Tennis Betting Advice - May 2022

French Open Day 4: Big John to serve it up at 250/1…

Wednesday 25th May 2022

Welcome to Day 4 of your French Open 2022 daily service. Play starts at 10am…

Good morning. The Paris weather forecast promises good conditions for tennis today. Around 19°C, with not much wind – and no rain.

The 2nd round kicks off from 10am, and we can expect to see some fun matches and exciting encounters.

For example, the Night Session on Court Philippe-Chatrier promises a vocal crowd. With the somewhat unpredictable Frenchman Corentin Moutet fulfilling one of his career ambitions by taking on 13-time Roland Garros champion Rafael Nadal.

That’s one of five matches on the day four schedule in which a French player is pitched as the underdog against a visiting opponent…

In the women’s, we’ll be rooting for our two biggest-priced Outright Winner picks. With Angelique Kerber and Maria Camila Osorio Serrano both in the book for us at triple-figure odds. Both are priced as favourites to win today, against two promising French teenagers:

  • Kerber plays 19-year-old Elsa Jacquemot
  • Camila Osorio faces 19-year-old Diane Parry, who in the 1st round knocked out world no.2 and last year’s French Open champion, Barbora Krejcikova

In the men’s, the home players are also up against it according to the bookies, and the world rankings. Ones to Watch youngster Sebastian Korda is the favourite to beat Richard Gasquet. Nadal is mega-short odds-on to overcome Moutet.

And in the opening match at 10am, the one I’m keen to take a closer look at the betting for is world no.26 John Isner against a French opponent ranked no.210. The American is just 2/7 (1.29) to win, but I’m going beyond the Match Winner market here…

John Isner v Gregoire Barrere

Most of the key stats I could point out for John Isner revolve around his serve. The 6’10” American has been a long-time Ace leader in the men’s game. Last season, he thudded down a tour-best average of 20 aces per match – a record that he’s held four years in a row.

As we’ve discussed on numerous occasions, matches featuring a big server like big John often tend to lead to a set or sets going all the way to the 7-6 score-line, in the shape of a tiebreak:

  • Isner has played 23 matches so far this season, and 11 of them have featured a Tiebreak in the 1st Set
  • 3 of Isner’s last 4 matches at the French Open have seen a 1st Set Tiebreak

Barrere won 75% of his 1st Serve Points in his 1st round match, and that’s a stat that bodes well for a potentially serve-dominated encounter this morning.

Isner’s 1st round victory consisted of a familiar score-line for him: 7-6, 4-6, 7-6, 7-6. The 37-year-old smacked down 27 aces, and won 78% of his 1st Serve Points against another French twenty-something, world no.84 Quentin Halys.

Bet365 have a market for Aces Totals in this match, which is good to see at this early stage of a Grand Slam. In the past, we’ve had to wait until maybe the semi finals to see a range of Aces and Double Faults markets. For this one, Bet365 go 4/9 (1.44) for Isner to break his 20 aces-per-match average. And 6/5 (2.2) for him to serve Over 25 Aces, as he did in the last round.

Not for the first time, the Tiebreak markets are where I’m headed, offering as they do the chance to snag some attractive odds…

Big John to serve it up…

While a Tiebreak in the Match is just 1/3 (1.33) with Skybet. They go 2/1 (3.0) for a Tiebreak in the 1st Set. And 7/2 (4.5) for Isner to win the opening set by that score, 7-6. William Hill are a top-price 4/1 (5.0).

Things get really juicy if you take the prop bet that rolls up three tiebreak wins in a row. With Skybet’s ‘Tiebreak Triumph’ market offering 250/1 for ‘John Isner to win every set 7-6.’

That 250/1 catches my eye this morning. For example, if you took the 7/2 (4.5) odds for Isner to win the 1st Set 7-6, and used that price to create a fictional treble across sets one, two, and three, then the odds would multiply to 90/1 (4.5 x 4.5 x 4.5).

A three-tiebreak match would produce a games total of 39. Bet365 are betting Under/ Over 37.5 Games for Isner v Barrere, with the Over option at 5/6 (1.83). Other firms including Betfred, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook have set the line one game higher, at Over 38.5.

The prices I’m going for are the 4/1 and 7/2 for Isner to win the 1st Set by the 7-6 score. And I don’t want to leave that Skybet 250/1 special on the table. If you can get it, I’d be happy to back that option down to 100/1. I’m aware that a bet that’s only available with one bookmaker might not be everyone’s cup of tea, but we can only work with what the markets give us – and the best I can do here is highlight that at Sky this morning.

Shopping around, other options include the 20/1 with Bet365 for ‘Over 3.5 Total Tiebreaks in the Match.’

Our bottom-half picks…

Finally for today’s update, a reminder that we’re on four players at nice prices in the bottom half of the women’s draw. They are all in action in the 2nd round today:

Maria Camila Osorio Serrano

Bianca Andreescu

Jil Belen Teichmann

Angelique Kerber

----------------------------------------------------

Ones to Watch picks:

French Open 2022 – Men’s 2nd Round

John Isner v Gregoire Barrere

  • 1st Set Correct Score: Isner 7-6 @ 4/1 (5.0) William Hill, 7/2 (4.5) Skybet, Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral, 3/1+ (4.0+) Betway, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, Boylesports
  • ‘Tiebreak Triumph’: Isner to win every set 7-6 @ 250/1 Skybet

----------------------------------------------------

Play starts from 10am.

I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Day 5 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch