Tennis Betting Advice - May 2023
French Open - Day 1: Dark horses at 40/1 and 66/1...
Sunday 28th May 2023
Good morning and welcome to Day 1 of your French Open 2023 Daily Service. Play starts in Paris from 10am, UK time…
Every day for the next two weeks, I’ll be hitting your inbox with my thoughts, facts, picks & advice for the second Grand Slam tournament of the season…
Including analysis of the Outright Winner markets with our own very particular take on the betting prospects: we back underdogs - because the favourites don’t always win…
The Ones to Watch mantra is this: we back appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices.
We’ll be looking at the men’s Outright market over the next couple of days. With record 14-time Roland Garros champion Rafael Nadal absent this year, there’s certainly scope for there to be a new name on the trophy a fortnight from now.
In the women’s, the top seed, world no.1 & reigning champ, Iga Swiatek is the odds-on favourite. The Pole is just 5/6 (1.83) and 8/11 (1.73) in general to win what would be a remarkable third French Open title by the age of 22.
Swiatek is in the top half of the draw. The bottom half gets proceedings underway today, and it’s in this section of the field that we might do our best Each Way hunting…
Dark horses at 40/1 and 66/1…
Twelve months ago, MARIA SAKKARI went off as a 16/1 shot here in the French capital, after reaching the semi finals the year before. This time we can get 40/1 and even 50/1 - for a player arriving in a significantly better frame of mind…
That 2020 semi-final heartbreaker left a lot of mental scar tissue - there were plenty of tears in the aftermath for the Greek, who had a match point to reach what would’ve been a maiden Grand Slam final.
The current world no.8 and former no.3, Sakkari only managed the 2nd round last year. But as she has since candidly discussed how badly her mental health was suffering back then. The likeable 27-year-old says she is arriving in Paris in 2023 happy and up for the fight…
There’s a bit of interesting symmetry today, with Sakkari facing the player who beat her by a narrow 7-6, 7-6 score-line here in the French Open last year - Karolina Muchova…
I like Muchova a lot; indeed, she’s our early-bird pick as a 66/1 Wimbledon outsider for this summer. But in terms of who I believe right now can last the two-week slog here in Paris with the particularly rigorous demands of clay-court tennis, then the super-fit and athletic Sakkari gets my nod here. Whoever comes through this 1st round match today has a great chance to put a dark-horse run together in this half of the women’s draw.
Here’s what Maria told the press ahead of today’s match-up with Muchova:
“We played last year here, I was in a very dark place, mentally. I wasn’t anywhere near compared to how I feel this year, mentally, physically, tennis-wise and everything.”
The other day-one name I want to get in the book as an Each Way outsider from the bottom section of the women’s field is QINWEN ZHENG - available at 66/1 and 50/1…
The 20-year-old Chinese is a player we’ve backed before at big odds. Qinwen Zheng has plenty of Ones to Watch credentials - she seems to relish the big matches and raise her game against big-name opponents. For example, here at the French Open last year, Zheng was the only woman who managed to take a set off of eventual champ Swiatek. And the Chinese youngster said afterwards that it could’ve been a different story, had she not been hampered on the day by period pains.
Zheng arrives here this week with a career-high ranking of no.19 in the world. With her most recent outing being a quietly promising quarter-final run at the WTA 1000 ‘Masters’ event in Rome this month. Qinwen tends to fly under the radar a bit, but watch her play and you’ll see why I like her: a calm demeanour, a big serve, and some classy & powerful groundstrokes. There’s a lot to like about this 20-year-old; she’s on the up, and we should follow her at big prices this season and beyond.
Five-set chances at 47/1…
Moving on to the men’s event now, there are three matches that catch the eye on this opening Sunday as potential five-set battles…
I have these down as very close calls, that could see long & winding scoreboards, plenty of entertainment - and the chance of a big-odds payout…
Ben Shelton v Lorenzo Sonego
Alexander Shevchenko v Oscar Otte
Lucas Pouille v Jurij Rodionov
Two ways to play the ‘long match’ angle here:
1) Back the ‘Over’ option in the Total Games markets. With the following treble paying 11/2 (6.5) with William Hill. And various options also available with the likes of Bet365, Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Betway…
Unfortunately the Oddschecker website doesn’t give you all the markets & prices, so we have to shop around - and I make William Hill the best place for these Total Games picks today:
Ben Shelton v Lorenzo Sonego - Over 37.5 Games @ 4/5 (1.8)
Alexander Shevchenko v Oscar Otte - Over 36.5 Games @ 10/11 (1.91)
Lucas Pouille v Jurij Rodionov - Over 38.5 Games @ 10/11 (1.91)
Treble @ 11/2 (6.5)
2) Back 5 Sets in the Total Sets markets. Different bookies call this bet by different names (they don’t make it easy for us, do they?). For example, Bet365 have this option down as ‘Five Setter.’ Skybet have Over 4.5 Sets in their ‘Alternative Total Sets’ market. Betway also have Over 4.5 Sets. Ladbrokes & Coral call it 5 Sets in the Total Sets market.
William Hill is again a good place to go for 5 Sets in these three targeted matches, with their market simply called Total Sets…
Ben Shelton v Lorenzo Sonego - 5 Sets @ 11/4 (3.75)
Alexander Shevchenko v Oscar Otte - 5 Sets @ 27/10 (3.7)
Lucas Pouille v Jurij Rodionov - 5 Sets @ 5/2 (3.5)
The treble comes out at 47.5/1 (48.5). My advice here is to split a stake four ways across a Trixie (made up of three doubles & the treble).
Those three men’s matches are all scheduled for this afternoon, from around 2pm, depending on the duration of the earlier matches…
You can watch the French Open live on Eurosport.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks - French Open:
Women’s Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Maria Sakkari @ 50/1 Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 40/1 Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet
Qinwen Zheng @ 66/1 Boylesports, Unibet, 60/1 BetVictor, 50/1 Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred
Men’s matches, Sunday:
‘Over’ Total Games Treble as listed above @ 11/2 William Hill
‘5 Sets’ Total Sets Trixie as listed above @ 47.5/1 William Hill
----------------------------------------------------------------
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Day 2 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone