Tennis Betting Advice - May 2019

WTA Madrid – 16/1 and 25/1 picks…

Sunday 5th May 2019

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • WTA Madrid…
  • One to Watch at 16/1 and 25/1…
  • Play starts 10am…

All eyes on Madrid this week…

Our Rollover run continued on Saturday with Kiki Bertens beating Katerina Siniakova, 6-3, 6-2 in the 1st Round in Madrid. Our £10 starting stake is now up to £36.07. We’ll have Rollover bet No.6 in the next day or two.

There’s a big tournament taking place throughout this week with the men & women both in Spain for the WTA & ATP Madrid events. This a Premier Mandatory event for women and Masters 1000 for men – the highest tournament category apart from the four Grand Slams.

The men’s event doesn’t really get going until Monday, but the women started on Saturday and there’s a busy schedule of matches on Sunday with play starting from 10am.

Ones to Watch at 16/1 and 25/1...

There is plenty of encouragement for us to look beyond the shortest prices at the top of this week’s Outright Winner list…

The last six Premier Mandatory tournaments have produced seven finalists at odds of 50/1+. And 11 of the 12 finalists went off at 16/1 and bigger.

In the last three years WTA Madrid has seen runners-up at odds of 50/1 (Kiki Bertens 2018), 14/1 (Kristina Mladenovic 2017) and 25/1 (Dominika Cibulkova 2016).

Two-time Madrid winner Simona Halep is in the top half of the 2019 draw, with 2018 & 2015 champion Petra Kvitova in the bottom half. Those two are ranked No.3 and No.2 in the world respectively, and are joint-favourites at 6/1 each.

World No.1 Naomi Osaka is 12/1. She’s yet to win a clay-court title. Last year’s runner-up Bertens (world No.7) is also 12/1, having been 50/1 here 12 months ago. Osaka is in the top half with Halep. Bertens is in the bottom half with Kvitova, with the seedings putting last year’s finalists on a quarter final collision course.

For bigger prices, the two I like – for very different reasons – are Karolina Pliskova at 16/1 and Sloane Stephens at 25/1…

The big-serving, flat-hitting Karolina Pliskova is rightly best known as a hard-court player. But the Czech has won 131 matches on clay in her career to date, and last season really showed she can get results on this surface with a tournament win in Stuttgart followed by a semi final run here in Madrid.

Karolina is something of a Ms. Reliable on the tour. From six tournament appearances this season Pliskova’s record reads: 1st Round, Final (Runner-Up), Quarter Final, Quarter Final, Semi Final, Final (Won).

Taking that form line back to the start of September 2018 (US Open), the world No.5 has reached the quarter finals or better in nine of her last 13 tournaments on all surfaces.

One player that we can’t call Ms. Reliable is Sloane Stephens…

Sloane has managed just one quarter final from seven tournament attempts this year. And three from her last 12 going back to the start of the US Open 2018. During that time, she’s failed to win back-to-back matches in eight out of 12 events.

But when Stephens is on song – there’s hardly anyone better…

The American was a 40/1 US Open winner for us in 2017. Since making the bigtime in New York, things have been up and down to say the least. But throw in a 66/1 Premier Mandatory win at Miami last year and a 50/1 runner-up showing at the French Open, and you can see that big prices should never really put us off.

Four of Sloane’s six title wins have come in the USA. But that French Open run in Paris shows she can play in Europe. And Stephens is the kind of player who can surprise you.

Sloane recently announced that she is engaged to be married. And quickly followed that up with the news that she has a new coach…

This week in Madrid will be the first tournament since all that happened. It could be a distraction. It could take time to adjust. Or, Stephens could pull some of her inspired performances out of the bag and fire her way into the final. At a good Each Way price, I’m happy to chance on the latter.

Pliskova is in the top half of the Madrid draw this week, with Stephens in the opposite side.

Play continues from 10am Sunday.

Today’s Ones to Watch picks:

WTA Madrid – Mutua Madrid Open

Outright Winner:

BET: Karolina Pliskova @ 16/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 16/1 (17.00) William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports

BET: Sloane Stephens @ 25/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 25/1 (26.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 22/1 (23.00) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

I’ll be back in the week with more from Madrid.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch