman showing little form in recent weeks and never having got past the 3rd Round here in his home Grand Slam.
The 25-year-old has shown a couple of glimpses of what he can do. Winning the decisive rubber for France in the 2017 Davis Cup final was a big deal. That was on home soil in front of raucous support and as we’ve discussed above, the French crowd can play a big part this fortnight, too.
More recently, Pouille had his best ever Grand Slam last time out, reaching the Australian Open semi finals in his first Major working with new coach Amelie Mauresmo.
That big breakthrough was followed by a slump in form (as often happens). But a low-key tournament win at a lower-tier ATP Challenger event on clay in Bordeaux at the start of May is a good sign. For an active player that’s been as high as No.10 in the world to drop down to enter a Challenger shows he’s serious about getting his form back. David Goffin and Kei Nishikori have made similar moves in the past.
Pouille is in the 2nd Quarter of the draw here, meaning he avoids the likes of Nadal and Roger Federer in his half. Djokovic is the top man in the top half (Q1). Pouille’s section includes Karen Khachanov (200/1, struggling for form), Del Potro (66/1, fitness levels unknown) and Dominic Thiem (8/1, wasn’t at his best at all in the 1st Round).
Intriguingly, Pouille has a 2-0 career record v Thiem including a win on clay. And the Frenchman also came out on top in his only previous meeting with Del Potro.
At a massive price, Pouille is my outsider ‘one to watch’ pick in the Men’s draw. Boylesports are offering 500/1 with 1/3rd the odds Each Way. Elsewhere you can get 300/1 and 200/1 with the standard 1/2 odds place terms.
The Tuesday schedule has some entertaining matches in store, such as Victoria Azarenka v Jelena Ostapenko, Fabio Fognini v Andreas Seppi, Fernando Verdasco v Dan Evans, Taro Daniel v Gael Monfils as well as a first look at World No.1 Naomi Osaka and defending 2018 French Open champion & 2019 favourite Simona Halep.
Sticking with the big prices and taking the outsider view, two Men’s matches catch the eye as potential five-setters today. And in both cases, going for the biggest possible price by backing the match underdog for the 3-2 Set Betting score is the option that appeals…
At odds of 9/1, 23-year-old French player Antoine Hoang can utilise home support and spring a surprise on Damir Dzumhur. The Bosnian has a habit of long matches, including his last two matches at the French Open going to five sets last year – along with three of his last four ATP Tour matches going to a decider this season.
Britain’s Dan Evans has been playing some inspired stuff since coming back from a ban, and looks a man on a mission in the big matches. Experienced opponent Fernando Verdasco is the firm match favourite here but is no stranger to an upset or an epic match – in fact, he’s known for it…
Verdasco’s last seven trips to Roland Garros have all seen him feature in a five-set match, with five of those seven matches coming in the opening two rounds. The Spaniard is won 3 lost 4 in those seven matches. Evans is 10/1+ to win a 3-2 thriller.
Men’s Outright Winner:
BET: Lucas Pouille @ 500/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 500/1 Boylesports, 300/1 Skybet, 200/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Antoine Hoang v Damir Dzumhur:
BET: Set Betting – Hoang to win 3-2 @ 9/1
BOOKIES: 9/1 Marathonbet, 888 Sport, Unibet, 8/1 & 7/1 in general
Fernando Verdasco v Dan Evans:
BET: Set Betting – Evans to win 3-2 @ 12/1
BOOKIES: 12/1 888 Sport, Unibet, 10/1 Skybet, William Hill
The Rollover – bet No.1…
Alongside our daily & tournament picks, we’ll be looked to profit from the French Open with our Rollover bet…
The aim is to roll a £10 stake over with match winner selections, cashing-out when we get to the £100 mark.
After last week’s successful 8-match Rollover run (cashed out at £117), we fell at the second hurdle in this week’s new sequence. We’re getting straight back on the horse today with our £10 starting stake going on a Double…
Bautista-Agut has a 6-0 career head-to-head v Johnson, and is the superior player on clay.
Puig made a quarter final on clay last week, while Flipkens is on a 6-match losing streak.
I’ll be back tomorrow at 8am with your Bets of the Day for Wednesday, when the 2nd Round will be getting underway.
Enjoy the tennis…