Tennis Betting Advice - May 2022
French Open alert: 900/1 is too big...
Friday 20th May 2022
Our French Open daily email service starts at 8am on Sunday, with the 1st round matches getting underway from 10am that day. However, after the draw was made on Thursday evening, I’ve seen a massive price about a Ones to Watch outsider this morning. So, let’s back her right now, and snap up the best odds that we can…
Camila’s a clay-court specialist…
Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (or Camila Osorio, as many now refer to her) has been on my radar for a while as a budding clay-court specialist, and a ‘one day’ bet to potentially go all the way at the French Open.
The 20-year-old Colombian has already won one WTA title on the red dirt, lifting the trophy in her home country in Bogota last year, at 25/1. Maria followed that up with a return to the Bogota semi finals this season.
In March, Osoria Serrano reached another final – this time on hard courts – at Monterrey, Mexico. She came runner-up, landing us an Each Way 1/2 odds payout from top prices of 30/1 and 28/1. The feisty young right-hander had five match points in that final, coming very close to full glory. This spring, let’s see if she can do it in Europe, and on the biggest stage…
As a rule of thumb that I work to myself, a career match win-loss rate in the region of 70% or higher on any given playing surface is a prompt to get the red pen out, circle the player – and then see what the latest odds are…
We’ve followed that 70%+ rule before; one that comes to mind is when I flagged up teenager Marketa Vondrousova ahead of the French Open in 2019. The Czech went on to reach the final and finish runner-up, from ante-post odds of 40/1. More recently, last month we got on Ons Jabeur as a 40/1 & 33/1 early-bird pick for Wimbledon this summer – pointing to the in-form Tunisian’s 75% match win-rate on grass.
Here's Maria Camila Osorio Serrano’s clay-court record to date:
Granted, the majority of those wins have come on the lower-tier circuit, as is to be expected of a young player making their way up the rankings. Camila Osorio ended 2020 ranked at no.186 in the world, before leaping to no.55 at the end of 2021.
Last season was when the young Colombian started to announce herself on the full WTA Tour, with a very impressive 16-3 match win-loss record (84%) on clay in 2021, across WTA and Grand Slams (including Qualifying rounds).
900/1 is too big…
Making the step up to do it at the business end of a Grand Slam is a different kettle of fish, of course. And Camila Osorio does tend to be a bit injury-prone, too. But there are a few good reasons why I want to get behind her today, on the eve of the French Open 2022:
1) Women’s Grand Slams are wide open at the moment – and have been for some time. Here at Roland Garros, three of the last four finalists have gone off at 100/1+. And the last six French Opens have seen players lifting their first ever Major title.
2) Price. Camila Osorio is available at triple figures. And as I write this morning, an eye-popping 900/1 with Unibet, and 500/1 and 400/1 elsewhere.
3) The French Open 2022 draw. Osorio Serrano is in the bottom half of the draw, and that is definitely where you want to be – avoiding the red-hot favourite Iga Swiatek (can’t meet until the final).
And away from the numbers, the personality of the player forms a big part of my selection process, too. Before Monterrey, I described Maria as a fighter:
Osorio Serrano has several qualities that I like. She’s passionate on court, and crucially, seems to be able to channel that into positive energy more times than not. The 20-year-old has a will-to-win aggression that can’t be taught, and that tenacity has already seen her through several long three-set battles in her young career.
With some jumbo Each Way prices on offer in the Outright Winner market, we should get Maria Camila Osorio Serrano in the book as our first big-odds outsider pick for Paris…
Not all bookies are up as I write. But any of the triple-figure prices listed below would get the nod from me.
Ones to Watch picks:
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
French Open 2022 – Women’s
Note: some bookies, such as Unibet, list Maria Camila Osorio Serrano by a shortened version of her name, eg. Camila Osorio.
I’ll see you on Sunday morning for the start of the French Open. Your Day 1 email will be sent out at 8am.
Enjoy the tennis…