Tennis Betting Advice - May 2022

French Open Day 6: 100/1 for the ‘Raducanu moment’…

Friday 27th May 2022

Welcome to Day 6 of your French Open 2022 daily service. Play starts at 10am…

This is supposed to be fun…

Maybe it’s the early starts, or the near misses, but I was feeling the tension a bit yesterday. Jessica Pegula took not one, not two, not three or four, or even five… but EIGHT match points to finally see off Anhelina Kalinina. The way I reacted at the end, it was like our pick had reached the final or won the whole thing.

At one stage, our women’s tournament outsider Pegula was up 6-1, 5-1. But her Ukrainan opponent was able to climb back into the match, and take it close in a final set. Our player eventually got over the line, 6-1, 5-7, 6-4. You have to credit the American for holding it together mentally, in the end.

All’s well that ends well, perhaps. But having also needed TEN match points to come through her 1st round match, it does raise an old question about Jessica’s ability to – in sporting terms – ‘finish.’ On the other hand, it’s pretty typical of the WTA tour in general to see a winding, three-set rollercoaster like that. And to make a footballing comparison, then like a striker on a scoring drought – I’d only be really worried if Pegula wasn’t getting in those winning positions in the first place.

What’s more, Pegula v Kalinina was a highly entertaining match. And isn’t that the point? Well, yes, for the neutral sat in the stands or watching at home on TV. Of course, things are a bit different when we have money riding on it. I won’t deny that. But my goal is for the whole Ones to Watch experience to be fun, too. On that front, it certainly helps the enjoyment factor to know that we deal in the biggest and most exciting prices and markets…

We’re on Pegula for the French Open at 66/1 or 50/1. Through to the 3rd round, that price is now down to 40/1 at best, and 33/1 in general.

In the opposite side of the draw, we have 100/1+ pick Angelique Kerber playing today. Along with Jil Belen Teichmann in the book at 75/1, 66/1, or 50/1. Jil is now trading at around 33/1 with the bookmakers that are still offering the standard Each Way terms of 1/2 odds for 1-2 places.

And the Each Way part of an Outright Winner bet is what we’re keen to go after from this bottom half of the women’s draw. Because if world no.1 Iga Swiatek continues to blast everyone off the court in the top half, then it’s going to be a case of looking to primarily profit via the place terms of getting a player to the final at large outsider odds…

Close but no cigar, and other stories…

Swiatek has now won 30 matches in a row. Yesterday’s score-line was typical of the Pole’s form when in full flow – a 6-0, 6-2 thrashing of Alison Riske. It was barely a contest, to be honest. Which is quite incredible to say of a women’s Grand Slam 2nd round encounter.

That score-line was the reverse of the 6-2, 6-0 win that Iga posted in round one against Lesia Tsurenko – a match in which I flagged up the ‘bagel’ 6-0 Correct Score for the 1st Set, at 5/1. Which goes to show we’re in the right ballpark with our betting approach here…

Earlier in the week, I pointed out John Isner as a 7-6 contender in the Set Score markets. He reeled off one tiebreak that day, beating Gregoire Barrere 6-4, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6. A result that jumped over the Total Games line that I’d included in my write-up, but missed out on the big prices for the 1st Set Score 7-6, and the giant 250/1 special for Isner to win each set 7-6.

It would be Sod’s Law then, for Isner to rack up a stack of 7-6 sets in his next match today? Well, only if we didn’t back him…

Going again with Isner…

Isner rained down 27 aces in the 1st round, and then 23 against Barrere. Bet365 are short odds-on for big John to serve 20+ aces again today, with that option at 3/10 (1.3) in their Aces Total markets.

Today’s opponent for the 6’10” American is a six-foot Spaniard, Bernabe Zapata Miralles. He’s higher-ranked than Isner’s last opponent, and having come through qualifying and then the first two rounds of the main draw, the 25-year-old is match sharp here, with five wins in a row under his belt.

Isner is the 1/2 (1.5) favourite to win. His opponent can be more than expected to hold his own in lots of the rallies today, though, and can keep the scoreboard interesting…

After a line of 37.5 and 38.5 Total Games last time out, the bookies have gone a bit higher today, with Bet365’s market offering Over 40.5 Games at 10/11 (1.91).

Isner to win the 1st Set 7-6 is available at 7/2+ (4.5+) again though, and I’m happy to go with that tiebreak-tactic for a second time. And as noted before with these Set Correct Score markets, you might want to keep the 7-6 option in mind for later sets in the match, too – albeit via in-play betting.

  • In his last match, I flagged up Skybet’s ‘Tiebreak Triumph’ market, with Isner to win every set 7-6 @ 250/1. That price was cut down to a skinny 66/1 by the time the match started. Today, Sky have opened up at just 80/1 for that option. Unlike last time, the triple-figure value isn’t there today

Is this France’s ‘Raducanu moment’?

In the Outright Winner markets, the wide-open bottom half of the women’s draw very much remains our key area of interest. There’s serious potential for a big odds (big fun) finalist to emerge here…

Overall, seven of the world’s Top 10 have already been sent packing from the French Open 2022 – and we’re only in the 3rd round. The most amazing thing about that statistic is that it’s not even a surprise. As I emphasised on day one this week:

  • The last 20 Women's Grand Slams have produced 14 different winners
  • The last 6 French Opens have seen players lifting their first ever Major title
  • The last Women's French Opens have seen 8 different champions
  • 3 of the last 4 Women’s French Open finalists have gone off at 100/1+

Add in the fact that January’s Australian Open featured a 100/1 runner-up. Along with the US Open final last September which saw 100/1 Emma Raducanu lift a maiden trophy, and fellow teenager Leylah Fernandez finish runner-up from starting odds as big as 600/1 and 500/1. And the scene is set for another wild result here at Roland Garros 2022…

One 3rd round match today that could produce a title contender from the bottom half of the draw (and remember, Swiatek is safely in the other side), is Belinda Bencic v Leylah Fernandez. Both are former Junior French Open champions, in 2013 and 2019, respectively. The problem is, one will be knocked out today – and we can’t back everyone (!). Bencic is around 20/1 to win a maiden Grand Slam title next weekend. Fernandez is 50/1 and 40/1.

Whereas youngsters on our Ones to Watch in 2022 list such as Amanda Anisimova and Coco Gauff are trading at just 16/1 and 18/1 in general (with a smattering of 20/1+ available for the latter).

However, with all of the above recent history in mind, we should really go after the most exhilarating opportunities here…

I’m only interested in the massive prices today…

Is this France’s ‘Raducanu moment’? Diane Parry has already taken out the world no.2 and 2021 French Open champion, Barbora Krejcikova. As well as our big long-shot pick, Maria Camila Osorio Serrano. This highly-rated young Frenchwoman could be the next teenager to seemingly come from nowhere in terms of the main tour, and spring a surprise at a Major.

Yes, you could point to the fact that Krejcikova was coming back from injury (and has since pulled out of the Doubles, after testing positive for coronavirus). And Camila Osorio had a bad night on serve. But what’s impressed me most about Parry is the way she’s taken care of business on her side of the court…

The 19-year-old world no.97 has looked remarkably calm and assured, attacking brilliantly with some superb forehand power, and a fair bit of dexterity, too. There are definitely shades of Raducanu’s explosive US Open run here. Every now and then, a youngster bursts onto the Grand Slam stage with an exciting no-fear approach. And lately, that seems to be happening quite often in the women’s game.

Parry will need to get past 2018 finalist Sloane Stephens today – a player notorious for being gifted yet unreliable. With the home crowd firmly on her side, I’m willing to take the big 100/1+ tournament odds for the local teenager.

On what looks a day for backing underdogs, the other player I want to follow at huge prices is Martina Trevisan

Having won a maiden WTA title just last week, lifting the trophy in Rabat, Morocco at 14/1. The 28-year-old Italian is up to a new career high of no.59 in the rankings. Martina has won through the opening two rounds in Paris this week without losing a set – reeling off dominant 6-0, 6-2 and 6-3, 6-2 score-lines. The Italian is rocking a seven-match winning streak on clay.

Add in the fact that she reached the French Open quarter finals here in 2020, only stopped by the surging eventual champ Swiatek. And there’s a case to say that Trevisan is being somewhat overlooked here. I certainly haven’t seen her getting many column inches. Martina is priced as the favourite to get past Daria Saville today. Again, tournament odds of 100/1+ are the ones for me.


Ones to Watch picks:

French Open 2022

John Isner v Bernabe Zapata Miralles:

  • 1st Set Correct Score: Isner 7-6 @ 19/5 (4.8) Ladbrokes, Coral, 15/4 (4.75) Bet365, BetVictor, 7/2 (4.5) Skybet, Betfred, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places unless stated):

  • Diane Parry – best option @ 300/1 Win Only with Unibet AND 150/1 To Reach the Final with Bet365. Alternatively, back Parry Each Way @ 100/1+ in general
  • Martina Trevisan @ 150/1 Unibet (1/3 odds Each Way), 125/1 Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 100/1 Bet365, Betfred, William Hill, 888 Sport, BetVictor, Boylesports


Play starts from 10am, although none of our players are due out on court until 11am+, with the Isner match at 1pm or later. Which gives you a little bit more time than usual to place your bets this morning.

I’ll be back again at 8am tomorrow with your Day 7 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch