Tennis Betting Advice - May 2022
French Open Day 5: Turning the tables at 40/1…
Thursday 26th May 2022
Welcome to Day 5 of your French Open 2022 daily service. Play starts at 10am…
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before…
We’re only in the 2nd round of the tournament, but it’s time for me to roll out two of my most familiar Ones to Watch Grand Slam announcements. If you’re new to the service, then this might pep you up this morning. If you’ve taken a ride on the rollercoaster with me before, then you know the score…
Number one – it only takes one. Bianca Andreescu and Camilo Osorio both dropped out of our Outright Winner book yesterday. But we have three women’s picks backed in the juicy bracket of 50/1 – 150/1 Each Way, live and kicking, and performing well in the opening rounds: Angelique Kerber, Jil Belen Teichmann, and Jessica Pegula. When it comes to having a great tournament in the Outright markets, at the prices we go for – it only takes one to do the business. And across the four Grand Slams, or even the entire season, sometimes that can mean just one big underdog winner, or a couple of Each Way placers, leave us smiling. It’s a long-term game, this. And at the odds we play at, it can be a very exciting one.
Number two – the women’s event is wide open. I must have said this at every Major for the past three of four years, maybe even longer. Yes, the top half of the French Open 2022 draw currently looks like the domain of world no.1, Iga Swiatek, who is odds-on at just 8/13 (1.62) to win a second Roland Garros title. But in the bottom half of the women’s draw, the seeds have been dropping like flies already: five of the world’s Top 10 players have been knocked out. And in total, in this section of the drawsheet, seven seeds have been dismissed within the first two rounds. That big-name carnage can play right into our hands as underdog bettors. Over the next couple of days, I have my eye on one or two more outsiders that could make it into the betting book.
Turning the tables at 40/1…
I’m kicking off today with a proper contrarian pick – a player that until last season, had never won a match at the French Open…
It might sound strange to call the world’s no.2 ranked men’s player an underdog, but that’s how it stands for DANIIL MEDVEDEV here in Paris. I’ve actually backed Daniil at 40/1 here in each of the last two seasons, the thinking being that this guy is capable of better results on clay than the general opinion circulated in the media. In 2020 my picked crashed and burned in the 1st round. But last season, the quirky Russian made a big leap at this event by reaching the quarter finals. If you’ve got a couple of spare minutes this morning, you might want to have a read of what I said 12 months ago, when flagging up Medvedev for the 2021 event (available on the Ones to Watch website, here).
The 2nd seed only played one match on clay in the build-up to Roland Garros this month, his first return to the tour after a hernia operation. It was absolutely no surprise at all that he lost that match in Geneva, against the hugely experienced and talented Richard Gasquet. Age 26, Medvedev very possibly still has the very best years of his trophy-winning career ahead of him. As it stands, he’s already a Grand Slam champion, and has reached the final at three of the last five.
Medvedev won his opening match in a relatively straightforward manner this week, against a recently injured opponent (albeit a clay court specialist), Facundo Bagnis. This morning the task rises a notch, with Laslo Djere also at his best on clay. One of the great things about Daniil is that he doesn’t fear anybody on the tennis court. He’ll fancy his chances of getting past the world no.56 today, even if he doesn’t say it in so many words.
Add in the fact that Medvedev is in the bottom half of this men’s Paris draw, avoiding the big three in the top half that dominate the betting as the tournament favourites – Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and teenager Carlos Alcaraz (who saved a match point yesterday)…
Two Ones to Watch youngsters are in Medvedev’s section of the drawsheet, and they both get plenty of respect from me. But only one of Andrey Rublev and Jannik Sinner can make it through to the semi finals from this 4th Quarter – and that would be new Grand Slam territory for both. In this morning’s Outright Winner market, Rublev is around 28/1, and Sinner more like 25s and 22s. Some of the day-one 40/1 for Medvedev is still around, and he can be backed at 33/1 elsewhere. Considering I’ve got behind Daniil two years running here, I don’t want to miss the year when he comes good at Roland Garros at big odds. He’s my ‘dark horse’ in the men’s field.
Away from the court, I also wonder if the impending Wimbledon situation will provide an extra motivation for Medvedev to prove himself a trophy candidate. As it stands, the Russian is one of the players currently banned from competing at SW19 next month. As we’ve seen in New York before, where he became a bit of a pantomime villain with the US Open crowd – this guy seems to relish a back-to-the-wall situation.
Day 5 match picks – in search of The Perfect 10…
In the women’s 2nd round, I’m looking to pick my way around the banana skins, with the following Match Winner selections. Here are 10 players that I’m picking for the win today:
Paula Badosa to beat Kaja Juvan
Jessica Pegula to beat Anhelina Kalinina
Veronika Kudermetova to beat Alexandra Krunic
Jelena Ostapenko to beat Alize Cornet
Aryna Sabalenka to beat Madison Brengle
Madison Keys to beat Caroline Garcia
Danielle Collins to beat Shelby Rogers
Elena Rybakina to beat Katie Volynets
Karolina Pliskova to beat Leolia Jeanjean
Simona Halep to beat Quiwen Zheng
The acca on those 10 to all win pays a top price 13/1 and 12/1 with the bookies listed below. To find out why I recommend certain bookies for Match Winner bets, click here.
Ones to Watch picks:
French Open 2022
Men’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Women’s 2nd Round – Match Winner:
Play starts from 10am.
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Day 6 email.
Enjoy the tennis…