Tennis Betting Advice - May 2021

Ones to Watch this week – including an 80/1 Frenchman… 

Monday 17th May 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • ATP Lyon – French contenders…
  • WTA Belgrade – side with youth in Serbia…
  • Ones to Watch this week – at 20/1, 25/1, 66/1, and 80/1…

So far in the 2021 clay-court season, we’ve had 100/1 and 200/1 picks reach the semi finals. We’re getting close, then…

At the ATP 1000 event in Monte Carlo, Casper Ruud was a 100/1 Ones to Watch selection (semi final). This week at the smaller ATP 250 tournament in Geneva, the young Norwegian goes off as the favourite, at just 3/1. Roger Federer is 9/2 (5.5) to delight the Swiss fans on his return to action.

Last time we backed Paulo Badosa, it was at 200/1 at the WTA 1000 in Madrid – and she also made the semis. This time, the Spaniard is also just 3/1 at best, for the 250-grade competition in Belgrade.

As ever, I have bigger prices than 3/1 in my sights…

There are four clay tournaments this week, with just a fortnight to go until the French Open. The men are in Lyon and Geneva. The women are in Parma and Belgrade.

The action starts from 10.30am in Lyon, and 11am in Belgrade, and those are where we’re headed this morning…

ATP Lyon – French contenders…

A familiar ATP angle for us here: back the French to do well in France…

Since this tournament moved to clay in 2017, there’s been a Frenchman in the final every time it’s been played. In the previous incarnation of this stop on the tour, when the Lyon event was held on hard courts, the last five had all also seen French players reach the final.

Home players in the draw here include the talented but unreliable Gael Monfils (40/1), the upcoming 22-year-old Ugo Humbert (66/1), and his almost-namesake Pierre-Hugues Herbert (66/1)…

Along with veterans Gilles Simon, Richard Gasquet, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, available at top prices of 80/1, 100/1, and 300/1, respectively.

The 24-year-old Benjamin Bonzi, who is up to a career-best of no.115 in the world this season, at 250/1. And our 33/1 quarter-finalist on clay in Estoril last month, the 22-year-old Corentin Moutet (80/1).

With the draw and prices in mind, the two I like are Ugo Humbert at 66/1, and Corentin Moutet at 80/1

The former has a decent-looking draw in the first two rounds, and the chance to go further. The latter has a tough draw, but the 80/1 price compensates for that, and Moutet has the talent and spark to pull off a surprise or two. The bookies make today’s clash between Moutet and Cameron Norrie a 50-50 affair. I’m on the side of the home player.

WTA Belgrade – side with youth in Serbia…

This Belgrade event is a new stop-off on the WTA Tour. A key part of our Ones to Watch approach is to back young players making their first significant moves on the Senior tour. This draw features two 2019 Junior Grand Slam champions – French Open Girls winner Leylah Fernandez, and US Open Girls winner Maria Camila Osorio Serrano

Both have already lifted WTA 250 titles this season, at odds of 9/1 and 25/1, respectively.

We have Fernandez in the book as a 100/1+ early-bird pick for the French Open. This week the left-hander looks very backable at 25/1. A slight 11/10 (2.1) underdog to beat the experienced but injury-prone Perlona Hercog this morning, if the 18-year-old Canadian wins that 1st round match, her Outright price will drop considerably.

Osorio Serrano won on clay in Bogota last month, then backed that up with a semi-final run the very next week in Charleston. After that tiring fortnight, the 19-year-old Colombian had a three-week gap, and should be ready to mount another challenge this week. Over the weekend, the feisty teenager came through the qualifying rounds in Belgrade with two match wins. That can set Maria up well for a run in the main draw here.

Ones to Watch

ATP Lyon - Open Parc Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes Lyon

Match Winner:

  • Corentin Moutet to beat Cameron Norrie is Evens (2.0) with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports

Outright Winner – Each Way:

  • Corentin Moutet is 80/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet
  • Ugo Humbert is 66/1 with Bet365, Betway, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

WTA Belgrade – Serbia Ladies Open

Match Winner:

  • Leylah Fernandez to beat Polona Hercog is 11/10 (2.1) with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Betway

Outright Winner – Each Way:

  • Leylah Fernandez is 25/1 with Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Betway, Ladbrokes, Coral
  • Maria Camila Osorio Serrano is 20/1 with Bet365, Skybet, Betway

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Play starts from 10.30 in Lyon, and 11am in Belgrade (UK time). Bookies take down their Outright Winner markets during the day’s matches.

I’ll be back in touch over the next few days, with more from this week’s tournaments.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch