Tennis Betting Advice - May 2023
French Open - Day 2: A pair of 100/1 outsiders...
Monday 29th May 2023
Good morning and welcome to Day 2 of your French Open 2023 Daily Service.
Every day for the next two weeks, I’ll be hitting your inbox with my thoughts, facts, picks & advice for the second Grand Slam tournament of the season…
When it comes to the Outright Winner markets, we have our own very particular take on the betting prospects: we back underdogs - because the favourites don’t always win…
The Ones to Watch mantra is this: we back appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices.
That approach inevitably means that we back more losers than winners. The upside being, when we do win - we win big.
Yesterday we had to endure one of our players going out in the very 1st round (40/1 Maria Sakkari).
But it was plain sailing watching our other day-one women’s Each Way outsider, Qinwen Zheng, who breezed through her opening match in straight sets. The 20-year-old from China is still 66/1 with Unibet as I write this morning, and 50/1 at Bet365, BetVictor, and Betway (with the preferable Each Way terms of 1/2 odds for 1-2 places).
Beat the best…
In the women’s game, there are three dominant players right now. French Open champion, 2023 favourite & world no.1, Iga Swiatek. Australian Open winner & world no.2, Aryna Sabalenka. And Wimbledon champ & world no.4, Elena Rybakina…
Swiatek is odds-on to defend her trophy, at 5/6 (1.83) in general. With Sabalenka and Rybakina no bigger than 6/1 each (7.0).
Sabalenka started with a 2-0 win on Sunday, in the bottom half of the draw. Swiatek and Rybakina are in the top half, and don’t start their campaigns until Tuesday.
In the Name the Finalists market, Bet365 make ‘Swiatek v Sabalenka’ the 3/1 favourite. Followed by ‘Rybakina v Sabalenka’ at 12/1.
Those are the three names to beat in the women’s event…
We’ll be looking at some much bigger prices in the days to come. Including a pair of 100/1 shots to get in the book today…
“Slower balls, but faster courts”...
I picked up on an interesting comment from Laura Robson yesterday. The former player, now a presenter & pundit, said that the early word from the players since arriving at Roland Garros is that this year’s tournament has “slower balls, but faster courts”...
That’s a potentially intriguing little nugget of info. And especially while the weather remains clear and sunny, such playing conditions could favour players who tend to do well on fast courts, while also benefiting from an extra bit of time to tee up their shots on the bounce…
I like that combo for our 66/1 women’s pick Qinwen Zheng. And while those conditions could also suit the power-hitters at the top of the betting (Sabalenka and Rybakina hit the ball as hard or harder than anyone right now). It also alerts me to LIUDMILA SAMSONOVA at 100/1…
The 24-year-old Russian is in the bottom half of the draw, and started yesterday with a dominant 6-0, 6-1 win. This is the first time that current world no.15 Samsonova has been past the 1st round here at Roland Garros. For a player who has won more matches in her career on clay than on any other individual surface, perhaps this year we’ll see her make her mark in Paris…
Last year, we backed Samsonova at big odds at the US Open, where she impressed in reaching week two (4th round - last 16). After three WTA titles in 2022, Liudmila showed form again at the start of this season, making the final on hard courts in Abu Dhabi. A recent 6-2, 6-0 thumping of 2017 French Open champ Jelena Ostapenko on clay at altitude in Madrid could bode well for her chances this fortnight… conditions suited big servers and powerful hitters in Madrid.
Samsonova could face 2021 Roland Garros runner-up and fellow Russian, Anastasia Pavyluchenkova in the next round. The 31-year-old Pavlyuchenkova is coming back after a long layoff, missing the French Open last year - and currently trading at as big as 900/1 with Unibet to finally achieve Grand Slam glory this time out. In these circumstances, I prefer the younger player, with Liudmila Samsonova at 100/1 a name to get in the book as an outsider with the chance to put a streak together here.
Questing for value in the men’s event…
The two favourites for the men’s title are both in action today, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. The respective 1st and 3rd seeds, those two could meet in the semi finals if the draw follows the rankings. Alcaraz is 13/8 (2.63) in general for the trophy, with Djokovic at 12/5 (3.4).
In the bottom half, 2nd seed Daniil Medvedev is around 9/1 (10.0) to win the tournament. I’ve flagged up the Russian at 33/1+ here in recent years. We got our big payout from Daniil at Rome earlier this month (28/1, 22/1). The clay-court cat is now out of the bag for the world no.2. And with no Rafael Nadal in the field this year - taking a chunk out of the other players' Outright odds, Medvedev’s price is no longer enticing for me. That doesn’t mean I don’t think he’s good enough to win it, though.
Likewise for youngster Holger Rune, who we’ve backed (and won with) at odds of 33/1 before. The 20-year-old Dane made the quarter finals as a teenager on his French Open debut last season. Now at a new career-high ranking of no.6 in the world, Holger goes off at no better than 9/1 to win a maiden Grand Slam this fortnight.
For much, much bigger prices…
Elsewhere in the bottom half of the draw, our old friend TAYLOR FRITZ catches the eye as an underdog contender at 100/1 and 80/1…
The American won Indian Wells 2022 for us at those prices. And we have Taylor in the book for the next two Grand Slams this summer, 50/1 or 40/1 for Wimbledon, and 33/1 for the US Open. This spring, Fritz has announced himself as a clay-court challenger, too…
The 25-year-old world no.8 is a very hard worker, and it’s clear that Taylor has committed to improving his game on clay - a surface that Americans generally don’t tend to be naturally at home on (growing up on hard courts). This year, Fritz has entered five clay events in Europe - and reached the semi-finals in three of them…
Taylor Fritz at large odds very much has the potential to have his best-ever French Open this year. And if anyone like Rune or Medvedev slips up on this side of the draw, this genuine Top 10, world-class competitor can strike…
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Ones to Watch picks - French Open:
Women’s Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Men’s Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
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You can watch the French Open live on Eurosport.
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Day 3 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone