Tennis Betting Advice - May 2023
WTA Rome: 4/1 is just too big...
Wednesday 17th May 2023
I’ve got a straight-up ‘price pick’ for you today…
Swiatek v Rybakina tonight…
As soon as it became apparent that Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina would be meeting in the WTA Rome quarter finals, I was keen to see what price the bookies would go up with for the underdog…
I’m pleasantly surprised by the answer. With bookies offering 4/1 for the Kazakh player to take out the world no.1 and two-time reigning Rome champion...
Yes, Swiatek is on a 14-match winning streak at this tournament going back to 2021. Yes, the Pole is played 13 won 12 on clay so far this season…
But I watched Iga’s match against Donna Vekic yesterday, and the no.1 was not firing on all cylinders at all. She gave plenty of chances and errors to her opponent. Swiatek is so good, of course, that she still won that match in straight sets, 6-3, 6-4.
But today’s opponent is a whole different challenge…
I opposed Rybakina last week, in her first match of the tournament. After shaking off some early rust, Elena won that one 7-6, 6-1. And she’s only improved since then. Coming through two more encounters (one via retirement from her opponent). And in the last round, on Monday, the Wimbledon champ overcame pre-match underdog odds to swat aside 2019 French Open runner-up Marketa Vondrousova in straight sets, 6-3, 6-3.
Maybe the Kazakh representative is just starting to find her feet this clay season…
4/1 is too big…
While teenage French Open winner Swiatek is clearly the more accomplished on this playing surface. Rybakina is being underrated here in my opinion. This is a player who has won one of her three career WTA Tour titles on clay. And would be ranked higher than her current career-high of no.6 in the world – or at least have got there sooner – if ranking points had been awarded at Wimbledon last summer.
Finally, and perhaps most significantly for today’s bet, is the head-to-head: Rybakina has already beaten Swiatek twice in a row this year, both times in straight sets and at big events (Australian Open and Indian Wells).
Overall, Elena leads Iga, 3-1 in all events, including one exhibition match. None of those were on clay. But the cold and wet weather has been making conditions heavy here in the Italian capital – and today’s scheduled night match could add to the sense of this clash turning into a slug-fest. And when it comes to racket power, Rybakina is right there and able to more than hold her own against the world no.1…
Put simply, this is a match-up between two of the world’s best players right now: Swiatek has won two of the last four women’s Grand Slam titles. While Rybakina has made the final in two of the last three ‘Slams, winning one. In that context, almost regardless of the playing surface, odds of 4/1 for the underdog look too big in this two-horse race.
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Ones to Watch picks:
WTA Rome – Internazionali BNL d’Italia
Match Winner:
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The match is scheduled last on Centre Court in Rome tonight, 7.30pm or after. You can watch live on Amazon Prime Video, or live streaming with the likes of Bet365.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson