Tennis Betting Advice - May 2022
French Open Day 7: Gilles is not finished yet…
Saturday 28th May 2022
Welcome to Day 7 of your French Open 2022 daily service….
Good morning. The middle weekend of a Grand Slam is when things start to get serious. The early rounds fade away and the Last 16 gets mapped out. From then on, as we head into week two, players are competing for the quarter finals – and beyond…
Aiming for the bigtime…
You could see how much it means and how much is at stake in yesterday’s women’s match between Belinda Bencic and Leylah Fernandez. The scoreboard swung this way and that, before Fernandez eventually came from behind to win in the final set. Her celebrations matched her competitive spirit, while Bencic looked pretty crestfallen, as another Grand Slam opportunity slipped away.
Jil Belen Teichmann and Victoria Azarenka pushed each other even further, all the way to a deciding first-to-10-points tiebreak. Our player came through the three-hour contest and booked her place in the Last 16. We’re on Teichmann at day-one prices of 75/1, 66/1 & 50/1. The Swiss 24-year-old is now 22/1.
There was to be no dream run for French teenager Diane Parry, outplayed by Sloane Stephens, who is so far having one of her good weeks. But yesterday’s outsider plays at 100/1+ proved a worthwhile exercise for us, with Martina Trevisan winning again in straight sets. The Italian is yet to drop a set so far, and heads into the Last 16 at Roland Garros for the second time in her career. The Italian left-hander’s winning streak is up to eight matches in a row – and still nobody is talking about her. That’s fine by us though. I’m glad to have Trevisan in the Outright Winner book, Each Way. The 28-year-old is now 66/1 at best, and 50/1 in general.
We’ve got two more players looking to reach the Last 16 today. Jessica Pegula in the top half of the women’s draw. And Daniil Medvedev in the bottom half of the men’s.
On the radar on Day 7…
There are a total of 16 matches taking place today across the men’s & women’s 3rd round. Here are my betting notes:
Double Faults expected…
Camila Giorgi v Aryna Sabalenka should be fun, if a little stop-start. The head-to-head is 1-1. These two thump the ball as hard as they can; they know no other way to play. Expect plenty of ferocious ball-striking, some moments of brilliance – and also a stack of unforced errors.
Double Faults are something to look out for as a betting angle here. Giorgi has served more double faults than aces in her two matches so far this week. Sabalenka has been having trouble with her serve all season, and currently sits in the unwanted 1st place position on the WTA stats leader-board for Most Double Faults in 2022. She finished top of the chart in 2021 and 2020, too. Giorgi was 6th on the tour for double faults last year, and 7th the season before.
Both women served 9 DF’s each in their 1st round match. And in their last meeting, they combined to produce a total of 17. Bet365 have a variety of Double Faults Totals available, for example 15+ in the match at 8/15 (1.53). The individual player options include Giorgi 8+ Double Faults at Evens (2.0), and Sabalenka 10+ at 10/11 (1.91).
Bagels on the menu (again)…
World no.1 and odds-on tournament favourite Iga Swiatek continues to be one to follow for ‘bagel’ bets – she’s landed a 6-0 set in both matches so far this week. During her current 30-match winning streak, the dominant Pole has racked up 14 of those whitewash set scores. Next up to try and take some games off the 20-year-old is world no.95 Danko Kovinic.
The bookies are shortening up their markets on Swiatek, as she is threatening to move into prime-era Steffi Graf/ Serena Williams levels of opponent annihilation. Under 16.5 Total Games in the match is 8/11 (1.73) with Bet365, and shorter than that elsewhere. Swiatek -7.5 Games Handicap is also odds-on, 4/6 (1.67) with Bet365, and 4/7 (1.57) with Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.
Bookmakers with a 1st Set Correct Score market include those names above, along with William Hill, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, Betway, Sporting Index Fixed Odds. Hills are the best price there, with Swiatek 6-0 at 11/2 (6.5). And as we discussed the other day, Iga also has scarily-good credentials for 6-1 and 6-2 score-lines. In-play betting will allow you to target those scores in the 2nd Set (and 3rd Set, if Kovinic manages to win one).
Gilles is not finished yet…
The bet I like today is Gilles Simon at 4/1 and bigger to beat Marin Cilic. These two have been around for a long time; Simon is 37 years of age, and has announced that this will be his final season before hanging up his racket. The Frenchman is scribing a fairy-tale final flourish in front of his home fans, reaching the 3rd round against the odds. That includes a huge 12/1 upset win in the 1st round, taking out world no.18 Pablo Carreno-Busta in five sets.
Age 33, Cilic is expected to be on the tour for a good few more campaigns yet. The Croatian won’t envy the task at hand today, though… the world no.23 is favourite to beat no.158 Simon, well aware of the home crowd making big noise for their man, in a match that’s been given the full treatment by being scheduled in the main stadium, Court Philippe-Chatrier. Cilic has wilted a little before in such situations; he can get nervy under pressure. Watch out for his ‘twitchy’ foot/ leg when serving at tight moments.
The clencher for a bet here is that Simon boasts a 6-1 career head-to-head over Cilic. That’s a pretty significant record, and suggests that Gilles’ tricky game is one that Marin struggles to deal with.
It’s also worth noting that all three of their previous Grand Slam encounters have gone the distance to five sets – at the US Open, Australian Open, and Wimbledon. In the Total Sets market, it’s 4/1 for these guys to complete the full house at the French Open today – and this is a match that I can really see becoming a five-set epic.
Ones to Watch picks:
French Open 2022
Gilles Simon v Marin Cilic
Simon v Cilic is the third match on centre court, so it’ll be 2pm+ for that one.
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 8 email.
Enjoy the tennis…