Tennis Betting Advice - May 2020

Two women's picks in Atlanta this evening...

Monday 18th May 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Exo-Tennis, USA…
  • Go against the odds today…
  • Play starts 7pm… 

King crowned in Atlanta…

We latched onto Kevin King’s form in the middle of what turned out to be a dominant winning streak. The American landed our Saturday afternoon pick, beating Donald Young by a comprehensive 6-2, 6-1 score-line.

It was straight-sets victories all the way for King. He ended up winning all eight of his matches at the first Exo-Tennis event in Atlanta, Georgia – without dropping a single set.

The 29-year-old took the honours in that competition. The other player we’d been following, local lad Trent Bryde, finished 2nd. The men return to those Atlanta courts for another four-day session starting from this Friday.

  • So far in the new, non-tour events we’ve had 6 out of 9 successful match picks, for a modest but satisfactory 15% ROI

Women’s event starts today…

Today the women get underway for their first showing at that Exo-Tennis event in Atlanta, Georgia

It’s the same format as the men, with eight competitors, playing each other in a round-robin stage, before progressing to playoff matches to decide the final standing order on the last day.

  • Matches are played in ‘normal’ sets, except there is no Advantage played at 40-40, so Deuce becomes ‘game point.’ If a match is levelled at one set all, the third set takes the form of a Champions Tiebreak, which is first-to-10-points (winning by 2)

The women’s Exo-Tennis tournament runs from today until Thursday. The standout player here is Taylor Townsend, who had a solid year on tour in 2019, including a run to the 4th round of the US Open, where she pushed eventual champion Bianca Andreescu all the way to three sets.

It looks like we’ll have a hard time getting any value on Taylor winning her matches here. Townsend is priced up as short as 1/50 (1.02) with Bet365 to win her opening match this afternoon, against South Africa’s Katie Poluta.

Go against the odds this evening…

Following ‘local’ players has been a decent tactic for us so far at these new events being held in the States. At the inaugural UTR Pro Match Series earlier this month, Florida resident Reilly Opelka was crowned overall winner, and we were on him for a couple of his match wins that weekend.

Last week Kevin King and Trent Bryde finished in the top two spots at Atlanta, and both are Georgia state natives.

Two women worth following on the underdog side of the prices on the Monday schedule in Atlanta are Grace Min and Paige Hourigan…

Grace Min is a former US Open Girl’s champion (2011), and while the now-26-year-old has never reached those heights in her Senior career on the main WTA Tour, Grace has been inside the Top 100 and that puts her firmly in the top half of the competitors at this week’s event.

Min is from Atlanta, Georgia, and looks a fair price at around Evens (2.00) against the inconsistent Sachia Vickery this evening. Vickery has court time on her side, having competed at a ‘US Pro Tennis Series’ event last week. But the Florida player lost four of her six matches, against less than formidable opposition.

What’s more, the career head-to-head is in Min’s favour here, 2-1. All three encounters have come in the USA, and Grace has won the last two, albeit back in 2016 & 2017.

In a women’s match like this, backing the player on the larger side of the odds looks the best move.

Likewise, for the match due on court immediately before that one, with New Zealand’s Paige Hourigan the against-the-odds pick at around 13/8 (2.63). Hourigan is a college player from Georgia Tech university, so she should be more than okay with the playing conditions in these parts.

With a fancy website, and PR on her side – including training with Venus William last year – 23-year-old Hourigan looks to have a ‘set-up’ geared to helping her rise higher in the game. Tonight’s opponent is 22-year-old American, Ellie Halbauer. The USA player is higher ranked, but with little form to her name, and as such, little to justify 4/9 (1.44) favouritism here in my opinion.

Matches like these can be a minefield for following favourites; youth & low rankings can make one player look worse on paper than they potentially are. Going with the underdog prices is my take today.

Exo-Tennis Series, USA – Women’s:

  • Grace Min to beat Sachia Vickery is 21/10 (2.05) with Boylesports, BetVictor, Evens (2.00) with Bet365, William Hill, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet
  • Paige Hourigan to beat Elizabeth Halbauer is 9/5 (2.80) with BetVictor, 13/8 (2.63) with Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, 8/5 (2.60) Betway, NetBet, 10Bet

Those matches start from 7pm UK time. You can watch live on the Bet365 website or by following the link on the Exo-Tennis website.

I’ll be back in throughout the week with continued coverage of this week’s matches and prices.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch