Tennis Betting Advice - May 2023
French Open - Day 3: Match picks, and banana skins...
Tuesday 30th May 2023
Good morning and welcome to Day 3 of your French Open 2023 Daily Service. Play starts at 10am…
Every day for the next two weeks, I’ll be hitting your inbox with my analysis, picks & advice for the second Grand Slam tournament of the season…
In the book so far…
When it comes to the Outright Winner markets, we have our own very particular take on the betting prospects: we back underdogs - because the favourites don’t always win…
The Ones to Watch mantra is this: we back appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices.
Our open, Each Way bets in the French Open Outright Winner markets:
Women’s - Qinwen Zheng @ 66/1, 50/1
Women’s - Liudmila Samsonova @ 120/1, 100/1
Men’s - Taylor Fritz @ 100/1, 80/1
And the upsets begin…
The 1st round is spread over three days at Roland Garros; at the end of today’s play, all 256 players in the men’s & women’s draws will have taken to the court.
Monday saw the start of the upsets. With a few big-price shocks in the Match Winner markets…
With the women’s 10th, 11th, and 12th seeds all crashing out - Petra Kvitova, Veronika Kudermetova, and Belinda Bencic - with a couple of 5/1+ underdog victories in that list.
Results like that not only prove our point that the big-name favourites can be taken on. They also open up the draw for our tournament selections to take a shot at the trophy.
1) Potential banana skin today - Men’s…
After largely straightforward 1st-round wins for the two men’s title favourites yesterday, with Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic both posting straight-sets, 3-0 victories. We get a first look of the week at some more of the big contenders today…
Including last year’s debut quarter-finalist Holger Rune, this month’s Rome Masters champion Daniil Medvedev. And the 2022 French Open runner-up, Casper Ruud.
I’m a fan of all three players. But I have to play the form and the prices as I see them. And right now, former Ones to Watch youngster Casper Ruud is not firing on all cylinders…
Casper had a momentous year in 2022. Reaching the final in two of the four Grand Slams (French Open and US Open) - but having to settle for the runner-up trophy in both. The Norwegian was unfortunate perhaps to run into living legend Rafa Nadal in Roland Garros final, and Next Big Thing (and now world no.1) Carlos Alcaraz in New York. Then again, to be the best - you have to beat the best…
There’s a sense that Ruud has lost some of his momentum this season. And it’s not just a feeling. The formbook doesn’t lie in this respect. Being ranked no.4 in the world and still just 24 years of age, Casper will have better starts to the year in times to come. But so far in 2023, he’s only posted a modest 16-11 match win-loss record in this campaign.
Granted, on his favoured clay - certainly the surface where Ruud first showed the tennis world what his game is all about - the Scandinavian has done better than most players this term. Winning the ATP 250 Estoril title in April, as the 5/2 (3.5) favourite. And making the semi finals in Rome this month.
However, along the way this spring, I’ve witnessed Casper putting in several ‘flat’ performances. Where he’s either managed to labour to get the win in a long match, without being particularly impressive. Or fallen to a pre-match underdog - as has happened in four of his last five clay-court tournaments…
None of those defeats in Genena, Madrid, Barcelona, or Monte Carlo were to anyone priced as high or ranked as low as today’s opponent, Elias Ymer. But there’s reason to believe the 27-year-old from Sweden could throw down another potential banana skin for his Norwegian counterpart this morning.
Ymer v Ruud is the first match on Court Suzanne-Lenglen today (10am UK time, 11am in Paris). And it’s unlikely that the second-biggest stadium at Roland Garros will be full to the rafters for the early start. A lack of atmosphere in the stands can only add to the ‘flat’ feeling around Ruud at the moment. In comparison, his fellow 2022 Grand Slam finalist, world no.1 Alcaraz played to a noisy, packed crowd on Monday afternoon - who were 99.9% all there to see the Spaniard.
Elias Ymer is making only his third main-draw appearance in Paris. He may be nervous. But Elias (and his younger brother Mikael, also a pro player - recently in the news for getting disqualified in Lyon after smashing his racket against the umpire’s chair) doesn’t often exude the air of someone riddled by nerves. And after coming through the qualifying rounds last week with three out of three, straight-sets 2-0 wins. Elias may be quietly confident of making a real fist of this…
Ymer has played Ruud once before, taking a set off his younger opponent at the Phoenix Challenger event on hard courts in the USA in 2019. It’s hard to read too much into that result. But that recent French Open qualifying form certainly hints at a chance for the underdog this morning.
Elias is as big as 10/1 and 9/1 to win the match. The world no.155 taking out last year’s runner-up and the current world no.4 would most definitely be a big shock. But it’s much more plausible to me that the outsider can win a set and make his presence felt on the scoreboard here…
The pressure is all on Ruud. He’s dropped at least one set in four of his last seven 1st-round matches at the Grand Slams. Including losing the first set in his opening match two years running, here at Roland Garros. Ymer is 4/1 to win the First Set.
Other tangible ways to support the underdog include backing Ymer with a head-start in the Handicap market. For example, Ymer +8.5 Games Handicap is 5/6 (1.83) with Bet365. The same firm are also offering 6/5 (2.2) for the Swedish outsider To Win a Set in the match.
But, the bet for me is Ruud to win 3-1 in the Set Betting market, at odds of 16/5 (4.2). Something of a percentage-play move. With the take being that the short-price match favourite - and let it be said, with all due respect, clearly the better tennis player - can find a way to get the job done in this 1st-round encounter. Albeit with a hiccup along the way.
2) Potential banana skin today - Women’s…
With Aryna Sabalenka already through to round two, the women’s event sees the two other big favourites take to the court today. With world no.1 Iga Swiatek overwhelmingly short odds to win her first match, against Cristina Bucsa. With the reigning champ trading at the minimum price of 1/100 (1.01) with Bet365. That’s a £100 stake to win £1, folks!
And Elena Rybakina is also very short odds-on, at 1/14 (1.07) to beat 16-year-old Brenda Fruhvirtova (younger sister of 18-year-old Linda, who was knocked out yesterday).
One big name that could struggle to get going today though, is Ons Jabeur…
As with Casper Ruud, Jabeur made two out of four Grand Slam finals last year - but couldn’t get over the line and break her Major duck. Beaten by Rybakina in the Wimbledon final, and then by Swiatek at the US Open. This year, injury, and a loss of form/ confidence has followed…
As with Ruud, Ons has still managed to win a title. Taking the honours on the ‘green clay’ at the WTA 500 event in Charleston, USA in April, as a 5/1 favourite. But since then, the 28-year-old world no.7 has struggled again. With the Tunisian retiring mid-match against Swiatek in Stuttgart. Then playing just one French Open warm-up match this month, beaten in straight sets by Paula Badosa in Rome.
Ons says she’s ‘100%’ fit for this week in Paris. We’ll see how she shows up. In her comments to the press, the former world no.2 still sounds a little cautious.
One thing’s for sure: today’s 1st-round opponent arrives in the form of her life…
Lucia Bronzetti won her first WTA title last week, taking the silverware in Rabat, Morocco. Extending her current run to eight out of nine match wins on clay. The 24-year-old, ranked no.65, should be high on confidence and up for the challenge in front of her today.
Jabeur lost in the very 1st round here at the French Open last year…
Bronzetti v Jabeur is the opening match on centre court this morning - Court Philippe-Chatrier at 10.45am UK time, 11.45am Paris…
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Jabeur come out cold here, and make a slow start. The match upset is 7/2 (4.5). Bronzetti is 6/5 (2.2) To Win a Set, and 4/5 (1.8) with a +5.5 Games Handicap at Bet365.
Once again though, I can see the seeded player finding a way to get the ‘W.’ But I won’t be taking odds of just 1/5 (1.2) for Jabeur in the standard Match Winner betting. The Top 10 player to win 2-1 in the Set Betting market is the route I’m taking, at odds of 3/1 (4.0).
Match Winner picks…
I’ve got my eye on a few teenage newcomers in the women’s draw this week. Including the 2021 French Open Girls’ champion, Linda Noskova…
The 18-year-old Czech takes on 28-year-old Danka Kovinic today, at around midday. On the rankings, this is the world no.50 teenager against the world no.68. And while I respect Kovinic’s credentials, I want to be with the player with the greatest upside in their potential - and that’s star of the future, Noskova. Odds of 8/11 (1.73) for the win are generally available.
And in the men’s today, I like two favourites to get the job done this afternoon - with the double coming out at 10/11 (1.91) or 4/5 (1.8). See below…
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Ones to Watch picks - French Open:
Elias Ymer v Casper Ruud - 10am:
Lucia Bronzetti v Ons Jabeur - 10.45am:
Match Winner picks:
Linda Noskova to beat Danka Kovinic @ 8/11 (1.73) Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports
Double: Francisco Cerundolo to beat Jaume Munar, and Yannick Hanfmann to beat Thiago Monteiro @ 10/11 (1.91) William Hill, 4/5+ (1.8+) Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway
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You can watch the French Open live on Eurosport.
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Day 4 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone