Tennis Betting Advice - May 2023
WTA Rome – a 4/1 pick for this afternoon...
Tuesday 9th May 2023
We had a classic Ones to Watch scenario on Sunday afternoon. With our big-price underdog pick, Jan-Lennard Struff. Taking on the world no.2, home favourite & reigning champion, Carlos Alcaraz – in the ATP Madrid Masters final…
In the end, the short-odds favourite prevailed. But our man Struff put in a strong performance, taking a set off the 20-year-old Spanish superstar-in-the-making.
The runner-up prize…
At the start of the tournament, Alcaraz had gone off as the odds-on favourite to win the trophy outright, at just 10/11 (1.91). In comparison, Struff had actually lost in qualifying. Then granted a ‘Lucky Loser’ entry into the event, due to another competitor pulling out injured. At that point, the German was a 200/1 rank outsider…
We got on Jan-Lennard at 35/1 or 33/1 last week, after the 3rd round. An Each Way payout for reaching the final is a welcome return to the trophy match for us. This summer, you & I will be looking to see one or two go our way for the full win, at big odds…
WTA Rome – Parks v Kontaveit…
This week, we’re off to Rome for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia – otherwise known as the Rome Masters. With both the men & women in action in this near two-week event, which runs from today until next Sunday (men’s final 21st May).
With the big-name seeds granted a Bye through to the 2nd round, we don’t need to rush to get our Outright Winner picks down. As shown last week in Madrid, we can even wait until week two of a big Masters 1000 tournament like this, and still grab an attractive Each Way price.
I’m got one match selection for us today. With Alycia Parks taking on Anett Kontaveit in the women’s 1st round, at around 2.30pm UK time – although they’ll probably be on court a bit later than that…
I’d love to know Alycia Parks’ game-plan today…
The 22-year-old American goes off as the match underdog here. But riding a career-high ranking of no.49, with bags of potential to go higher, Parks is on the radar as ‘one to watch’ this season and beyond…
While clay is definitely not her best surface, the big-serving American showed that she can do damage on the red stuff, beating former world no.1 Victoria Azarenka in Madrid on 28th April.
And I’d hope that Parks is going to throw her weight around today, and really try and impose herself on the match…
Because today’s match-up is very much about the state – physical and mental – of the opponent…
Anett Kontaveit is a former Ones to Watch regular. The 27-year-old Estonian appears to be by all accounts one of the most likeable players on the tour. As we’ve discussed before with the likes of ‘nice guy’ Hubert Hurkacz, I sometimes wonder if these kinds of players lack the true, ruthless cutting-edge needed to really strike big in this sport…
As with Hurkacz, Kontaveit is yet to fulfil her potential by reaching a Grand Slam final. Indeed, Anett has never got past the quarter-final stage of a Major (Australian Open, hard courts, 2020). I don’t want to sound harsh, but at the top level, reaching no.2 in the world – as Kontaveit did last year – you’re always going to have your critics if you haven’t managed to threaten for the Grand Slam honours at Melbourne Park, Roland Garros, Wimbledon, or Flushing Meadows.
More significant for today’s match, is that the current world no.82 is coming into this clay-court season after a serious injury lay-off. Anett missed a couple of months off the tour with a lower back injury, and has said that it might never fully heal. It’s something she’ll have to manage from here on. And that plants a psychological seed of doubt…
On experience, Kontaveit as the favourite today makes complete sense. On 2023 form and current rankings, Parks is ahead…
The American can be backed at 13/8 (2.63) or 6/4 (2.5) to win. Although I’m a fan of her big ball-striking, Alycia can be hit or miss, and throw in a few ugly double faults. With that in mind, and with Kontaveit on a journey to recover her flow, too. I foresee a scrappy match on the Rome clay this afternoon. And that leads me to the biggest price of the four options in the Set Betting market – Parks to win 2-1 at around 4/1 (5.0). With a couple of firms going bigger at 24/5 (5.8) or 9/2 (5.5) – see below.
You may wish to simply back Parks as the match underdog. But in terms of a Ones to Watch price, I reckon we can squeeze out the most juice here by taking the bigger odds for Parks to win in a three-set struggle…
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Ones to Watch picks:
WTA Rome – Internazionali BNL d’Italia
Alycia Parks v Anett Kontaveit
Match scheduled 2.30pm+, UK time
You can watch the Rome matches live on Amazon Prime Video. As well as via Live Streaming on bookies sites such as Bet365.
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I’ll be back during this week & next with much more from Rome. And I also have a service announcement to tell you about – more on that very soon…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson