Tennis Betting Advice - May 2022
Sunday Night Club – flip the formbook at 50/1…
Sunday 8th May 2022
Good evening. The latest WTA 1000 event kicks off at 10am on Monday – the Rome Masters on clay. Let’s use this Sunday-night slot to bag some early prices…
WTA Rome – Ones to Watch: Flip the formbook…
KAROLINA PLISKOVA has made the final three years running in Rome. The former world no.1 has only won two out of five matches on clay so far this season. I’m on record as saying the Czech is hard to trust at times. However, last year Karolina sprung a surprise here – on the odds at least – finishing runner-up to French Open champion, Iga Swiatek… from a tournament starting price of 40/1. Compare that eye-catching price to just 12 months earlier, when Pliskova was runner-up again – having gone off in the Outright Winner market at just 12/1. In 2019, the big-serving right-hander won this WTA Rome title at 20/1.
With all that to mind, odds of 50/1 could prove too big this week, should Pliskova rediscover her form and get back in the winning groove. That giant price certainly helps compensate for some of the trust issues I’ve had with Karolina. And to be fair, let’s not forget, back in 2016, Pliskova was a 33/1 Each Way runner-up for us at the US Open – a New York bet that I know many of you have fond memories of.
In the 2nd round here, the 30-year-old Pliskova could face our Madrid semi-finalist from last week, Jil Belen Teichmann. The 24-year-old Swiss is 40/1 in the day-one betting. We got on Jil at 28/1 after she’d won two matches in Madrid; although before a ball had been hit at that WTA 1000 event, Teichmann was as big as 300/1. So, in some respects, a large chunk of the ante-post value has gone on Jil, it would seem. And as we’ve noted before, she can run in and out of form. Let’s take the 50/1 for three-time Rome finalist Pliskova, then reassess before that 2nd-round encounter, should it transpire.
Sitting in the bottom half of the draw, and therefore avoiding world no.1 Swiatek who has been in red-hot form, and is no better than 7/4 (2.75) to win here. Pliskova at 50s is one that might just buck the 2022 stats.
That ‘in and out of form’ statement can be said of large swathes of the current WTA Tour, to be honest. And there’s arguably no-one it applies better to right now than ARYNA SABALENKA. The Belarusian made the final on clay in Stuttgart last month, only to then crash out in the 1st round in Madrid. In 10 tournaments this season, world no.4 Sabalenka has fallen at the first hurdle on five occasions. That 50% strike-rate makes you wonder how she’s going to turn-up in any given event right now. And a career match win-loss record in Rome that reads won 2 lost 4 (and one of those wins was in the qualifying rounds back in 2018), hardly does much to inspire confidence. However…
As with Pliskova, Sabalenka has the sheer ball-striking power to make a mockery of current Outright prices of 25/1 (Boylesports) and 22/1 (general). Yes, she’s had her serve and reliability issues this year. But those prices flash before my eyes a bit here; the thinking being that if we take her on ability & potential rather than what’s in the immediate formbook, then what is a fair-looking draw through the early rounds could see Sabalenka roll into some form this week.
Another player that I’ve got a feeling for to come good soon on clay this season is ANETT KONTAVEIT. Like Sabalenka, the world no.6 has landed in the top half of the draw, where the menacing Swiatek looms as the overall favourite. Just a couple of months back, when she was cleaning up on hard courts, odds of 33/1 and 28/1 would have been gloriously generous for Kontaveit. When she got to the final at the WTA 1000 event in Doha (runner-up to Swiatek), Anett went off that week at just 7/1.
And unlike Sabalenka, Kontaveit has some Rome form to point to. Semi-finalist in 2018. And quarter-finalist in 2017, in a year where she came through qualifying, winning a total of five consecutive matches, before falling to the eventual runner-up, Simona Halep. Anyone who follows the women’s game will tell you that Kontaveit is a much better player now than she was then.
Granted, taking on Swiatek in this section of the draw is a bold move. But we’ve landed plenty of finalists and winners at 28/1 and the like before – and they most certainly don’t come by being timid, or running frightened of the top seeds.
To kick us off in Rome, I’ll take these three established players at bigger-than-usual prices…
Pliskova feels like a bit of a ‘wild card’ roll here – and 50/1 is more than okay in that department. While in the last year or so, Kontaveit has got very close to breaking into the very top echelons of the women’s game. Put simply, odds of 28/1 are bigger than what we’re used to seeing for her these days – and could prove value. Ditto for Sabalenka at 22/1.
That trio will do nicely to kick us off in Rome. Three outsiders in the betting, who could make their day-one prices look very nice indeed, should this be the event in which they click back into form.
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Ones to Watch picks:
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
WTA Rome – Internazionali BNL dI’Italia
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Play starts at 10am, when bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets for the day.
All the matches are being shown live on Amazon Prime Video.
I’ll be back during the week with more from Rome.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson