Tennis Betting Advice - May 2023
French Open - Day 4: She couldn't, could she...?
Wednesday 31st May 2023
Good morning and welcome to Day 4 of your French Open 2023 Daily Service. Play starts at 10am…
Every day of the tournament, I’ll be hitting your inbox with my analysis, picks & advice for the second Grand Slam of the season…
Three outsiders already in the book…
When it comes to the Outright Winner markets, we have our own very particular take on the betting prospects: we back underdogs - because the favourites don’t always win…
The Ones to Watch mantra is this: we back appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices.
Our current open, Each Way bets in the French Open Outright Winner markets:
Women’s - Qinwen Zheng @ 66/1, 50/1
Women’s - Liudmila Samsonova @ 120/1, 100/1
Men’s - Taylor Fritz @ 100/1, 80/1
The 2nd round begins today. Qinwen Zheng and Luidmila Samsonova will both be in action.
Taylor Fritz started well yesterday, with a 6-2, 6-1, 6-1 win in his 1st round encounter with fellow American, Michael Mmoh. An eye-catching and encouraging stat there was Taylor winning 94% of his 1st Serve Points.
And with world no.2 Daniil Medvedev knocked out on Tuesday, that only helps open up the bottom half of the draw for an outsider like Fritz. Despite Medvedev going out, our man Fritz can still be backed at 80/1 and 66/1 Each Way…
Five-set classics, long matches - and a couple of shocks…
We talked about shocks and upsets yesterday. I said it would be a big one if world no.155 Elias Ymer was to take out world no.4 Casper Ruud at 10/1. That didn’t happen. But there was a seismic 10/1 underdog victory on Tuesday, with an even bigger rankings gap…
Thiago Seyboth Wild knocked out Medvedev - the world no.172 overcoming the no.2…
The Brazilian’s against-the-odds victory came via a five-set epic. And five-set battles have been a theme of the opening three days in the men’s event:
That includes some very long matches, hitting four and even five hours…
Indeed, our men’s Match Winner double was finally landed last night, with Yannick Hanfmann on court for a good five hours as he fended off a comeback and then came from a set down in the deciding set to eventually beat Thiago Monteiro, 3-2. It would have been a lot less stressful had the German taken his first match point for what would’ve been a much more straightforward 3-0 win, a couple of hours earlier (!).
French crowd-pleaser Gael Monfils was still on court when I was brushing my teeth for bed - and France is an hour ahead. The 36-year-old was staring defeat in the face, 0-4 down in the final set against Sebastian Baez, with the Argentinean some 14 years his junior. But Gael, limping and grimacing with cramp, yet fuelled by the vocal and passionate Parisian fans, produced some amazing shotmaking to somehow turn the match in his favour. It was sensational stuff.
As a tennis fan, that Monfils v Baez five-set classic played under the lights was nothing less than sheer entertainment. I can see why some people are against the best-of-five-sets format, seeing as it’s now only played in the men’s Grand Slams, and nowhere else all season. And a stack of three-hour-plus matches are maybe not the most marketable sporting ‘product’ in this day and age. But after yesterday’s drama and excitement, I’m not complaining.
‘Go the Distance’ bets:
The women’s draw also saw a shock yesterday. With the 2021 French Open champion and this year’s 13th seed Barbora Krejcickova sent packing in the 1st round, by world no.66 Lesia Tsurenko.
We continue to move forward with an open mind when it comes to outside chances…
She couldn’t, could she…?
If you’ve been with me on Ones to Watch for some time, then you’ll know all about Sloane Stephens…
The American is constantly described (by me) as an enigma. Capable of brilliance out of nowhere at some tournaments, and dreadful results and losing streaks at others. The fact remains though, when Sloane is up for it, she can beat anyone.
And when Stephens gets on a roll, you should pay attention - especially when there are massive prices on the table…
Stephens won the US Open for us at 40/1 in 2017. Arriving at that Grand Slam with no previous Major trophy wins, on the comeback from injury having dropped so low in the rankings that she almost fell off the map completely.
The American tends to be one to produce a big performance when nobody is expecting it. And she likes the big stage. When Sloane won the prestigious Miami Open title in 2018, she went off at 66/1.
Since then, Sloane has rewarded us with an Each Way payout here at the French Open in 2018, reaching the final and finishing runner-up when we backed her at 25/1 Each Way, mid-tournament.
More recently, the now 30-year-old has posted quarter-final runs here at Roland Garros in both 2019 and 2022…
After a comprehensive 1st-round victory over world no.16 Karolina Pliskova this week, current no.30 Stephens is looking good on clay in 2023…
After that win, Sloane said that clay is her favourite surface. And, noting that she didn’t have much preparation on the surface last year, yet still made the quarter finals. The canny right-hander sounds like she’s headed to Paris this year with a plan…
“I needed to get a lot of matches under my belt. This is my favourite surface. So last year, my clay season wasn't great, but I played amazing at Roland-Garros last year, and this year I really wanted to get matches and play a lot and to see where that got me.”
So far on clay this spring, Sloane has won 11 out of 15 matches. A relatively small sample of form maybe, but that’s a lot more than some bigger names have posted. And a 73% win-rate on a particular playing surface is always something to take note of…
The talented American won the lower-tier, ITF Saint-Malo event on clay in France at the start of May. A piece of below-the-radar French form that might just foreshadow another big outsider run at Roland Garros this week & next…
Sloane went on to make the semi finals at WTA Rabat in Morocco on the eve of the French Open.
Here in Paris at the clay-court ‘Slam, Stephens has a 33-11 career win-loss record. And that 75% win-rate is a French Open formbook nugget that we can’t ignore…
Odds of 100/1+ across the board make Sloane a clear outsider proposition here. I like those prices about a player with this much talent and experience. And seeing as she could potentially face our 66/1 pick Qinwen Zheng a few days from now if things go to plan, let’s get 100/1 Stephens in the book to give us another big-odds Ones to Watch contender in the women’s event.
Match Winner picks…
I’ve got men’s and women’s match accumulators for us today…
Skybet are the top bookie to go with for these, as Skybet void your player if they retire injured, while still paying out on the winning player. Read more about bookie rules here.
Men’s - 5-fold @ 5/1
Sebastian Korda to beat Sebastian Ofner
Fabio Fognini to beat Jason Kubler
Lorenzo Musetti to beat Alexander Shevchenko
Karen Khachanov to beat Radu Albot
Denis Shapovalov to beat Matteo Arnaldi
Women’s - 6-fold @ 3/1
Elina Svitolina to beat Storm Hunter
Karolina Muchova to beat Nadia Podoroska
Anastasia Potapova to beat Maya Sheriff
Qinwen Zheng to beat Yulia Putintseva
Caroline Garcia to beat Anna Blinkova
Irina-Camilia Begu to beat Sara Errani
Play starts at 10am…
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Ones to Watch picks - French Open:
Women’s Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Match Winner picks:
Men’s matches - 5-fold acca as listed above @ 5/1 Skybet
Women’s matches - 6-fold acca as listed above @ 3/1 Skybet
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You can watch the French Open live on Eurosport.
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Day 5 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone